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August 2006
HOW HEZBOLLAH
DEFEATED ISRAEL
 PART 3: The
political war
The
aftermath of the Israel-Hezbollah war will be felt
for years, not months, and has redrawn the
political map throughout the Middle East, not just
in Israel and Lebanon. And the upshot of it all is
that if and when the US attacks Iran, it will
lose. - Alastair Crooke and Mark Perry
(Oct 13,
'06)
PART 1:
The intelligence war
PART 2: The
ground war
How
hi-tech Hezbollah called the
shots
 Making expert use
of intelligence techniques learned from
allies Iran and Syria, Hezbollah was able to
monitor and decode Israeli communications and jam
defense systems during the recent war in Lebanon.
It listened in on Israeli reservists chatting
on their mobile phones, while its own
communications remained unscathed. In
the process, at least one tenet of First World
versus Third World warfare was turned on its
head. - Iason Athanasiadis (Sep 8,
'06)
Fleeing the wrath of
Hezbollah
Hezbollah believes Israel
used Lebanese collaborators to help it root out
fighters in the Shi'ite militia during the recent
war. Now Hezbollah is looking for culprits. Hence
a (probably futile) spate of defections by
Lebanese across the border into Israel. - Iason Athanasiadis (Aug 31,
'06)
The logic of
war
Israel's destruction of a small democratic
country's infrastructure because of a minor border
incident instigated by a 3,000-man militia is
accepted as a legitimate act of self-defense. Thus
a US attack against Iran - a much larger country
with a sizable armed force whose hardline
government might be developing nuclear weapons -
would also be seen as an act of self-defense.
(Aug 22,
'06)
The
new creative destruction
Just as
the Israeli military thought that by destroying
thousands of Lebanese lives and buildings it
could take out Hezbollah, and in so doing create a
new and more favorable regional balance of power,
Hezbollah was using the same principle of creative
violence - but much more successfully. It is
Hezbollah that is instigating social and political
change in Lebanon and building a "new" Middle
East. - Mark LeVine (Aug 21, '06)
SPENGLER
The peacekeepers of
Penzance
Dwindling birth rates have turned Europeans
into the walking dead, which goes a long way
toward explaining why they are so reluctant to
send troops to Lebanon: a people without progeny
will not accept a single military casualty.
Europe's role, then, is irrelevant: all that
matters is the coming confrontation between the
United States and Iran. (Aug 21,
'06)
Mission
impossible in Lebanon
The
deployment of a large UN force in south Lebanon is
only one aspect of a complex peace strategy that
requires a parallel diplomatic track. One small
misstep, and the peacekeepers and Hezbollah would
be on a collision course. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Aug 17, '06)
Hezbollah's
arms still a reason to
fight
Whatever the spin, be it
from Israel or the US, over what was or was not
achieved by the war against Hezbollah, and no
matter how many thousands of peacekeepers are sent
into South Lebanon, one inescapable truth remains.
As long as Hezbollah remains armed - and who is
going to disarm it? - any ceasefire will be
temporary. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 16,
'06)
Amid
the bombs, unity is forged
 If the point of the
massive Israeli aerial bombardment and leveling of
villages in Lebanon was meant to strike fear in
people and open sectarian and religious divisions,
the opposite occurred. An unprecedented show of
unity emerged during the war, embodied in a
defiant "national resistance". - Herbert Docena
(Aug 16,
'06)
Frantic
search for peacekeepers
The
scramble is on to find the thousands of United
Nations peacekeeping troops pledged for Lebanon.
The UN believes that the "robust" force -
well-trained and well-equipped - will have to come
mostly from Western countries. To date there have
been no firm offers, and time is of the essence.
