|
|
|
|
The 2020 vision of US
intelligence
By Ehsan Ahrari
When the uncertainties of the contemporary
era look so puzzling and ominous, one wonders why
one should worry about the far-off world of 2020.
But that is the reality of the world of
intelligence. No matter how wrong they were about
issues of the recent past, intelligence operatives
seldom hesitate to make further predictions. Why?
Because it is part of their mandate. They are
expected to prepare futuristic analyses for their
country's top decision-makers, forewarn them about
threats that are lingering over the horizon. In
the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist
attacks on the United States, such analyses and
predictions contained therein are given special
publicity.
Such is the nature of the
forecast issued on Thursday by the National
Intelligence Council, a report that is considered
a consensus of US intelligence agencies. It gives
Iraq prime mention, and states that the war in
that country could provide an important training
ground for terrorists. But that was precisely the
reason the US decided to topple Saddam Hussein.
Under his regime, we were told, Iraq was an
important terrorist state. Now the Intelligence
Council is telling us that the post-Saddam Iraq
would become a breeding ground for terrorists.
One wonders why there is so much pessimism
about Iraq. Is it because of the ever-growing
insurgency? Is the US government going public
about expressing its own doubts about Iraq? Are we
beginning to hear things from intelligence sources
that America's top decision-makers are really
thinking?
When the United States went into
Iraq, it was the war of George W Bush. However,
somewhere between then and now, one has to look at
that event as an accidental beginning of the
possibility of democratizing and pluralizing the
Middle East. The stakes are too high in Iraq, for
two reasons. First, the very fact that a Shi'ite
democracy is about to emerge is a development of
revolutionary proportions by itself. Even though
some semblance of democracy is present in two
Shi'ite-dominated states, Iran and Lebanon, Iraq
is about to become a sui generis example of
the creation of democracy. Second, the emergence
of democracy would be a development that could not
be ignored by the neighboring countries where
authoritarian rule prevails. In a more nostalgic
sense, the often-heard phrase is "freedom is
catching". In more realistic terms it is fair to
say that a democratic Iraq would create a momentum
of its own in its non-democratic neighborhood. But
the current analysis of the National Intelligence
Council is not willing to be hopeful about such a
potential. The reason might be that the future of
democracy in Iraq currently does not appear that
bright.
The intelligence organizations'
natural proclivity to be conservative forces them
to project the developments of the past into the
future. When the Afghan mujahideen succeeded in
ousting the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, the
mujahideen themselves did not fade away. With the
passage of time, they re-emerged in the 1990s as
part of the Islamist movement that was challenging
the United States in the Middle East and Russia
and China in Chechnya and Xinjiang respectively.
Keeping that fact in mind, the National
Intelligence Council's report states that
"experienced survivors of the war in Iraq" may
supersede current leaders of al-Qaeda to become
major players in international terrorism ..." In a
more general sense, the report says, "We expect
that by 2020 al-Qaeda will have been superseded by
similarly inspired but more diffuse Islamic
extremist groups, all of which will oppose the
spread of many aspects of globalization into
traditional Islamic societies."
From the
point of view of realism, that observation is very
close to reality right now. America's unrelenting
"war on terrorism" has left very little room for
al-Qaeda to flourish as a full-fledged terrorist
organization, as it was between 1997 and September
2001. However, it has proved itself to be highly
adaptive by encouraging the emergence of
"freelance" terrorist groups in different Muslim
regions with a specific agenda to attack the US
and its assets. At the same time, the US military
campaign in Afghanistan and its invasion of Iraq
have kept the pot of anti-Americanism boiling in
the Muslim world.
The report notes that in
the world of 2020 the United States remains the
world's "foremost power". It also states that
"political Islam" also remains a potent force. In
this way, it describes the overall nature of the
present and continuing conflict. Political Islam
through the sermons and edicts of the global
jihadists, such as Osama bin Laden and his
cohorts, aim to establish an order that is
antitheticals to everything the United States
represents. Yet the insurgency in Iraq is proving
that America's version of change will not be
acceptable to the Islamists and pan-Arabists,
forces that are currently fighting the US.
At the same time, by declaring its
intention to spread Western-style democracy in the
Middle East at large, the Bush administration has
alienated the region's current authoritarian
rulers, who are in no mood to give up power and
accept a respectable life of retirement as
presidents and prime ministers usually do in
democratic systems. What these authoritarian
rulers are likely to do is garner moderate
Islamists and find a way to remain in power by
successfully fighting the jihadists within their
own borders. The result will not be the emergence
of democracy of any sort but the prolongation of
authoritarianism. At the same time, the jihadists
will continue their own insurgencies, thereby
making different countries of the Middle East
places where economic development will be stunted.
The overall prognosis is not at all
optimistic. Still, this report contains at least
one bright spot worth mentioning. It is
recommending that the Bush administration develop
a more nuanced strategy to counter terrorism: "A
counter-terrorism strategy that approaches the
problem on multiple fronts offers the greatest
chance of containing - and ultimately reducing -
the terrorist threat."
There cannot be the
slightest doubt about the sagacity of that
observation. Thus far, the "global war on
terrorism" has been focused on the use of military
force. The lone superpower is finding out the hard
way that it is easy to win victory on the
battlefield, but it is very difficult to convert
the vanquished country into a stable society. To
be successful in the political realm it is crucial
that the United States develop a comprehensive
strategy that also focuses on promotion of
education and political and economic development
in the Muslim world.
Ehsan
Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia,
US-based independent strategic analyst.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact us for
information on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
01001100160Ś178 Copyright 1999 - 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No. 8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong
Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
Asian Sex Gazette Sex and Religion News
|
|
|
