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The brown vote

EL PASO, Texas - Samuel Huntington's current vision of hell is something like being stranded on the El Paso-Ciudad Juarez border crossing, forced to pay the 40-cent pedestrian toll to the other side of the Bridge of the Americas, with no possibility of a return ticket, and condemned to an everlasting diet of tacos and fajitas.

Huntington, a professor of government at Harvard, has built a half-a-century career out of pitting the "good" (us) against "evil" (them) to the benefit of his American-ruling elite employers. In the 1960s, he was convinced that napalm and Agent Orange bombing of the Vietnamese countryside was depriving the Vietcong of its rural base of support, so the US would win the war over time. In 1975, on granting equal rights to black Americans, he said, "There are ... potentially desirable limits to the indefinite extension of political democracy." During Ronald Reagan's presidency in the 1980s, Huntington was in favor of Star Wars, Reagan's missile-defense program to reduce the threat of nuclear attack by destroying missiles from space.

Totalitarian states tend to coalesce first by stigmatizing a foreign enemy, then an enemy within, capable of corrupting the integrity of a "pure and united" nation. Huntington - who stole the concept of the "clash of civilizations" from conservative academic Bernard Lewis - first stigmatized Arab civilization in 1993 as "The Great Menace". Now, in 2004, he finally switches to the enemy within: Hispanics. Latinos, in his view, are guilty of being excessively attached to their culture, and their galloping demography prevents their assimilation to the "Anglo-Saxon Protestant node". Huntington, in his book Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity, calls for the preservation of the messianic project of the original American settlers.

It's all color-coded, of course: after the red menace (communism), the yellow peril (Asia) and the green peril (Islam), now the terror alert (elevated) has been switched to the brown peril (Latinos).

The brown peril
Mexico starts in sprawling El Paso before one even crosses the US border. The carnival atmosphere along the Rio Grande (known as the Rio Bravo in Mexico) is similar to the Brazilian-Paraguayan border - which, for Washington neo-conservatives, is teeming with al-Qaeda, with the US-Mexico border being taken over by Zapatistas and assorted evil Latin American drug lords. The best analogy would rather be with the Hong Kong-Shenzhen border, with its legions of Mexican/Cantonese working in maquiladoras in Mexico/Guandong province. Most people crossing the Bridge of the Americas live in Mexico and work in Texas, or live and work in Texas and have left their families back in Mexico.

This is the thrust of Huntington's thesis: "The persistent inflow of Hispanic immigrants threatens to divide the United States into two peoples, two cultures and two languages. Unlike past immigrant groups, Mexicans and other Latinos have not assimilated into mainstream US culture, forming instead their own political and linguistic enclaves - from Los Angeles to Miami - and rejecting the Anglo-Protestant values that built the American dream. The United States ignores this challenge at its peril."  

Huntington claims that Mexicans are essentially invading, exploiting and creating poverty in the US. World-famous Mexican novelist Carlos Fuentes, a former diplomat, responds: "Hispanics are not the 'balkanizers' of the US, as Huntington wants it. They cherish their traditional values, as Americans of Italian, Irish or Chinese extraction do. But they are not preparing a reconquista of the territories lost in 1848." Huntington claims as evidence of subversion the widespread use of Spanish. Fuentes argues: "He should know that most European populations speak many languages, and that it is isolation that forces cultures to perish. Hispanics enrich American culture, and to reduce their presence would also hurt America's economy."

Huntington is against multiculturalism, and most of all immigration. He is convinced that America is not a nation of immigrants but, at least initially, a nation of settlers who reached the New World not to found a new nation but rather to relocate from Britain. Call it a case of extending its own backyard. Later, regardless of religion or nationality, says Huntington, every immigrant engaged in an Anglo-Protestant makeover of some sort, were they Germans, Irish, Italian or Chinese.

But Mexicans specifically - not Latinos, not Hispanics - are the exception, according to Huntington. They are now invading the US: "Mexican immigration is leading toward the demographic reconquista of areas Americans took from Mexico by force in the 1830s and 1840s." Californians and New Yorkers always joke that it would be a good idea to give back Texas - although they doubt Mexicans would want it. Anyway, according to Huntington, the new immigrants are "blurring the border between Mexico and America, introducing a very different culture, while also promoting the emergence, in some areas, of a blended society and culture, half-American and half-Mexican".