(Aug 16,
'06)
COMMENT
Exploding the 'terrorist'
neuron bomb
Utter the word
"terrorism" and further thought is not only
unnecessary but also unpatriotic. Under its
rubric, wars can be waged in which the killing of
civilians is merely collateral damage, not a war
crime. So where does that leave Hezbollah - and
Israel? - Ian Williams (Aug 16,
'06)
A dummy run against
Hezbollah
The ink was
barely dry on reports that the Bush administration
was involved in the planning of Israel's air
attacks against Hezbollah than the official
denials came out. Either way, with American
neo-conservatives within and outside the
government itching to attack Iran, the Israeli
operation provided a possible template for a US
assault on Iran's nuclear installations. -
Ehsan Ahrari (Aug
15, '06)
What
Israel gained - or lost
With the
guns falling silent, the blame game has begun in
Israel over what is widely seen as a botched war
against Hezbollah. The political and military
leadership are now in the firing line. (Aug 15,
'06)
Ceasefire,
or quagmire by another name
The
United Nations resolution calling for a ceasefire
in Lebanon from Monday has the potential to induce
peace, vague and indeterminate as it is. On the
other hand, it could just as easily prove the
catalyst for another civil war in Lebanon, pitting
the Lebanese army against Hezbollah, and doing
Israel's work for it. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Aug 12,
'06)
The lurking threat of war
The result of the UN ceasefire resolution is that Hezbollah should be prevented
from carrying out missile attacks on Israel, and indeed be effectively
disarmed, and without a long-term, politically divisive and costly Israeli
occupation of south Lebanon. That's the theory. - Richard M Bennett
(Aug 11, '06)
Tehran holds the key to a
ceasefire
While diplomats wrangle at the United Nations over when a ceasefire is not a
ceasefire, and other such legal niceties, the fighting continues between Israel
and Hezbollah, with the Israelis poised for a massive ground offensive. But if
the international community, especially the US, really wants to end the war, it
should look for answers in Tehran, not at the UN. - Sami Moubayed
(Aug 11, '06)
Running from commandos,
mosquitoes
 Civilians
in the Bekaa Valley live in fear of death from Israeli drones at any time of
the day or night. Hezbollah fighters, meanwhile, await the commandos who drop
from the sky. The mosquitoes aren't fussy whom they bite.
(Aug 10, '06)
Hezbollah's lack of structure
its strength
All of Hezbollah's field units are autonomous and act by themselves. They don't
need communications, they don't report everything and they don't ask for
orders. That's why they are so hard to pin down, explains a former official of
the UN monitoring force in south Lebanon. (Aug 10,
'06)
Clearing the path for US war on
Iran
9Israel calculated that it could degrade Hezbollah's rocket forces without too
many casualties by striking preemptively. This is hoped to eliminate a major
reason the Bush administration had shelved the military option for dealing with
Iran - the fear that Israel would suffer massive casualties from Hezbollah's
rockets in retaliation for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. - Gareth
Porter (Aug 9, '06)
'We are just hit-and-run
guerrillas'
Despite
its massive military advantage, Israel has done absolutely nothing to diminish
Hezbollah, a senior ideologue of the group tells Asia Times Online. And the
battle has only just begun, he says. (Aug 9, '06)
A fight to the finish
The Israelis began their campaign against Lebanon by using
bombs and missiles to achieve largely psychological ends - the humiliation of
Hezbollah. They have indeed changed the psychology of Lebanon, but not as they
expected. - Dahr Jamail (Aug 9, '06)
Iran's changing fortunes
The longer the war drags on, the more the perceptions of Iran's role in the
crisis change. Initially clearly identified as the villain of the peace for its
support of Hezbollah, Tehran is now being viewed more as an essential part of
the solution rather than a part of the problem. - Neda Bolourchi
(Aug 8, '06)
A clever and determined enemy
Assuming Israel is given enough time by the US and its
friends, its options against Hezbollah include making more use of special
forces and launching a full-scale ground invasion to seal off south Lebanon.
However, whatever option Israel chooses, it will still be faced by a determined
and clever enemy. - Richard M Bennett and David McKenzie
(Aug 8, '06)
The loser in Lebanon: The
Atlantic alliance
The UN resolution aimed at ending the war in Lebanon war almost fell apart in
acrimony between the principal sponsors, the US and France, over whether to
call a ceasefire before sending in a multinational force. In the larger sense
it exposes the growing Atlantic rift over Israel, and brings closer the time
that the US will have to decide where its loyalties really lie. - Mark Perry
and Alastair Crooke (Aug 7, '06)
Dodging drones on the road from
hell
As
more and more supply routes in south Lebanon are pounded into oblivion by
Israeli air strikes, guided by omnipresent drones, Hezbollah's logistics become
all the more taxing. No problem, commanders say, they can simply use mules.
