CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER Democrats do have a nominee
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - Hundreds of thousands of Democrats will vote in the United States
presidential elections in Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday, and those
results won't matter. But the reason the final tally won't matter is different
from the reason the vote didn't matter in Pennsylvania two weeks ago.
Senator Hillary Clinton's win in the Pennsylvania primary didn't change the
calculus in fashion back then: Senator Barack Obama still led in pledged
delegates, overall delegates, popular vote, and
states won, and thus remained the prohibitive favorite for the nomination.
This week's heavily contested Indiana primary - foolishly dubbed a "tie
breaker" by frontrunner Obama - is supposed to demonstrate whether the senator
from Illinois can succeed with white working class voters. But no matter who
wins where and by how much this
Tuesday, the new math of the race won't change: Clinton will not end her
campaign until she wins the nomination, regardless of the damage she inflicts
on the Democratic Party and its nominee.
In her Pennsylvania victory speech, Clinton said, "The American people don't
quit, and they deserve a president that won't quit." In the midst of her
vacuous, vapid chatter most notable for begging for donations - by a candidate
whose family income in recent years tops US$100 million - that line stood out.
Except for the disgraced Richard Nixon facing impeachment and likely
conviction, when has an American president quit?
Clinton faced appeals to drop out of the race during her February losing
streak, but no one expected her to drop out after a win in Pennsylvania. Her
fighting spirit is admirable, especially against the cool of Obama, who finally
got angry last week, he says, after his longtime preacher Reverend Jeremiah
Wright resurfaced and exponentially increased the damage his "God damn America"
soundbite had done.
An offer they should stop refusing But Clinton didn't say, "The American people are fighters, and they
deserve a president that who will fight every bit as hard as they do." She
specifically said quit, and the remark wasn't directed at voters. It was a
lightly veiled threat to the party leadership, superdelegates all, that the
senator from New York will continue her fight until she's their nominee.
The rush of superdelegates to Obama, including the high profile defection of
former Democratic national committee chairman Joe Andrew last week, is a plea
to end the increasingly harmful nomination fight and unite. But the Clintons
hold the only votes that matter on this topic, and they're already united
behind Hillary. It's up to the party to fall into line, or be destroyed
resisting.
The Clinton campaign got manna from the heavens with the reappearance of
Wright, but they've been hacking at Obama for months. Clinton said presumptive
Republican nominee John McCain was qualified to be commander in chief while
deafeningly silent on Obama. Although their positions on most issues are
similar, Clinton has twisted his planks to create phony attack points. She's
deployed images from children nestled snug in their beds to Osama bin Laden to
raise doubts about Obama's fitness for the presidency.
Her campaign claims, legitimately, that its attacks are kid stuff compared with
Republican tactics. Clinton's campaign isn't giving Republicans talking points
for autumn - as if the GOP couldn't find Wright or indicted Obama fundraiser
Tony Rezko on its own - they're either toughening Obama or destroying him
before the Republicans can.
Picking a winner Clinton's attacks have boosted Obama's unfavorable ratings, allowing
Clinton to claim - and some polls to show - he'll be the weaker candidate
against McCain. The Obama of February, with a fresh message of hope and lofty
aspirations would be more attractive than the muddied, bloodied Obama voters
see today, a full six months before the presidential vote.
More importantly, a badly compromised Obama undercuts the reigning myth that it
would be illegitimate for superdelegates not to nominate the candidate with the
most pledged delegates (and states won and popular votes in sanctioned
contests). Obama's woes boost the counter-argument that it would be
irresponsible for party leaders to nominate a candidate that doesn't have the
best chance of winning.
Clinton's case - that she's faced down the Republican attack machine for more
than a decade - is at best half-true. Running as a Democrat in New York is
hardly equivalent to running for president. In her first national race, facing
a largely Democratic electorate - some states allow independents and
Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries - Clinton is running a close
second. Can she expect to do better against McCain?
