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     Mar 5, '14

Will emerging markets come back
By Michael Pettis

Beijing-based economist Michael Pettis has carved out through his "China Financial Markets" blog a distinct position with his commentaries on the Chinese economy, notably with his consideration of the difficulties it faces with its necessary rebalancing towards a more consumption-based model. Asia Times Online here draws the attention of Pettis' latest insightful analysis to a wider public.

I don't often make reference to these kinds of things in my blog, but Saturday's terrorist attack in the Kunming train station - in which 29 innocent people were hacked to death (the toll was

especially high among the elderly who were unable to run away quickly enough from the killers) - fills me with dread and dismay. This kind of brutal massacre is not about sending a message to Beijing or to the world but is rather aimed at getting the authorities to overreact so as to create hatred within the country. ...

And it is not just in Kunming that things seem unsettled. Recent events in the Ukraine have capped several years of social unrest, revolution, and war around the world, and these seem to have intensified since the beginning of the global crisis of 2007-08.

This should not have surprised us, and we should probably brace ourselves for several more years of political uncertainty. In late 2001, I published an article with Foreign Policy discussing what I expected the world to look like following the global crisis that I, perhaps a little prematurely, was expecting imminently.

More ...

Michael Pettis is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a finance professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. He has taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business. He is also Chief Strategist at Guosen Securities (HK), a Shenzhen-based investment bank.

(Reprinted with permission. For Michael Pettis' blog, see here.)

(Copyright 2014 Michael Pettis)




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