This is only part of the truth on the road from hell.
(Aug 7, '06)
Israel takes aim at Lebanon's
soft underbelly
 With
Hezbollah dug into the rough and difficult terrain of south Lebanon and
providing stiff resistance to the Israeli drive to the strategic Litani
River, Israel wants to win the war by attacking the country's soft underbelly,
Beirut. With this in mind it is waging a psychological war aimed at forcing
Hezbollah forces in the north to react, thus providing it with the excuse it
needs. (Aug 4, '06)
US's 'kiss of death' in the Arab
world
The United States' hopes of playing midwife to a "new Middle
East" are dying fast. Every day the four-week-old Lebanon conflict continues
makes Washington more unpopular in the Muslim world. Even moderate Arab allies
are balking. - Jim Lobe (Aug 4, '06)
A strike into Hezbollah's heart
Just hours after the Israeli commando raid in Baalbek, Asia Times Online was
the first media outlet in the nearby town of Asaira, a scene of relentless
attacks. Hezbollah leaders explained how earlier failures in the area had
forced the Israelis into the daring move. And they warned that an escalation in
fighting in the Hezbollah strategic heartland would cast a menacing shadow over
Syria and Iran. (Aug 3, '06)
A force to be reckoned with
The problem with an international force in Lebanon, now mooted by Israel, is in
the details, from who will make it up to how much "robustness" they should
have. To resolve these issues, the UN is at the core. And for that to succeed,
the US must be behind the solution, rather than behind Israel. - Ian Williams (Aug
3, '06)
US giving aid - and bombs
The US has offered to provide food, medicine and humanitarian
assistance to displaced Lebanese, while at the same time supplying Israel with
some of the weapons that are killing people. There's no contradiction:
President George W Bush says he's just honoring commitments.
(Aug 3, '06)
A new face to Hezbollah's
resistance
Despite warnings from its intelligence community of a lack of information on
Hezbollah's war preparedness, Israel went ahead with its campaign to wipe out
the movement. Israel is fighting hard (literally) to make up for this
miscalculation. And as with the US in Iraq, other unforeseen forces have been
unleashed in south Lebanon. (Aug 2, '06)
Nasrallah and the three Lebanons
Lebanon's Christians, Shi'ites and Sunnis agree on only three things: the cedar
tree, the Lebanese flag and the music of diva Fayruz. They are highly divided
on Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This division, as much as the Israelis,
will dictate the course of the war. - Sami Moubayed
(Aug 2, '06)
Tehran teeters on the path to war
Iran's knee-jerk reaction to the possibility of the UN
Security Council imposing sanctions on it over its nuclear program is one of
defiance. At the same time, Tehran, by being linked with Hezbollah, has
suffered a strategic setback over the war in Lebanon. Yet if the Iranian
leaders adopt a hard line in the face of these two threats, it would pave the
way for the nightmare scenario of military confrontation. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Aug 1, '06)
Ready for the next fight
After
three weeks, the mood on the ground in southern Lebanon is that the fighting
between Israel and Hezbollah will escalate sharply. Hezbollah's fighters have
already taken to the hills in anticipation of stepped-up Israeli ground
operations announced on Tuesday. (Aug 1, '06)
On a razor's edge
Despite Iran's strong rhetoric condemning Israel's military onslaught against
Lebanon, Tehran is trying to distance itself from the crisis, and even from
Hezbollah. (Aug 1, '06)
July 2006
SPENGLER
Devil
dislikes the stink of brimstone
Iran's complaint that the US has thrown the Middle East into chaos in order to
reshape the region is a man-bites-camel story. True, Israel's onslaught on
Lebanon has presented its ally the US with a geostrategic opportunity, but it's
doubtful that President George W Bush has either the brains or the stomach to
