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2 THE ROVING
EYE Who profits from a gas
OPEC? By Pepe Escobar
DOHA and DAMASCUS - Four years after the
fall of Baghdad - which for the neo-cons would
signal the advent of the US as "the new OPEC" - a
meeting in the tiny Gulf emirate of Qatar may be
signaling the birth of a new cartel: a "gas OPEC",
grouping countries controlling 73% of the world's
gas reserves and 42% of production.
It's
not as simple as it seems, because a gas cartel
along the lines of the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries is
above all a brilliant
political idea - an astute exercise in (new)
branding. The irony is that in this case the
wealthy West - so keen on branding when it comes
to soft drinks and TVs - has been shaken to the
core.
Doha could not be a more adequate
venue for this crucial meeting of the
soon-to-be-rebranded Gas Exporting Countries Forum
- an organization founded in 2001. By 2008, Qatar
will be the world's premier supplier of liquefied
natural gas (LNG). It already boasts the highest
per capita income in the Middle East. Official
spin rules that the emirate is "carefully
investing" no less than US$130 billion over the
next five to seven years to build a "dynamic and
sustainable economy". Iraqis about to be
"liberated" from their oil wealth have every
reason to be jealous, not to mention the array of
gas-deprived developing countries.
Members
of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum include
Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran,
Libya, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and
Tobago, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
Norway is an observer. The founding fathers of the
gas OPEC would be Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela
and Algeria. All their political leaders are in
favor - from Vladimir Putin to Mahmud Ahmadinejad,
from Hugo Chavez to Abdelaziz Bouteflika. That's
what sends shivers down the spines of the United
States and the European Union - testy Putin and
favorite bogeymen du jour Chavez and
Ahmadinejad laying down the law in yet another
powerful club.
Russia holds the world's
largest gas reserves (47.8 billion cubic meters),
followed by Iran (26.7 billion cubic meters) and
Qatar (23.7 billion cubic meters). But production
is another matter. According to 2005 data, Russia
controls no less than 21.6% of the world's
natural-gas production, well ahead of Algeria
(3.2%), Iran (3.1%), Indonesia (2.8%) and Malaysia
(2.2%). Russia above all wants to become a huge
global exporter: for the moment it exports only a
third of its production. Iran, incredible as it
might seem, imports more from Turkmenistan than it
exports to Turkey - because of investment
problems. Like Russia, Iran's aim is to become a
major global exporter.
No wonder Iran,
with the world's second-largest gas reserves and
desperately needing to export more, has vividly
recommended to Russia the creation of a gas OPEC.
Unlike the oil market, in gas matters there is no
price coordination: prices are individually
negotiated - for as long as five years per
contract - between buyer and producer. Buyers -
overwhelmingly from wealthy Western nations -
usually have the upper hand. A gas OPEC makes
total sense for producing countries in terms of a
swift counterpunch to the West's economic might.
As far as Iran is concerned, it's strategically
fundamental: it would open the way for a much
stronger presence in Asian and European markets,
and it would improve its security and power of
dissuasion. To cut to the chase: with Iran in a
gas OPEC, no Western nation would dream of
supporting a US preemptive strike.
Easier
said than done. Qatar may be in favor but as it is
in fact little other than a US military base,
Washington would never agree to its membership in
a gas cartel. Moreover, Qatar already ships a lot
of LNG to the US. Even before the meeting, Qatari
Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah told
Reuters in Abu Dhabi: "We do not see the need for
the creation of a gas organization because the
issue of gas is more complex."
Turkmenistan's case, for that matter, is
quite complex - as the Central Asia gas republic's
natural wealth is actually exported through
Russian pipelines. There's no inkling on the
intentions of
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