After September 11, 2001, the "clash of civilizations" mumbo jumbo became a self-fulfilling prophecy. The same might apply to the brown peril warning if the American economy does not pick up. And needless to say, the "solutions" will all come from the military mould: more border repression, fewer social services for immigrants already in the US, a heavily militarized Fortress America all over the southwest.

Huntington is essentially saying that America must never abandon its original set of 16th century Anglo-Protestant values: and this "back to the roots" mode implies no immigration, protecting the English language and no secularism. No wonder the neo-cons love it.

It's easy to dismiss the latest Huntington ramblings as pure racism or puritanical intolerance. Someone instead should offer Huntington a tour of Ellis Island in New York harbor. During its peak, from 1892 to 1924, Ellis Island was the gateway for more than 12 million immigrants to America: their descendants now make up more than 40% of the US population. Ellis Island symbolizes the dominant self-image of most Americans: the land of eternal promise, the beacon of light on the world stage. The US still remains the promised land for many of the world's poor. The immigrant workforce represents 14% of the active US population. Without them, entire sectors of the US economy, such as distribution, agriculture or the restaurant business, would come to a complete halt - something that every Californian knows well.

Let's go to jail
The attraction of the promised land can be contemplated in all its might from the top of a hill overlooking the Rio Grande River in the El Paso suburbs. Increasing numbers of Mexicans attempt to cross the river, day or night, as they have no papers to cross the Bridge of the Americas. One reason is glaringly obvious: the abyss between the US median per capita income - US$32,000 - and Mexico's, $3,700. But after 20 years of repression at the border, the difference is that now almost everyone is getting arrested. In the past six months, arrests along the 2,000-mile US southern border rose 25% over the same period in 2003. This is happening for at least three reasons.

  • The Mexican economy is in dire straits, afflicted by drought and non-stop layoffs, while there is a perception that the US economy may be finally starting to pick up.
  • George W Bush's January proposal to give legal status to somewhere around 7 million undocumented migrants already working in the US has increased hopes of amnesty in the future. His program would allow illegals to work in the US for three years. The text will be examined by Congress in 2005. Last April, Democrats introduced their own plan calling for legal residence for illegal immigrants.
  • There's a huge crackdown going on along the border, with more agents and more high-tech equipment in all border states. This means more arrests, but it does not necessarily reflect a new wave of illegal immigration.

    As expected, there is tremendous controversy involving major actors in this drama, Mexican and American government officials, human rights advocates and people in favor of immigration repression.

    Officials at the US Customs and Border Protection say there are more arrests because of more agents and more high-tech equipment. Almost 10,000 of the total 11,000 Border Patrol agents are now deployed along the US southwest border. The Arizona border, for instance, is getting an extra 110 agents, dozens of motion detectors, four new helicopters and the first-ever unmanned aircraft to patrol the Arizona desert. Agents in El Paso speak of improved cooperation among federal, state and local agencies. The numbers are staggering. According to the Border Patrol, there were 535,000 arrests along the entire Southwest border in the past six months.

    What do the prospective immigrants say? They say they don't want to be citizens. They just want a temporary work permit - because there are no jobs in the Guatemalan countryside or in Tegucicalpa, Honduras' capital, not to mention all over Mexico. News of jobs spreads like wildfire: a teacher says he read in a newspaper in Honduras that Austin, Texas, needed 5,000 teachers.

    Robert Donner, the US Customs and Border Protection commissioner, does not believe that border crossing has increased because of the possibility of a guest-worker program. But it's hard to imagine how he knows that - considering that agents never ask immigrants why they are coming to the US.

    Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies, a bland name that disguises an organization that is against immigration, says that the real impact of Bush's proposed guest-worker program will be on the illegal immigrants who are already working in the US, because they all hope to qualify. A border patrol in El Paso shares this sentiment: "What they are really getting off on is the guest-worker program."

    Reverend Robin Hoover, head of the immigrant-relief group Humane Borders, is more straight to the point: the problem is the slump in Mexico's economy. "I don't agree that immigrants are rushing over here to get amnesty. Whenever I ask them about it, they don't even know what I'm talking about."

    But it is Michael Wyatt, a legal aid attorney who has spent years defending immigrant farm workers, who sums it all up: "If anyone in Washington wants to address immigration ... they should focus on assisting Mexico in rebuilding its economy. It doesn't matter if we have a 10-foot-high electrified fence topped with coiled barbed wire surrounding our entire country, people are still going to come here if that's what it takes to feed their family."

    There's only one consensus: immigration will continue to rise. And sooner or later these immigrants will be wanting to vote.

