WASHINGTON - Five years after September 11, 2001, Americans are considerably
less enthusiastic about projecting military power abroad, according to a major
new survey, the first of a spate of polls that are likely to be released in the
run-up to Monday's fifth anniversary of the attacks on New York and the
Pentagon.
The survey, conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
in Washington, found that Republicans remained substantially more supportive of
military deployments overseas than either Democrats or independents, who also
believe
- by 3-1 - that the United States has lost respect in the world over the past
few years.
The survey of more than 1,500 randomly selected adults also found that nearly
half (46%) of the respondents consider US support for Israel a "major reason"
for the rise in anti-US sentiment around the world, a significant increase
since Pew last posed the question 10 months ago.
Significantly, that view was held by similar percentages of self-described
Republicans and Democrats who, on most other foreign-policy questions, showed
wide partisan differences.
The survey, however, was conducted from August 9-13, just before the ceasefire
that ended the month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah, when international
pressure on Washington to persuade the Jewish state to stop its bombing
campaign in Lebanon was at its height.
Publication of the Pew survey coincided with the release of a second poll on
Wednesday by CNN that found widespread skepticism over claims by the
administration of President George W Bush that the US is making progress in the
war in Iraq and that the war is related to the larger "global war on terrorism"
launched after September 11.
Only one in four respondents in that poll, which was conducted from August 30
to September 2, thought that Washington and its allies were winning the war,
compared with 13% who said the insurgents were winning and 62% who said the war
was in essence stalemated.
Despite repeated and increasingly frequent assertions by Bush that the war in
Iraq has become the "central front" in the "war on terrorism", a majority of
53% said it was "an entirely separate military action". A larger majority of
58% said they opposed the war, compared with 39% who said they favored it - a
margin that has not changed substantially over recent months.
The most interesting finding of the latest Pew poll appeared to be the growing
public disillusionment with US military intervention.
By 45% versus 32%, respondents said they believed that the most effective way
to reduce the threat of terrorist attacks on the US was to "decrease" rather
than "increase" Washington's military presence abroad.
As noted in an accompanying analysis by the Pew Center, that finding marks a
"stark reversal" from the public's position on the first anniversary of the
September 11 attacks. At that time, a plurality of 48% of the public said
expanding US military deployments overseas was the best way to protect against
future attacks, while 29% called for reducing such commitments.
Similarly, according to the new survey, 43% of respondents said they believed
that "military strikes" against nations that were trying to develop nuclear
weapons was a very important way to reduce future terrorism - a reduction of 15
percentage points compared with a Pew survey taken in October 2002 when Bush
was trying to win congressional approval for a resolution authorizing him to
take military action against Iraq.
The new survey also suggested a more general desire to reduce US involvement in
the Middle East compared with four years ago. Asked to identify what would be a
"very important" step in reducing terrorism, attacking nuclear facilities was
rated the highest (58%) in a group of five options. It was followed by
increasing defense spending and decreasing dependence on Mideast oil (53%) and
"not get[ting] involved in other countries' problems" (32%).
In the most recent poll, however, attacking nuclear facilities ranked third,
far behind decreasing dependence on Mideast oil (67%) and increasing defense
spending (52%), and just two points ahead of the non-involvement option, which
rose (41%).
The increase in what some would describe as "isolationist" sentiment echoed a
similar finding in another poll conducted by Pew and the Council on Foreign
Relations last November. Forty-two percent of respondents said they believed
Washington should "mind its own business internationally and let other
countries get along the best they can on their own", compared with only 30% who
took that position in December 2002.
Democrats and independents account for much of these changes. In the summer of
2002, for example, Democrats by an eight-point margin favored an increased
military presence overseas. They now favor a diminished presence by nearly 3-1.
Support for a decreased military presence among independents has also dropped
sharply, by some 17 percentage points, to a 49% plurality.
On the question of why the US has lost support around the world, more than
two-thirds of respondents identified a "major reason" as the Iraq war; 58%
cited "America's wealth and power"; 49% "the US-led war on terror"; and 46% "US
support for Israel".
Democrats were significantly more likely than Republicans to cite the Iraq war
and the "war on terrorism", while Republicans were more likely to cite
"America's wealth and power".
The survey also found a gradual increase in the view that the September 11
attacks signified the beginning of a major conflict between the West and the
Islamic world. In October 2001, for example, only 28% of respondents agreed
with that view; in August 2002, 35% expressed agreement; and, in the most
recent poll, 40% took that position.
Conversely, the percentage of those who agreed with the proposition that
September 11 represented only a conflict with a "small, radical group" has
fallen from 63% to 49% over the same five-year period.
Still, 47% of respondents said the September 11 attacks were equal in
seriousness to the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, that launched
the US into World War II, while 35% said they were "more serious". Younger
respondents, however, were significantly more likely to say they were "more
serious" than older respondents.
