The United States is moving closer to
setting up an Africa Command to secure the rear
flank of its global "war on terrorism", with eyes
trained on vital oil reserves and lawless areas
where terrorists have sought safe haven to regroup
and strike against its interests.
At a
Monday briefing on plans to restructure US defense
policy, Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelmen
disclosed that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
and top military brass were close to a
decision over a proposal to
anchor US forces on the African continent,
creating a new command to encompass all security
operations.
Analysts said the move would
herald a fundamental shift in US policy that
champions an active approach toward fledgling
states prone to breed extremism, though more
tangible needs are also at stake.
A
Pentagon spokesman tempered the announcement with
the caveat that such a move required an official
process that would take time and had yet to begin.
But one official noted that talks were "intense"
and another stressed that internal debate was
stronger than it was six months ago and appeared
to be on the verge of a positive verdict.
The United States at present oversees five
separate military commands worldwide, and Africa
remains divided among three of them: European
Command covers operations spanning 43 countries
across North and sub-Saharan Africa; Central
Command oversees the restive Horn of Africa; and
Pacific Command looks after Madagascar. All three
maintain a low-key presence, largely employing
elite special operations forces to train, equip
and work alongside national militaries. A
perceived vulnerability to al-Qaeda and other
transnational terrorist organizations, however,
has fueled calls for a more aggressive security
posture in Africa.
"We do have a strategic
interest in Africa, and we have been attacked," a
leading US government Africa specialist told Asia
Times Online on condition of anonymity. "Whether
you have 1,000 people or 10,000, what we're doing
requires our active presence both from training
special forces, coordination and tracking down
some of the extremist elements ... That requires
really having a physical presence and the ability
to deploy."
CentCom commander General John
Abizaid last March spelled out to the Senate Armed
Services Committee the burgeoning security threats
facing Horn of Africa and the dire need for robust
action. Emblematic of most of the continent at
large, they include extreme poverty, corruption,
internal conflicts, uncontrolled borders and
territorial waters, weak internal security, broken
infrastructure and natural disasters, among
others. "The combination of these serious
challenges," he said, "creates an environment that
is ripe for exploitation by extremists and
criminal organizations."
Just months
later, the decision was made to raise the military
profile in Africa in what may prove a precursor to
an all-encompassing command. Washington has
committed to spend US$500 million on the
Trans-Saharan Counter-Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI
), an expanded program headed by EuCom that
provides military and development aid to nine
Saharan countries deemed to be fertile ground for
groups - such as the deadly Algeria-based Salafist
Group for Call and Combat (GSPC) - looking to
establish Afghanistan-style training grounds and
carry out other illicit activities. The TSCTI
represents a colossal upgrade from the Pan-Sahel
Initiative, its $7 million forerunner.
But
critics counter that military-centric policies
could backfire and breed radicalism where it
hardly exists by sustaining despotic regimes that
usurp funding and military hardware to tighten
their grip on power. A report by the International
Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank, said
the Saharan region is "not a terrorist hotbed" and
warned that certain Saharan governments try to
elicit US aid while using the "war on terror" to
justify human-rights abuses.
CentCom, for
its part, operates the Djibouti-based Combined
Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa, a discreet hub
formed in the aftermath of the August 1998
bombings of the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es
Salaam that killed at least 301 people and put
Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network on the map.
A number of al-Qaeda operatives are said
to be hiding in the Horn, Somalia specifically,
and they continue to pose a grave threat to US
interests in the region, which demands the
presence of some 1,800 troops tasked with
detecting and disrupting terrorist schemes. US
intelligence has also used the base to coordinate
activities around the Horn; the Central
Intelligence Agency allegedly bankrolled an
alliance of warlords that were driven out of the
capital, Mogadishu, by Islamist militia this
summer.
Somalia, a special case, has been
without a functioning government for the past 14
years and is known beyond a doubt to have harbored
members of al-Qaeda. Still, the unnamed government
analyst, who just returned from an extensive
fact-finding mission to the failed state, insists
that the vast majority of Somalis are not hostile
toward the United States despite the infamous
Black Hawk Down disaster of 1993 and the recent
Islamist takeover. "Somalis are not anti-American
by nature, they are pro-West," he said.
"Engagement is vital as it helps gather better
intelligence, understand people, and it's
cheaper."
Other observers say that thirst
for another kind of security is the driving force
behind a probable Africa Command: energy.
Nigeria already stands as the
fifth-largest supplier of oil to the United
States, and energy officials say the Gulf of
Guinea will provide a quarter of US crude by 2010,
placing the region ahead of Saudi Arabia (other
major producers include Equatorial Guinea, Angola,
Gabon and the Congo Republic). A surging demand
for fossil fuels in Asia and an unpredictable
political climate in the Middle East prompted the
administration of US President George W Bush four
years ago to call West African oil a "strategic
national interest" - a designation that reserves
the use of force to secure and defend such
interests if necessary.
The question then
arises as to where exactly the new command would
be best headquartered. The answer may be Sao Tome
and Principe, one of Africa's smallest countries,
consisting mainly of two islands at the western
bend of the continent. Concerns over fanning
anti-Americanism, proximity to oil reserves - some
of which are said to be untapped beneath its own
waters - and overall security make this the
obvious choice, John Pike, director of military
studies group GlobalSecurity.org, told Asia Times
Online. "This island seems destined to be
America's unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Gulf
of Guinea, much like Diego Garcia in the Indian
Ocean and Guam in the Pacific."
Military
planners like the idea of an offshore presence
since its reduces the impression of a neo-colonial
maneuver, Pike said, adding that so far there has
been a clear preference within EuCom and CentCom
to lie low and work through African institutions
to train troops and strengthen security. According
to Pike, the coup-wary Sao Tome government likes
the idea of a US presence, and the two sides have
been "playing footsie for a number of years now".
The Defense Department declined comment.
While odds are against the price of oil
ever going back down significantly, today it
remains a freely traded commodity on the
international market with no strings attached as
to who owns concessions. But some experts are
convinced this arrangement will come to an end in
the not so distant future, making military power
and leverage paramount.
"We can see how
the US would want to move and make preparations
for that day when it matters whom states will turn
to for protection," Pike said. "When that day
comes, the US wants to ensure key states are
looking its way."
Jason Motlagh
is deputy foreign editor at United Press
International in Washington, DC. He has reported
freelance from Saharan Africa, Asia and the
Caribbean for various US and European news media.
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