Page 2 of 2 The post-abundance
era By Michael T Klare
scarce, senior officials will come under
enormous pressure to "solve" the problem by any
means necessary, including the use of military
force.
In the case of energy, this could
lead to wars over oil. Even if oil was not the
only motive for the US invasion of Iraq, the
United States has long sought to maintain a
dominant position in the oil-rich Persian Gulf
area and a permanent military presence in Iraq
will
facilitate US efforts to seize the oil of Iran and
neighboring countries if a decision is ever made
to do so. The US Department of Defense is also
beefing up its capacity to "project" military
power into the oil-producing areas of Africa and
the Caspian Sea basin. No one in official circles
will admit that "guarding foreign oilfields" is
the ultimate objective of Pentagon war plans, but
it is becoming increasingly evident that the US
military is being reconfigured to accomplish
exactly this task.
Nor is the United
States alone in thinking along these lines. China
also seeks to enhance its capacity to project
power into foreign oil-producing areas. And
Russia, with a surplus of energy, seeks to exploit
its advantageous position to extract concessions
from less privileged nations.
Future
shortages of water are also likely to prove a
source of international friction and conflict.
Egypt, which relies on the Nile River for
virtually all of its water, has threatened to
attack Sudan and Ethiopia if they proceed with
plans to dam the Nile and divert some of its
waters into irrigation schemes desperately needed
to feed their rapidly growing populations. Israel
has also threatened to go to war with neighboring
Arab states if they move ahead with plans to dam
the Yarmuk River (one of the tributaries of the
Jordan) or otherwise jeopardize Israel's already
over-stretched water supply. Such threats - and
possibly actual outbreaks of conflict - are likely
to become more common as the demand for water
rises and global supplies dwindle.
The
gestalt of austerity The end of abundance
is not the same thing as outright scarcity. Some
commodities, such as oil, may become truly scarce
in later decades of the 21st century, but they
will not disappear altogether. Those with means
will still be able to purchase gasoline and
air-conditioning and other soon-to-be-luxury
items. But the end of abundance will create a new
international environment - a new gestalt, [1] if
you will - in which expectations are lowered and
struggles over what remains become fiercer and
more violent.
Ideological, political, and
ethnic differences will have their place in this
new environment, but increasingly these will be
infused with or subordinated to resource
pressures. The growing edginess evident in Sino-US
relations, for example, can be traced at least in
part to a perception that the United States and
China are becoming bitter competitors in the
global hunt for new sources of petroleum.
Likewise, the growing frostiness in US-Russian
relations can be attributed in part to Moscow's
heavy-handed use of its natural-gas monopoly to
browbeat neighboring countries such as Ukraine and
Georgia. This is exactly how we would expect
international affairs to evolve in the
Post-Abundance Era.
Prediction is always
risky, and it is entirely possible that some
unanticipated event on the scale of September 11
or World War II will come along and redefine the
current epoch. But such a calamity aside, the end
of global abundance and the resulting scramble for
resources is likely to prove the most conspicuous
feature of the emerging international landscape.
Note 1. A form of
psychotherapy built on the experiential ideal of
"here and now".
Michael T Klare
is a professor of peace and world-security studies
at Hampshire College, a Foreign Policy in Focus
columnist and the author of Blood and Oil: The
Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing
Dependence on Imported Petroleum (Metropolitan
Books, 2004).