press America's advantage. (Jul 31, '06)
Iran turns crisis into
opportunity
The extent to which Iran pulled - or is pulling - Hezbollah's
strings is a moot point. What is clear is that as long as Hezbollah's fighting
with Israel continues, Iran has an opportunity to cultivate soft power further
under circumstances that might finally transcend the Sunni-Shi'ite divide that
has long polarized the region and undercut designs for a sweeping Shi'ite
revolution. - Jason Motlagh (Jul 31, '06)
Iran will fight to its strengths
Iran accepts that its military stands little chance of
defeating the US in the event of an invasion of the country, at least using
conventional means. However, Tehran's planning for an unconventional or
guerrilla warfare campaign of resistance is far advanced. - Richard M Bennett
(Jul 31, '06)
More power to the resistance
Three
weeks of Israeli air strikes have driven many thousands of people to seek
refuge in the city of Sidon. Their numbers are largely made up of women and
children. The men, young and old, are being driven into the arms of Hezbollah
to join in the fight against Israel. (Jul 31, '06)
A war without borders in the
making
With the initial Israeli goal of a swift crippling of Hezbollah fast turning
into a nightmare quagmire in Lebanon, a much-dreaded "wider war" seems all but
inevitable. This in turn will bring both al-Qaeda and the US into the Lebanese
theater of conflict as a continuation of the "war on terror". - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Jul 28, '06)
Strength in unity
The US hoped for the emergence of a Sunni-Israel nexus against an
Iranian-led "Shi'ite crescent". Al-Qaeda's call for unity between Sunnis and
Shi'ites against the "Zionist-Crusader alliance" shatters any hope of that. - Jim
Lobe (Jul 28, '06)
Nasrallah's other fight
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has strong ties with Iraq, where, while
studying at a leading seminary, he met such luminaries as Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, now the leading Shi'ite cleric in that country. Importantly, he
also forged strong links with the Sadr family. Muqtada's war against the US in
Iraq, therefore, is also Hezbollah's war. - Olivier Guitta
(Jul 28, '06)
Syria's military flatters to
deceive
Syria's 220,000-strong army could put up a reasonable fight. But its air force
could not sustain more than a day or two, at most, of full-scale conflict,
while the navy would only provide useful target practice for a well-equipped
enemy. Damascus' missiles and weapons of mass destruction are much more of a
threat. - Richard M Bennett (Jul 27, '06)
Hard lines and soft promises
Predictably, talks in Rome on the Middle East crisis failed. Behind diplomacy's
words and vows of enhanced international cooperation, regional and external
powers are steadily pursuing their interests. And on these interests, no one,
from Hezbollah to the US, is yet ready to compromise. - Federico Bordonaro
(Jul 27, '06)
Israel's star-spangled arsenal
Since 1985, Israel has received about US$3 billion in military and economic aid
each year from Washington, accounting for more than 20% of Israel's total
defense budget. The result: an extremely well-equipped military, and
considerable leverage for Washington over Jerusalem.
(Jul 27, '06)
COMMENT
An accident
waiting to happen
To accept that the Israeli attack on a UN post that killed
four peacekeepers was yet another accident presupposes a level of incompetence
or insubordination in the Israeli army that should see some serious
courts-martial. Or maybe there was another reason for the attack. - Ian Williams
(Jul 26, '06)
Who does the US call?
ANKARA. Washington sorely needs a
dependable ally such as Turkey, which has regional standing (with regard to the
Arab side as well as Israel) and the military and diplomatic capability to
undertake a difficult mission in southern Lebanon. Any Turkish cooperation,
though, will come at a calculated price: US assistance in tackling Kurdish
militants based in northern Iraq.
