President George W Bush signed an
executive order creating a new National Space
Policy on Wednesday. The most crucial feature of
this policy is that it "rejects future
arms-control agreements that might limit US
flexibility in space and asserts a right to deny
access to space to anyone 'hostile to US
interests'." It adds: "The United States will
preserve its rights, capabilities and freedom of
action in space ... and deny, if necessary,
adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile
to US national
interests."
As
much as the United States is hesitant to admit it,
the arms
race is very
much on in space. However, the United States is
not the only country pursuing its own military
dominance of space. The Bush administration soon
will be known for issuing a slew of "strategies."
The upside of that pattern is that it enables
those in charge of any strategy to think
comprehensively and systematically, and to remain
focused on all its aspects.
However, the
downside of having a strategy is that it unduly
raises hopes for the solution of a problem that
any strategy is aimed at resolving. What dashes
the hopes of those affected is the realization
that having a strategy holds no promise that the
issue of its focus will be resolved in the short
term. That is what is happening to US strategies
to fight global terrorism, and for homeland
security, infrastructure protection and cyber
terrorism.
The National Space Policy also
suffers from the fact that it is issued in the
post-September 11, 2001, era when militarism is
such a dominant characteristic of almost all
American approaches to national security. So, the
policy sends unmistakable signals to Russia, China
and India - the first a veteran space power; the
latter fledgling actors in that realm - that the
United States intends to monopolize its
long-standing space presence by militarizing it.
The Bush administration continues to deny
that it has any intention of militarizing space.
However, there is ample evidence to conclude
otherwise.
What concerns international
observers and America's potential competitors in
space is that the US refuses to negotiate a space
arms-control accord. Its rationale is that no such
agreements are needed, because there is no space
arms race. However, the US Air Force has published
a Counterspace Operations Doctrine, which "calls
for a more active military posture in space", and
says that protecting US satellites and spacecraft
may require "deception, disruption, denial,
degradation and destruction".
America's
space competitors also vividly recall that the
current Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
chaired a commission which recommended to Congress
that it develop space weapons to protect military
and civilian satellites.
The Bush
administration also made its space-related
objectives quite clear at the outset. They
comprise strengthening "the nation's space
leadership", ensuring "that space capabilities are
available in time to further US national security,
homeland security and foreign policy objectives"
and ensuring "unhindered US operations in and
through space to defend our interests there".
For China, the chief problem related to
space competition stems from America's
overwhelming dominance in satellite technology.
Consequently, the US military can study, on a
detailed basis, the movement of forces, movement
of vehicles and missile platforms, and other
highly sensitive military activities of its
potential competitors and adversaries pretty much
at will and develop appropriate countermeasures.
Considering the fact that satellite
technology expertise cannot be developed quickly,
and in view of the fact that it is a highly
controlled Western technology, a country like
China does not expect to close the gap with the US
in the foreseeable future. However, despite the
wide technology gap in the realm of satellite
development, China is not without countermeasures
of its own.
Early this month, the Pentagon
confirmed that Beijing had "tested its
anti-satellite laser and jammed a US satellite".
Even though China was not able to damage the
capabilities of the American satellite to collect
intelligence, it underscored the issue of
vulnerability of satellites in future warfare. In
a conflict, say, with Iran, Chinese anti-satellite
technology could be quite effective in blinding
American spy satellites.
In all
likelihood, Congress may revisit its previous
opposition to its own anti-satellite laser
program, Starfire, whose funding was blocked by
the House of Representatives. What also bothers
America's competitors is that, during the Bill
Clinton administration, the US was willing to
abide by treaty obligations regarding freedom of
action in space. The Bush administration is
willing to do the same. However, it has declared
that it "will oppose the development of new legal
regimes or other restrictions that seek to
prohibit or limit US access to or use of space".
America's overwhelming space-based
military superiority is also driving its
opposition to any negotiations banning space
weapons. A number of its "key weapons systems are
now dependent on information and communications
from orbiting satellites ... The US military has
developed and deployed far more space-based
technology than any other nation, giving it great
strategic advantages. But with the superior
technology has come a perceived vulnerability to
attacks on essential satellites."
There is
little doubt that the space arms race is on. Right
now, the US is soft-peddling its profound
predilection to make sure that it stays way ahead
of the game. However, like in all realms of
scientific activities, there is no doubt that its
predominance will be seriously challenged. China
may be the country that leads in closing that gap
within the next decade or so. When it does, there
is little doubt that China will be as much
preoccupied with having its own share of
militaristic presence as the United States.
Ehsan Ahrari is the CEO of
Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria, Virginia-based
defense consultancy. He can be reached at
eahrari@cox.net or stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His
columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. His
website: www.ehsanahrari.com.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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