| |
Asia leads global trade
growth
By Gustavo Capdevila
GENEVA - Global trade grew 4.5 percent in 2003,
a modest recovery with respect to the healthy margins
achieved in the 1990s, said the World Trade Organization
(WTO) on Monday, though predictions are for stronger
trade growth this year.
WTO experts said in
Geneva that the outlook for 2004 is more encouraging,
but is subject to the performance of the economies of
the United States and the European Union, as well as the
evolution of petroleum prices.
The WTO
categorized the trade growth rate for 2003 as "modest",
because it "is still quite a bit below the average from
1990 to the present", said Patrick Low, the
organization's economic research director. From 1990 to
2000, the average growth in world trade was 6.7 percent,
he said. Nevertheless, the 4.5 percent for 2003 "is
better than what was expected by many, included
ourselves", said the expert.
Global merchandise
exports rose 16 percent last year, reaching US$7.3
trillion, while services exports climbed 12 percent, to
$1.8 trillion.
Low explained that 2003's
"rebounding growth really was thanks to a number of
Asian countries and to the United States", adding that
the transition economies of the former socialist bloc
also put in strong performances.
Latin America,
meanwhile, recorded positive export growth "but was
stagnant on the import side". Western Europe remained
sluggish, summarized the WTO expert Monday in Geneva.
The developing countries on average saw "quite decent
growth as well", he said.
Said WTO
director-general Supachai Panitchpakdi: "Clearly, the
improved economic situation in the United States and
Asia has given an important boost to world trade ... But
when you look around the world, the pace of trade growth
remains uneven and there remain many barriers to trade
globally."
Supachai called for overcoming
existing trade distortions and maintained that the best
way to do so would be to wrap up the negotiations of the
Doha Round, which have been bogged down much of the time
since they were launched in the Qatari capital in
November 2001.
The award for "most dynamic trade
performance in 2003" goes to Asia and the transition
economies, with merchandise exports and imports
expanding 10 to 12 percent, or more than double the pace
of the world merchandise trade average.
Chinese
imports jumped 40 percent (not adjusted for price
changes) and exports nearly matched that at 35 percent.
"Unprecedented levels of expansion for a country with
such substantial trade volume," says the WTO.
Western Europe and Latin America saw the weakest
import growth of all regions, recording less than
two-percent expansion, which the WTO says is a
reflection of their sluggish economies.
Low said
the overall global trade growth in 2003 comes in part
from currency movements, such as the weakening of the
dollar and the strengthening of the euro and the yen to
some extent.
"Maybe two thirds of this nominal
growth could be attributable to changes in the dollar
price of exchange," said the research director.
Another factor influencing global trade performance
in 2003 was the rise in some commodity prices.
Petroleum, in particular, saw a 16 percent hike, while
non-fuel commodities increased on spot markets by 7
percent. The average increase in prices for manufactured
goods was 10 percent - the first rise since 1995.
"Agriculture, too, showed a turnaround from previous
downward trend," said Low, adding, "Of course, these
numbers are also partly explained by exchange rates, but
not entirely."
For 2004, "the way things are
going we are estimating a 7.5 percent world trade growth
rate", twice the global growth rate for gross domestic
product (GDP), which is forecast to reach 3.7 percent.
"Most of this predicted expansion would come
from changes in the situation, from expansion in North
America, we hope Western Europe, and Latin America,"
said Low, adding that Asia and the transition economies
may maintain their increased trade growth rates above
the world average.
However, these forecasts face
some risks. For example, the current account deficit of
the United States is projected to increase further in
2004, although its size is considered to be
unsustainable in the medium-term, states the WTO report
on trade growth. The US current account deficit had
reached $542 billion in 2003, or the equivalent of 4.9
percent of US GDP.
Another threat comes from a
potential weakening of the European recovery. The WTO
warns that investment growth in that region could falter
if the European currencies continue to appreciate as
they have since late 2003.
Furthermore, states
the WTO, "Most projections for world economic growth
assume a fall in average oil prices in 2004. However,
oil markets have often defied the forecasts."
WTO trade analyst Michael Finger said in Geneva
on Monday that the second half of 2003 and the beginning
of this year have seen improved prospects for Latin
American exports. Ranked first in this sense is Mexico,
followed by Venezuela, although Brazilian exports are
performing well and the Argentina recovery remains
solid, he said.
(Inter Press Service)
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