DAMASCUS. When the crisis broke, many
in the US immediately clamored for a wider war with Syria and Iran. Two weeks
later, they are changing their tune and advocating dealing with Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad as Damascus is now seen as pivotal to resolving the
ongoing violence, one way or the other. (Jul 26,
'06)
Turks want a bargain - M K Bhadrakumar
The
road to Damascus - Jim Lobe
Hezbollah banks on home advantage
Hezbollah's Nassan Nasrallah learned from the mistakes of the Palestinian
Liberation Organization in Lebanon in 1982. Hezbollah does not advertise its
military bases and training camps: "One can feel Hezbollah, but one cannot see
Hezbollah." Similarly, unlike the PLO, Hezbollah's fighters are Lebanese, and
they are backed by the Lebanese people, who, crucially, believe implicitly in
Nasrallah. - Sami Moubayed (Jul 25, '06)
SPEAKING FREELY
Overreaching in Lebanon
The Israel-Hezbollah confrontation will not be resolved by military
means but through negotiations. Iran, which is interested in Hezbollah's
survival as a fighting force, has sent a letter to Germany. It could be an
opening for Berlin to get seriously involved in mediation efforts. - Emanuel
Shahaf (Jul 25, '06)
THE ROVING EYE
The spirit of
resistance
Hezbollah's asymmetrical war effort is absorbing everything thrown at it.
Resistance is fueled by a mix of beggar's banquet anger, creative military
solutions and Shi'ite martyr spirit. The practical result is that Hezbollah is
even more popular all over the Arab street. - Pepe Escobar
(Jul 25, '06)
The war Hezbollah is really
fighting
With diplomacy making scant progress and with neither Israel nor Hezbollah
showing any signs of backing off, the asymmetrical warfare drags on. Hezbollah
could take the (moral) initiative by unilaterally stopping all rocket attacks
on Israel, focusing on Israeli ground forces making incursions into Lebanon.
Hezbollah might still be defeated, but its phoenix would rise from the ashes of
Lebanon. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jul 24, '06)
SPENGLER
Fight a democracy, kill the
people
A real war - that is, a war that is fought to a decisive conclusion - finally
may have begun in the Middle East. It is easy to say that the war between
Israel and Hezbollah has unleashed chaos, but the question is: Upon whom?
(Jul 24, '06)
Hezbollah digs in deep
Hezbollah has established many cleverly placed and well-defended fire positions
and bunkers along the border with Israel and roads are mined. The upper Bekaa
Valley will only be taken at considerable risk to the Israeli ground forces and
only the use of overwhelming military force will provide any certainly of
success. - Richard M Bennett (Jul 24, '06)
Bunkered down for a war of
attrition
After 11 days of fighting, the war between Israel and Hezbollah is evolving
into one of attrition, with the opponents prepared to wait until public opinion
in each other's country starts saying no to bloodshed. Washington will support
this situation, convinced that the battered Lebanese people will be first to
buckle, and that they will then turn against Hezbollah. - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 21, '06)
Troops poised for ground
offensive
Only Israeli ground troops
can be expected to find hidden arms dumps and
command bunkers and seal the borders with Syria
to prevent reinforcements and replacement
weapons reaching Hezbollah. Plans are already in
place for a full-scale invasion, deploying a
minimum of three full divisions led by three of
Israel's most famous elite combat units. -
Richard M Bennett
(Jul 21, '06)
A job half done
Israel says Hezbollah's offensive capabilities have been cut
in half. While physically destroying the other half seems possible,
notwithstanding tactical difficulties, the goal of ending Hezbollah as an
organization will probably backfire, since the group is deeply rooted in
Lebanese society. (Jul 21, '06)
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The arms that keep Hezbollah
fighting
Israel has stated in no uncertain terms its intent to bomb
Hezbollah into submission, but Hezbollah bristles with weapons. It has an
estimated 10,000-12,000 Katyusha rockets, of which only 3% have been used. And
Iran, most speculate, is ready to replenish the arsenal. - Jason Motlagh
(Jul 21, '06)
The drums of war sound
for Iran
The attacks of September 11, 2001, on the US set the stage for the vilification
and eventual invasion of Iraq. In similar fashion, the Israeli onslaught
against Hezbollah and Lebanon provides the perfect backdrop for the Bush
administration to cast Iran as the regional bogeyman and ripe for
confrontation. The mainstream US media, as well as all key political factions,
are beginning to sound the same battle cry. - Jim Lobe
(Jul 20, '06)
THE ROVING EYE
