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Losing stomach for
adventures
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - President George W Bush faces
a difficult challenge in rallying US public
opinion behind his clarion call for spreading
freedom and democracy abroad, according to a
number of surveys published over the past two
years. Those polls show that the general public
is, if anything, less inclined than it was two
years ago to engage in a global crusade on behalf
of democracy, particularly if it is undertaken
unilaterally and militarily, as in Iraq.
Indeed, one poll taken last month found
that only 7% of US citizens believe that the
primary focus of US foreign and security policy
should be on "building democracies in other
regions". Most placed a much greater emphasis on
such priorities as "defending US borders and
homeland security", and strengthening alliances
with other nations against a common threat.
"The Iraq experience clearly has been a
sobering one for Americans," said Pam Solo,
president of the Massachusetts-based Civil Society
Institute (CSI), which commissioned the poll of
some 2,100 voters. "Voters are embracing a new
realism in foreign-policy and security matters
that puts more emphasis on safer US borders,
intelligence gathering, diplomatic initiatives,
multinational interventions when necessary, and
greater energy efficiency in order to decrease
America's dependence on Middle Eastern oil."
In his inaugural speech last Thursday,
Bush stressed in no uncertain terms that the major
policy priority of his second term in office would
be to "seek and support the growth of democratic
movements and institutions in every nation and
culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny
in our world". He also made clear that he saw the
export and promotion of democracy and freedom
abroad as integral to the country's defense and
security.
Recalling what he termed "a day
of fire" - the September 11, 2001 attacks on New
York and the Pentagon by radical Islamists - he
insisted that it led "to one conclusion: the
survival of liberty in our land increasingly
depends on the success of liberty in other lands.
The best hope for peace in our world is the
expansion of freedom in all the world," he
declared, adding later: "America's influence is
not unlimited, but fortunately for the oppressed,
America's influence is considerable, and we will
use it confidently in freedom's cause."
He
also stressed that ending tyranny will not be
"primarily the task of arms, though we will defend
ourselves and our friends by force of arms when
necessary".
Indeed, polls taken over the
past three years suggest that public support for
exporting democracy overseas, particularly through
military means, has actually diminished, probably
as a result of setbacks in Iraq. Last July, for
example, a poll carried out by the Pew Research
Center for the People and the Press asked
respondents to choose their top priorities among
19 foreign-policy issues. "Promot[ing] democracy
abroad" was rated No 18, just ahead of "improving
living standards in poor nations", and far behind
the leaders, such as guarding against terrorist
attacks, protecting US jobs and reducing the
spread of AIDS.
The democracy option
actually rated somewhat higher when Pew asked the
same question just before the September 11
attacks. But while 29% of respondents rated it as
a "top priority" then, only 24% rated it the same
way in 2004. By contrast, the percentage of people
who rated stopping AIDS as a "top priority" fell
only 1 percentage point, from 73% to 72%, over the
same period.
Respondents in a more
comprehensive foreign-policy survey taken at the
same time - the latest in a series by the Chicago
Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) that dates
back to the 1970s - reached a similar finding.
"Helping to bring a democratic form of government
to other nations" rated dead last out of 14
"foreign-policy goals" offered to respondents -
far below even middle-ranking goals, such as
"improving the global environment" or
"strengthening the United Nations".
In
fact, the importance of democracy promotion,
according to the CCFR survey's analysts, had
fallen to its lowest relative level in almost
three decades when the poll was taken in May and
June last year.
Interestingly, "leaders" -
a sample of Republican and Democratic lawmakers
and staff people, journalists, business and
university leaders, and other prominent opinion
shapers - identified democracy promotion abroad as
"very important", rather than the "somewhat
important" rating given by the public at large.
The "leaders" were generally in accord with the
public on the question of whether or not a country
has the right to intervene militarily without UN
approval to restore a democracy, with 58% saying
"no", compared to 32% who said "yes".
Among the general public, most people did
not favor even rather mild democratization efforts
in the Middle East. Fifty-seven percent of
respondents said the US should not put "greater
pressure" on countries in the Middle East to
become more democratic, and more than two-thirds
of respondents opposed spending billions of
dollars "to reconstruct and democratize" the
Middle East, as Washington did in Europe after
World War II.
On the question of a
Marshall Plan for the Middle East, however,
leaders were the opposite camp, supporting such a
plan by 64-30.
In yet another poll, by the
University of Maryland's Program on International
Policy Attitudes (PIPA), taken in November 2003 -
eight months after the invasion of Iraq -
respondents were asked whether they agreed that
"the US has the right and even the responsibility
to overthrow dictatorships and help their people
build a democracy".
The results were
remarkably consistent with the later CCFR
findings: 34% said Washington should indeed do so,
while a solid 59% majority said it had no such
right or responsibility.
Within Bush's
core constituency, however, PIPA has identified a
shift over the past decade. Republicans tended to
be less interventionist with respect to democracy
promotion until September 11, 2001, when they
became more interventionist than Democrats.
(Inter Press
Service) |
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