stake
its imperial claim in the region before economic
and demographic factors push it into inevitable
decline. With President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who
has sublimated decline of Iran's position in the
real world into an apocalyptic fantasy, there can
be no debating. One has to drive a stake through
his heart.
There is a great deal for the
United States to negotiate with China and Russia,
however; and the terms of negotiation appear so
simple and lucid as to make a
successful outcome likely enough.
What
does China want? The world's most populous country
and soon-to-be-largest economy wants many things,
but all of them hinge upon achieving what
President Hu Jintao calls the "harmonious
society", addressing, that is, the skewed
distribution of rewards to different sectors of
Chinese society. China must settle perhaps 15
million rural migrants in cities each year, while
building infrastructure and employment in the
interior and correcting urgent environmental
problems. To do this, China requires stability and
predictability in its foreign economic relations.
What does Russia want? Stability on its
borders, often at the expense of the aspirations
of peoples who have the misfortune to occupy the
Russian near abroad, and a free hand in arranging
the economic affairs of the Russian state. Moscow
wants no disruptive "color revolutions" to its
immediate west and south, and no challenge to its
authority from the so-called oligarchs who
inherited the commanding heights of the economy
from the defunct Soviet state.
Fostering
democracy in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Ukraine,
Georgia and other venues was the silliest
undertaking of US foreign policy of all time.
Americans enthusiastically kill people who
threaten them, and they do not mind too much the
loss of American soldiers in the cause of US
security, but they rise up in anger at the
sacrifice of American lives.
I expect
Washington to take the opportunity of the next
moonless night to bury the "Orange Revolution" in
Ukraine, the "Tulip Revolution" in Kyrgyzstan, the
"Rose Revolution" in Georgia, and other exercises
in shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. By
promoting democracy through the so-called color
revolutions, the US State Department merely
succeeded in diversifying the composition of the
oligarchs who exploit the fragments of the former
Soviet Union.
Cruel as it may sound, the
United States has no interest in Ukraine, because
the Ukrainians have no interest in Ukraine.
Through immigration or infecundity, Ukraine has
the hideous distinction of the world's fastest
rate of population decline (tied with Moldova).
The number of Ukrainians will fall by half as of
mid-century. There simply won't be any Ukrainians
to oppress a hundred years from now, and there is
no point wasting powder on the place.
America's tender concern for democracy in
the European nation least likely to succeed has
been a major source of annoyance to Russian
President Vladimir Putin, along with the
proliferation of US bases in other former Soviet
republics. What the US hopes to gain from such
exercises is obscure. What it stands to lose in
the Persian Gulf, however, by antagonizing the
Russians is quite tangible.
In a rational
world, Bush would call Putin and say more or less:
"Listen, Volodya, I have to admit that some of the
inmates at the State Department overstayed their
passes out of the asylum in the matter of Ukraine.
I have reviewed the matter and decided that the
United States has no interests whatever in Ukraine
- nor for that matter in Georgia, Uzbekistan or
Kyrgyzstan. But you also must understand that we
have some quite serious concerns about Iran, and
we expect your help."
It goes without
saying that Washington will put the problems of
Chechnya at extreme length as part of the bargain.
Reaching an understanding with China is a
simpler matter, for China's concerns are
univalent. China's concern for internal stability
("harmony") outweighs any conceivable
foreign-policy issue. The US president has it
within his power to make the job of the Chinese
government much, much easier. Bush should say more
or less the following to Hu Jintao: "We understand
and support your 'harmonious society' program.
China's stability and prosperity are essential to
the world's stability and prosperity. We
understand that in the present economic
transition, it would be of great help to China to
eliminate the uncertainty associated with the
value of the dollar against the yuan. Without
publicizing the matter, we propose to keep the
yuan-dollar exchange rate stable during the next
two years."
Of course, Bush would explain
to Hu that the United States expects China to
understand that it must protect vital interests in
the Persian Gulf.
Once the America's
mission changed from the delusional goal of
promoting democracy in Iraq or Lebanon, to the
achievable one of eliminating threats to the US
and its allies (in this case Saudi Arabia and
Israel), foreign policy would be fun again. I use
the word "fun" advisedly. What does Turkey think
of all this? Is Turkey's Islamist drift a concern?
In that case, will Washington support an
independent Kurdistan, the bane of Turkish policy?
Will the US shift resources to Sunnis to combat
Iranian-allied militias in Iraq? Will Saudi Arabia
crush the price of oil temporarily to discomfit
Iran? Will Russia help twist arms in Tehran to
avoid the use of the oil-price weapon against
Ahmadinejad?
There is no point gaming such
scenarios in advance. The point is that the US
holds all the options (in the literal as well as
the metaphorical sense) and thus benefits from
uncertainty.
A year is a lifetime in US
politics. After the first Iraq war, George Bush
pere ran a 90% approval rating and appeared
unbeatable, yet beaten he was two years later by
the obscure governor of Arkansas, an unimaginable
result in 1990. Bush fils suffered an even
more extreme turnabout of fortune. Under the
circumstances, I do not think it would be very
difficult for Bush to recover. He must make clear
to the chastening public that he has learned his
lesson. He well might become so popular as to make
his brother the logical successor. It will not
hurt Jeb Bush, either, that he is married to a
Mexican and speaks fluent Spanish.
