CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER California dreaming for John McCain
By Muhammad Cohen
LOS ANGELES - It took nearly two weeks in California until I saw a John McCain
bumper sticker. But I didn't see any Barack Obama (or Hillary Clinton) bumper
stickers either. California is a critical state for the Democrats in the
presidential race, holding a nation-high 55 electoral votes. So far, by my
count, the presumed Republican nominee leads 1-0.
The Republicans haven't carried California since George H W Bush won it in
1988, but McCain, the senator from neighboring Arizona, promises to challenge
the Democrats here. Bush's 1988
California gold strike capped a run of six straight Republican wins in
California. In fact, between Harry Truman's upset win in 1948 and 1992, the
Democrats won California only once, in Lyndon Johnson's 1964 rout of Barry
Goldwater.
Losing California would mean game over for Democratic Party hopes of capturing
the White House. Even if McCain can't break the Democrats' four election
winning streak in the Golden State, effort exerted to hold California means
less time and money for other states. But McCain's quest is far from hopeless.
McCain hopes to occupy the middle ground and paint his opponent as a radical
liberal, as Poppy Bush did with Democratic rival Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Moreover, as in 1988, California has a Republican governor.
Californians buy more petrol and pay more for it than other Americans. Prices
in southern California already have reached US$4.60 per gallon, boosted above
prices in other states by California's special fuel blending requirements to
minimize pollution. While Californians are very protective of their state's
environment, McCain's willingness to drill in other coastal, wilderness and
wildlife areas will certainly find favor in conservative stronghold Orange
County and other bastions of conservatism.
Twins?
Rising right along with fuel prices (and temperatures here, topping 100 degrees
Fahrenheit, 38 Celsius since late last week), California's unemployment rate
has reached 6.8%, up 0.6 percentage points in May. Whether the news on the
economy works for or against McCain will be a key to the election here and
nationwide.
Voters could decide to blame McCain for George W Bush's policies that have
contributed mightily to the current mess. From the war in Iraq to the shoddy
oversight of credit markets, Bush administration policies put the US in its
current economic spot. Even when the administration was patting itself on the
back for the strength of the economy, its cocktail of tax cuts for the rich and
deficit spending produced growth with minimal job growth. Voters could decide
Republicans should suffer for their policies that have brought on the current
economic mess. In that case, McCain loses.
The Republicans have a counter argument that could prove extremely effective.
"Even in this terrible economic climate," they'll say, "Democrats want to raise
your taxes." It's a simple point and, if it gains traction with voters, McCain
could win.
"That could be a problem," Los Angeles-based legal analyst for radio's Ed
Schultz Show Norman Goldman concedes. A self-proclaimed liberal, Goldman
believes the war in Iraq and the economy will drown out all of the other noise
Republicans may make. They can raise questions about Obama's patriotism, call
him a liberal, or try playing the race card. But Goldman says it will come down
to the war and the economy. He believes the desire for change is so
overwhelming that Obama will be elected.
Collateral damage
In fact, Obama's status as the presumed Democratic nominee alone tells Goldman
how much the tide has turned. "We had [Richard] Nixon, and I thought that was
as bad as it could get. Then we had [Ronald] Reagan, and I thought, 'Okay,
we've hit rock bottom, it can't get any worse.' Then this guy Bush ..." Goldman
says, trailing off and shaking his head. "They've screwed things up so badly
that even with a black man with a funny name nominated for president, the Dems
will win. That would have never happened under other circumstances. It's like
1932 - great leaps forward come in hard times."
It took unusual circumstances for another American with a funny name and a
foreign father to become California's governor. Arnold Schwarzenegger took
office in a recall vote in 2003 and was elected to a full term in 2006.
Celebrities turned politicos are nothing new for California, though. Clint
Eastwood and Sonny Bono served as mayors, song and dance man George Murphy was
a long time member of Congress, and, of course, Ronald Reagan started his
second career as California's governor.
The Governator (combining his political title with his title role the Terminator
film series) rode his popularity into office, but has had a rough ride there.
California state government remains hamstrung by radical anti-tax sentiment.
Proposition 13, passed back in 1978, limits local property taxes to 1% of
assessed value and requires a two-thirds vote of both houses of the state
legislature for all tax hikes. As a result, California now ranks near the
bottom of expenditures per pupil and student performance in education and
suffers for chronic budget gaps. Californians rely on the state for their
beloved freeways, for parks, for one of the most extensive university systems
in the nation; they just prefer not to pay for it. That brand of economics is
the real American dream, California style.
That radical, anti-tax sentiment gives McCain a prayer to win the state. Mixing
tax cuts with a libertarian message of getting government off your back could
be a winning message for McCain beyond the conservative choir concentrated in
Orange Country, south of Los Angeles. Schwarzenegger backs McCain and can be
expected to campaign vigorously for him. (Perhaps Schwarzenegger's Kennedy clan
wife, Maria Shriver, will campaign for Obama.) But to keep conservatives on
board, McCain can't combine his fiscal conservatism and maverick image with
Schwarzenegger's moderate positions on social issues like abortion and same-sex
marriage. McCain also can't play the role of newcomer as Schwarzenegger did.
Judgment day
"People voted for Schwarzenegger because he represented something new, a
different kind of politics," one liberal activist who asked not be identified
because he does business with state agencies. "He's still popular personally.
People liked it when he called the Democrats 'girlie men' because it was
different. It wasn't the usual stuff they were used to hearing from
politicians, and that's what they wanted. But they're realizing that's not
enough to fix the state's problems."
Perversely, that's good news for McCain's California dreaming about winning the
state in November. Californians have seen the new politics that Obama promises,
and, so far, it hasn't work. Schwarzenegger brought a fresh breath of air to
Sacramento, the state capital, pledging to reach across the political divide to
create a new coalition to end the state's political gridlock. His efforts to
bypass the legislature in 2005 through a series of ballot initiatives failed.
Forewarned should be forearmed, and Californians may treat Obama's promise of
post-partisan government with a particularly healthy does of skepticism that it
deserves. That could turn California voters away from the Illinois senator,
thinking they've seen this movie before and know the unsatisfying ending.
The downside for McCain is that despite the failures of his administration,
Californians aren't ready to tell Schwarzenegger "hasta la vista, baby". He
can't run for governor again due to term limits, but there's enthusiasm from
him to run against arch liberal Democratic senator Barbara Boxer in 2010.
Schwarzenegger may not be perfect in the role of politician but he's a star,
and California, home of Hollywood, runs on star power. In the race between
Obama and McCain, it's not hard to tell who the star is.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America�s story
to the world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal,
high finance and cheap lingerie.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