    Hasta la vista, elector
    As many as 1 million Latinos are going to vote for the first time in 2004 - and the absolute majority will do so in crucial swing states like Arizona, New Mexico and Florida. According to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, a non-partisan group representing about 6,000 Hispanic officials, a record 7 million Hispanics are expected to vote in November. This means 6.1% of the total American electorate - more than enough to decide the final outcome.

    There's a perception that Latinos overwhelmingly vote Democrat - apart from the Bay-of-Pigs-generation Cuban-Americans in Florida. In 1996, Latinos voted for Bill Clinton (72%) against Bob Dole. And in 2000, they voted Al Gore 62% against Bush 35%.

    Florida's non-Cuban Latinos are another matter. In 2000, they voted Gore 75% against Bush 25%. But in the 2002 Florida election for governor, 55% of their vote went to Jeb Bush over his Democrat rival. And these numbers exclude Florida's Cuban-Americans, who vote Republican in their majority. Arnold Schwarzenegger got similar numbers in California.

    This is the reason why Republican Machiavelli Karl Rove has devised a no-holds-barred assault strategy to capture the swing Latino vote in Florida, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. Bush got 35% of the Hispanic vote in the 2000 election. Rove wants much more in 2004. Jeb Bush himself kicked off the Bush-Cheney 2004 Spanish-speaking campaign in Florida last April, when Bush began airing Spanish television and radio spots in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. But this was before the Abu Ghraib prison scandal.

    The Democrat's counter-strategy is the Democratas Unidos project, which is also financing ads on Spanish-language television in key swing states. There are only two Spanish-language stations of note in the US: Univision and Telemundo. And the ads, conceived in Spanish, really have a lot of, well, swing.

    What's more, they work. According to some results, Latinos in Las Vegas were 58% for Kerry and 32% for Bush last December. In April, Kerry was up to 64% and Bush down to 24%. In New Mexico, Kerry was 52% against Bush's 37% last December. In April, Kerry was up to 60% and Bush down to 30%.

    Antonio Villaraigosa, national co-chairman of the Kerry campaign, has been promising that "we're going to speak to the hearts and minds of Latino voters". Kerry is learning Spanish via language tapes. But as El Pasoans are now fond of saying, he still has to hang out in New Mexico and Texas and eat some tacos with the locals.

    Most Hispanic immigrants to the US don't physically cross the border: they arrive legally by plane, in Los Angeles, Miami or New York, where they are duly photographed and fingerprinted. California itself is living proof that Huntington's alarm is bogus. In 1990, California was 57% Caucasian and 25% Latino. In 2040 it will be 48% Latino and 31% Caucasian. A third of American Latinos live in California. Last year, most babies born in California were Latino. There are now as many Mexican-Americans in Los Angeles as whites. Ethnicity in California is already a non-issue. It's a case of total assimilation. California is awash with impeccably bourgeois, middle and upper-middle class Latino families. No one has made an attempt to go for political separatism, or to set up Spanish-language schools, as Chinese immigrants always do. By the third generation, two-thirds of Mexican immigrants speak only English.

    Rove and his Machiavellians are sure that they can win in November if they keep Bush's support with Latinos at 35% at least. Democrats want at least 75%. An alarmed Samuel Huntington might want them all deported south of the Rio Grande River. But the fact is, in the real world, the brown vote is a vital key for victory in November.

    Also in this series:

    The Spirit of Detroit (Jun 16, '04)
    Bush against Bush (Apr 30, '04)
    Kerry, the Yankee muchacho (May 7, '04)
    You have the right to be misinformed (May 8, '04)
    An American tragedy (May 11, '04)
    In the heart of Bushland (May 12, '04)
    The war of the snuff videos (May 13  '04)
    The Iraq gold rush (May 14, '04)
    The new beat generation (May 15, '04)
    Taliban in Texas: Big Oil hankers for old pals
     (May 18, '04)
    Life is a beach. Or is it?
    (May 19, '04)
    Cuba libre
     (May 21, '04)
    Miami vice and virtue (May 22, '04)
    Georgia on his mind 
    (May 27, '04)
    Free at last? (May 28, '04)
    Highway 61 revisited  (May 29, '04) 
    Now gimme those heartland votes
      (Jun 3, '04)
    Nerves of steel  (Jun 4, '04)
    A Warhol moment (Jun 5, '04)
    Saint Ronnie (Jun 8, '04)
    Iraq as the 51st state (Jun 18, '04)

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