CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER Clinton chalks up key meaningless victory
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - Six weeks ago, it appeared the Pennsylvania primary would be
decisive for the Democratic US presidential nomination. But as with so many
long-awaited events, it's proven anticlimactic.
Pennsylvania was the biggest state and thus the biggest delegate prize
outstanding in the Democratic race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack
Obama. Its four million registered Democrats were expected to decide whether it
was time to declare a winner or keep the contest running. A Clinton loss would
have knocked her out of the race, but that was never in the cards.
Even Obama picked Clinton to win Pennsylvania where demographics - 82% white,
with a lot of blue collar workers, Catholics, 15% over 65 years old, higher
than any state except
Florida - favored Clinton. She began with a 20-point lead in the state six
weeks ago, and Obama halved it. Exit polls show the Illinois senator narrowed
the gap, compared with nearby, similar Ohio, with white men, though not by
nearly enough. Yet, as Obama closed the margin and vastly outspent Clinton,
polls say voters who made up their minds during the final week chose Clinton.
Despite the win, Clinton still trails Obama nationally by every measure and is
running out of time and money. The vote merely confirms what we've known since
mid-February: Obama will finish the primary season with more pledged delegates,
votes and state victories than Clinton, but neither candidate will secure
enough pledged delegates to cement the nomination. It will be up to
superdelegates, mainly Democratic officeholders and party officials, to decide
which candidate will face Republican presumptive nominee John McCain in
November.
Pick your nit Meanwhile, the primary competition is sucking all the life and light
out of both Democratic candidates. With so little to separate them, the
campaign is all about nitpicking and hair splitting. The Clintons and their
supporters excel at this brand of the infighting, but come November the
Republicans will show they're even better at it. ABC News helped lower the tone
and blows with a debate last Wednesday focused on the trivia rather than
issues. The blame, though, really rests with the candidates, who are doing a
remarkable job of making their opponent and themselves look small.
Clinton gave a gracious, if very vapid and insubstantial victory speech on
Tuesday night, but her campaign in recent weeks has been personal and vicious.
Her best path to victory is an Obama collapse, either from the weight of her
attacks or his own mistakes. She's worked at twisting anything Obama says and
does with scant regard to logic or veracity.
Clinton scored Obama for saying McCain would be an improvement over George W
Bush. That's after she said McCain, but not Obama, was qualified to be
president. She and surrogates accuse Obama of flip-flopping on the war in Iraq,
even though he's never supported it and she voted to authorize it. Clinton
seized on his remarks about "bitter" voters to play up her working class roots,
US$10 million income in her tax returns notwithstanding, and knock back a shot
(after sipping it first).
Clinton lied about her landing under fire in Bosnia, then joked about it - hey,
no big deal, nobody's perfect - then Bill Clinton repeated her lie. The Bosnia
tale, though trivial, goes the heart of her argument that she is more ready to
be president than Obama, based on her experience in the White House as First
Lady. What was her experience, precisely? Mangling healthcare reform so badly
it may not revisited this generation? Neither Clinton, Obama nor McCain has
ever run a business, state, or a government department. Still, she sharpened
the experience argument with a late ad in Philadelphia that evoked crises and
threats, including Osama "sounds like Obama" bin Laden.
God, guns and gaffes Obama has given Clinton plenty of ammunition for her attacks over the
past six weeks. During this hiatus between the primaries, the controversy over
Obama's pastor Reverend Jeremiah Wright broke, Obama spoke about small town
voters "clinging" to god or guns, one fundraiser went on trial for graft while
another turned out to be part of the Weather Underground, and the senator
looked like a geek bowling. Obama found himself fending off Clinton's attacks
and clarifying remarks, rather than putting out his own message. By many
measures, he had a very bad six weeks.
Yet he closed Clinton's margin in Pennsylvania, raised more money than she did,
and he's still well ahead in North Carolina, the biggest contest left, voting
in two weeks. The other May 6 contest in Indiana, another rust belt state, is
the one to watch, to the extent that any still are. In Pennsylvania, Clinton
trounced Obama among white, working class voters. These are the so-called
"Reagan Democrats" and they are likely to be key swing votes in November.
Indiana, neighboring Obama's home state of Illinois, will be a chance for him
to show superdelegates that he can win in a state with a sizeable white,
working class population.
The Pennsylvania win and the white working class demographic bolster Clinton's
case to superdelegates that she's more electable. Obama may have won more
states, but Clinton has won the big ones - New York, California, Texas, Ohio
(Florida, her team will whisper, even though the vote didn't count),
Pennsylvania - that have the most electoral votes. Of the seven states with 20
or more electoral votes, Obama has won only Illinois. But it's important to
remember that the November election will not be a re-run of the Democratic
primaries in those states.
Big blues Several big states - New York, California, Illinois and Pennsylvania -
will surely vote Democratic this time whether Obama or Clinton is the nominee.
Similarly Clinton's victory in Texas (though Obama got more delegates) doesn't
guarantee she'll deliver it in November. Current polls show Obama losing the
state less badly than she would in the general election. Projecting the
November vote in April is tricky business, but the primary campaign and
Republican McCain's asides from wings have told what to expect in that
campaign.
The political pros - and, since the race became a competition rather than
Hillary's coronation, the Clintons - say the primary contest toughens the
candidates and sharpens their messages for the general election. But in these
six weeks to focus on Pennsylvania and in more than a year of campaigning,
neither Democratic contender has produced winning responses to the challenges
McCain will pose to whichever one of them is the nominee.
Running with an unpopular president from his party in the White House, an
unpopular war overseas, and the economy foundering, McCain should be facing
annihilation in November. But the Republicans have crafted a pair of simple
messages: Democrats want to raise your taxes - even now, during a severe
economic downturn; and Democrats favor defeat in Iraq, walking away from all
the progress we've made, throwing all that taxpayer money and all those
American lives down the drain to let the terrorists wins.
Finding credible responses to those challenges is the real electability
argument. After spending all these weeks as the centers of national attention
and burning millions of dollars to get their messages out to voters, neither
Democrat is winning it yet.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America's
story to the world as a US diplomat and is author of
Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal,
high finance and cheap lingerie.
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