LOS ANGELES - In a climax
to the primary season, voters here in California and in
nine other states go to the polls on Tuesday, US time,
to select from an already winnowed field of would-be
Democratic presidential candidates. At this writing, all
signs suggest that Tuesday's contests will in effect end
the Democratic race, and Senator John Kerry will be the
man trying to evict George W Bush from the White House
come November.
There will be 1,151 delegates up
for grabs (primaries will be held in California,
Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York,
Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont; Minnesota will hold
caucuses), more than half the 2,162 needed to win the
nomination. To date Kerry leads the four remaining
Democrats with 754; his nearest competitor, Senator John
Edwards, has 220 (long-shot candidates Reverend Al
Sharpton and Congressman Dennis Kucinich have 16 and
nine delegates, respectively).
In the week
leading up to Tuesday's primaries, the candidates met
one another in debates twice. The contests were marked
by an increasingly desperate Edwards, who has won only
one of the 20 previous primaries and caucuses (in his
home state of South Carolina) attempting to distinguish
himself from front-runner Kerry. The California debate
was widely seen as Edwards' last chance to make an
impression on voters. Rather than presenting any
tantalizing defining moments indicating that Edwards
still had some life left, however, the debate, held on
the campus of the University of Southern California, was
a denouement - an informal, though nationally televised,
confirmation that Kerry was in the driver's seat.
From the beginning Edwards has been playing up
his "son of a mill worker" background, implicitly
comparing himself with the aristocratic Kerry. Edwards
rehashed this routine several times during the debate,
declaring that he and Kerry "come from different places
and we present different choices". He also contrasted
their positions on trade and played up his image as a
Washington outsider who could shake up politics-as-usual
in the nation's capital.
As the Democratic field
has narrowed and the media have focused on the
previously obscure Edwards, his lack of experience has
become a key factor in considerations of his
electability. Kerry, with a new confidence, parried each
Edwards assault by pointing out the similarities between
the two, saving his sharpest barbs for Bush, pointing to
the recent controversy over homosexual marriage as proof
that the president was bringing out the least common
denominator of US politics and polarizing the nation.
As Edwards seemed to stumble on a question about
his vote supporting the resolution to go to war in Iraq,
Kerry stated, "I do not regret my vote. I regret that
the president of the United States broke every promise
he made." He seemed convinced that he had won the
nomination, taking a conservative tact and looking ahead
to the general election. Kerry even smugly ignored
criticism from Kucinich, who enjoyed his high point in
the campaign the previous week, placing second in the
Hawaii primary. Sharpton, as usual, had the best lines
of the evening, suggesting he would "make a
constitutional amendment against presidents who lie".
Although he said he looked forward to accepting the
party's nomination at the convention, Sharpton conceded
that his main goal was to amass convention delegates so
that he could wield some influence at the gathering "to
hold [Kerry and Edwards] accountable". Polls throughout
the US continue to indicate that the prime concern of
most Democratic voters is electability, rather than
issues.
The media have been Edwards' best allies
during the primary season; after being blindsided by his
second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, political
pundits declared that Edwards was best placed to
challenge Kerry, who became the de facto front-runner
after the New Hampshire primaries. As the weeks went on
and Kerry continued to rack up victories (he won 18 of
20 primaries and caucuses), attention was lavished on
Edwards and his "two Americas" message. Despite the fact
that his chances and finances continued to wane, because
he was the last man standing after the withdrawals of
former Vermont governor Howard Dean, retired General
Wesley Clark, Congressman Richard Gephardt and Senator
Joe Lieberman, he was the beneficiary of a bonanza of
political analysts with nothing left to analyze.
The internecine competition apparently has been
good for the Democrats, though; a poll by the Pew
Research Center for the People and the Press reported in
the Washington Post showed that in February 45 percent
of likely voters viewed the field positively, as
compared with 31 percent in January. Edwards' "nice guy"
campaign has been good for the Democrats, but in the
past week he has succumbed to the pressure to campaign
negatively, taking slight jabs at Kerry on trade and the
economy.
Voter turnout on Tuesday could be an
indicator of how the Democrats will fare against Bush in
the November election. In the previous races this
season, turnout has been very high. On the other hand,
voters in earlier contests had a wider variety of
candidates to choose from. Many voters in California
lamented not having the chance to cast a ballot for
Clark or Dean; thus the narrow field may decrease
enthusiasm as voters perceive Kerry as the not yet
official but imminent nominee. Democrats will have to
keep voters engaged, though. Currently Bush's popularity
is diminishing, and pundits who just months ago were
conceding the race to Bush have been forced to take a
fresh look at the Kerry campaign.
Conservative
columnist Robert Novak cited research last week
suggesting that if the election were held today, the
popular vote would be won by Kerry, but thanks to the
Electoral College system Bush would win again. Still,
projections this early are far from reliable. Bush will
be vulnerable in November, and although he has a huge
lead in fundraising, the Democrats should be able to
score points on several issues, including trade, the war
in Iraq, and the economy.
Kerry's strategists
will be watching closely how different demographics
vote. The closeness of the 2000 election coupled with
the low voter turnout indicates that get-out-the-vote
strategies could make all the difference, but Kerry will
have to figure out how to energize voters who might be
lukewarm about his lackluster legislative career. Kerry
already has the anti-Bush vote sewn up, but will need to
woo key constituencies in the heartland and in the south
to swing one or two states to the Democrats. Ohio, for
example, will be extremely important in November. In the
2000 election Ohio went for Bush, but in the two
previous elections Ohioans voted for Bill Clinton.
Georgia could be another big win for the Democrats; it
went Republican in 1996 and 2000, but went with Clinton
in 1992. Bush's recent offensive against gay marriage
should win him some votes in that socially conservative
state, though.
Unless a miracle occurs for
Edwards, Kerry should wrap up the nomination by Tuesday
evening, with Edwards conceding soon after. Although
there have been suggestions that Edwards will remain in
the race for two more weeks to compete in several
impending southern primaries, he will face pressure from
Democratic leaders to drop out if he does not win at
least two states on Tuesday, which seems highly
unlikely. Kerry's support has been increasing, while
Edwards' has been on the decline. The New York Times
reports that in last-minute whistle stops in Ohio,
Edwards has been drawing small crowds of fewer than 200
people, while Kerry has been packing auditoriums and
racking up key endorsements.
Kerry's honeymoon
will be short, though. Shortly after the returns are in
Tuesday night the senator will have to turn his focus to
fundraising to replenish his dwindling coffers. It will
be impossible to match Bush's fundraising numbers. He
will, however, enjoy the benefit of having the entire
Democratic machine united behind him.
Kerry will
also have to think seriously about his running mate.
Here several names have been bandied about, the most
recent being Edwards, who has said he will not run for
re-election to the Senate regardless of the outcome of
the primary season. Clark will certainly be considered,
as will Gephardt, but there will be no announcement
until the convention.
In short, starting
Wednesday Kerry will have to settle in to the long,
difficult, and unglamorous task of building an
organization that can defeat Bush in November.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
All over but
the hard work