In the general election, Clinton will also confront vicious attacks from
Republicans far beyond anything she's seeing in primaries. Since she claims
Bill Clinton's presidency on her resume, Hillary must carry the baggage of
those eight years. As Clinton's fortunes rise, no doubt a factory is turning
out life size Monica Lewinsky blowup dolls for general election hecklers.
Republicans will again blame the Clinton administration for the September 11,
2001, attacks (while taking credit that "we haven't been hit again") and
portray withdrawal from Iraq as another Clinton move to weaken America and
embolden terrorists. Hillary provides additional targets such as her "sniper
fire" landing in Bosnia and her dismal failure to reform healthcare as first
lady. Most important, polls indicate 58% of voters don't trust her, a number
Republicans will exploit relentlessly.
Bring it on, the Clintons say. This election represents the best chance for a
Democrat to succeed a Republican president since 1976, and the Clintons are
loath to see it go to a candidate from outside their family. The Clintons are
confident they can win the White House, whereas, they'll confide, it's a leap
into the unknown with Obama, a half-black guy with an Arab middle name who
doesn't wear a flag pin, and whose wife and preacher have publicly and
viciously expressed their disdain for our country. But let's not talk about
Obama ...
Belushi doctrine The race is all about the Clintons, and they won't walk away until
they're strolling back to their old house on Pennsylvania Avenue following
Hillary's oath of office. Clinton's "quit" comment served notice that she
subscribes to John Belushi's declaration in the film Animal House:
"Nothing is over until we say it's over." Democrats might wish they saw this
brand of grit and determination and tenacity during the 2000 Florida vote
count, but that was about succeeding a Clinton, not a Clinton succeeding.
The peculiar architecture of the 2008 nomination race makes it simple for
Clinton to keep fighting until she wins. Since the race this year is too close
to be settled by pledged delegates, then the primary season is simply the
preliminary round. Clinton will finish that round narrowly behind Obama in all
likelihood. Democratic national committee chairman Howard "The Scream" Dean
wants superdelegates to declare their choices shortly after the final primary
on June 3. Despite Clinton's recently electoral successes, superdelegates
disturbed by the negativity of Clinton's campaign could put Obama over the top.
But, the Clintons will fight on to the convention in August, assuring
supporters that superdelegates can change their minds. (Clinton's side also
contends, less convincingly, that even pledged delegates can vote as they
please, even on the first ballot.) No matter what the delegate count says on
the eve of the convention, the Clintons still have two extraordinarily potent
weapons at their disposal: Michigan and Florida.
Clinton won unsanctioned primaries in those two states that all candidates
agreed would not count. The Clintons and their campaign will mount a convention
floor fight to seat those states' delegations and count their votes. When that
fails, expect a full court press - lawsuits in every court they can find, at
every level, for every reason. Legal precedents say political parties can set
their own rules of conduct, but the Clintons are bound to find a judge - it
only takes one, and Bill appointed plenty - to see things their way.
If the Democrats want to fight, lawsuits can tie up the nomination past
election day, or at least long enough to ensure that any Democratic candidate
not named Clinton will lose, and that Hillary will get the nomination unopposed
in 2012. Rest assured, the Clintons have the chutzpah to make it happen.
The Clintons are confident that, with an unpopular war and a lousy economy
under a Republican president, come November enough Democratic voters will hold
their noses and pull the lever for Hillary, putting the good of the country and
the party above their personal desires, something we've yet to see from a
Clinton. At some stage, the Democratic leadership and voters will understand
it's not worth the trouble to fight the Clintons, relent, and give Hillary the
nomination. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, even if you can no longer stand
'em.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s
story to the world as a US diplomat and is author of
Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal,
high finance and cheap lingerie.
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this
Tuesday, the new math of the race won't change: Clinton will not end her
campaign until she wins the nomination, regardless of the damage she inflicts
on the Democratic Party and its nominee.