Lebanon left
for dead
Events in Lebanon fall into the pattern of a master plan drawn up by US
neo-conservatives for Israel 10 years ago. The "getting rid of Saddam Hussein"
part has already been accomplished. The degradation of the Palestinians is
ongoing. The "destabilizing of Syria in Lebanon" took place last year. The next
step would be hitting at both Syria and Iran via Lebanon. - Pepe Escobar
(Jul 19, '06)
It's not just about Hezbollah
Both Washington and Tel Aviv argue that the fighting between Israel and
Lebanon's Hezbollah must have the support and blessing of Iran. Certainly
Tehran is exploiting the conflict, but credible intelligence proving this was
an Iranian trap is yet to surface. Rather, Israel's sustained military campaign
seeks to signal to its neighbors to abandon any adventurous ideas that the US
difficulties in Iraq may have given them. - Trita Parsi
(Jul 19, '06)
US backing the Sunni camp
The willingness of Sunni-led Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt to criticize
Hezbollah - as well as the Bush administration's eagerness to extol these three
countries - may reflect growing concerns regarding the emergence of an
Iranian-led "Shi'ite crescent" across the Middle East. - Jim Lobe
(Jul 19, '06)
Hezbollah's
transformation by Dahr Jamail
THE ROVING EYE
Leviathan run amok
Israel's tactic of trying to turn the Lebanese as a whole against Hezbollah
seems to be doomed. Hezbollah is betting that Lebanon will be able to absorb
the extreme limits of collective punishment it is receiving - and the
resistance movement will come out stronger than ever. - Pepe Escobar
(Jul 18, '06)
US hawks smell blood
Neo-conservatives and their right-wing supporters vociferously
depict the conflict as part of a global struggle pitting Israel against
Islamist extremism organized and directed by Iran and its junior partner,
Syria. - Jim Lobe (Jul 18, '06)
Hezbollah and the art of the
possible
As has been famously written, "politics is the art of the possible". Israel's
terms for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, therefore, which include the disarming of
Hezbollah (it's not going to happen), will have to be amended if Jerusalem is
interested in ending the hostilities. In the meantime, Hezbollah continues to
draw strength from the Israeli attacks. - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 17, '06)
SPENGLER
The Gumps of August
US policy has turned to dust and ashes, and President George W
Bush resembles the slow-witted Everyman traipsing oblivious through great
events in Forrest Gump - but without the lucky streak of that 1994
film's protagonist. The proposition that democracy could thrive in Lebanon
under current circumstances is just one US self-delusion coming to disastrous
fruition. And a US attack on Iran is the inevitable consequence.
(Jul 17, '06)
COMMENT
Israel's path
to total war
As the tide of war intensifies, it is increasingly obvious
that Israel's hidden objective is to inflict such mortal wounds on the weak
nation of Lebanon as to bring it to its knees and thus take a giant step toward
its grandiose objective of a Pax Israelica. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jul 17, '06)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Bush's
faith and the Middle East aflame
When it came into power, the administration of George W Bush knew only one
thing: that the force, military force, was with it. Since then an abiding faith
in the most powerful military in the history of the galaxy has guided all
actions. One problem is that many adversaries believe that the force is with
them too. Tom Engelhardt (Jul 17,
'06)
It's war by any other name
Neither Khaled Meshal of Hamas nor Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah is
interested in peace with Israel. Both leaders are unimpressed by Arab regimes
that call for dialogue. They are thus being aggressive with Israel so Israel
can respond with similar aggression - killing whatever dreams Arab peacemakers
have in mind. The same formula applies inside Israel, where many do not want
room for moderation in Israeli-Arab relations. - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 14, '06)
COMMENT
The danger of
an unequal struggle
Asymmetric war involving the US in Iraq and Afghanistan is heading for an
unmitigated disaster. A similar war - where one side has overwhelming military
superiority - between Israel and the Arabs (Palestinians and Lebanese) is
another disaster in the making. - Ehsan Ahrari
(Jul 14, '06)
Tremors rock Syria
People in Syria, which has a long and tangled relationship with Lebanon, fear
that a regional war could spread to their country if the clashes involving
Israel, Lebanon and Palestine do not ease soon. - Dahr Jamail
(Jul 14, '06)
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