WASHINGTON - Globalization, climate change
and the mass production of biofuels are pushing up
food prices worldwide, which could jeopardize the
livelihoods of the world's poorest, according to a
report released on Tuesday by the International
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
"Food prices have been steadily decreasing
since the Green Revolution, but the days of
falling food prices may be over," said Joachim von
Braun, lead author of the report and director general
of
IFPRI, a research organization under the
consultative group on International Agricultural
Research, which describes itself as a partnership
of countries, international and regional
organizations and private foundations that foster
sustainable agricultural growth.
Titled,
"The World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and
Required Actions", the 16-page report examines how
various global trends are impacting world hunger
on both the supply and demand ends of the market.
"Surging demand for feed, food and fuel
has recently led to drastic price increases, which
are not likely to fall in the foreseeable future,"
von Braun said. But "climate change will also have
a negative impact on food production."
Similar findings have been reported by the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, the US Department of Agriculture, and
the UN Food and Agriculture Organization,
according to IFPRI.
Researchers predict
that shifting weather conditions resulting from
climate change will disrupt rainfall patterns that
farmers rely on to nourish their crops and water
the grasslands that feed their livestock. As a
result, cereal production in South Asia could drop
22% by 2080, while wheat production in Africa may
virtually disappear by that time, the report said.
Furthermore, temperature increases of more
than three degrees Celsius could in turn lift food
prices by as much as 40%. The production of
crop-based biofuels - renewable energy sources
developed in response to climate change - may also
dramatically impact food supply, and thereby
further escalate food prices.
If the
countries that have already committed to biofuel
production, as well as other high-potential
producer countries, carry out their current
investment plans, global maize prices would
increase by 26% and oilseed prices would rise by
18% by 2020, according to the report. This is due
to state subsidies for biofuels, as well the shift
in committing scarce resources toward cultivating
biofuel crops.
"As biofuels become
increasingly profitable, more land, water and
capital will be diverted to their production, and
the world will face more trade-offs between food
and fuel," the report said.
In the US
alone, the use of maize for ethanol production
increased by two and a half times between 2000 and
2006.
On the demand side of worldwide food
production, globalization, economic growth and
urbanization in places such as China and India
have impacted people's dietary preferences and
food choices, the report noted. While demand is on
the increase for processed food and high-value
agricultural crops such as vegetables, fruit, meat
and dairy, demand for grains and other staple
crops is declining.
This shift in "tastes"
represents a microcosm of the food costs issue,
said IPFRI research analyst Timothy Sulser, who
also contributed to the report. As wealthier
populations shift to a diet full of meat, fruits,
and vegetables, poorer populations will struggle
to afford ever pricier food staples.
"There will be an even wider gap between
affluent people and poorer people in terms of
access to a nutritional diet" if trends continue,
Sulser said.
With many factors threatening
the world's food supply and demand, immediate
action is needed in the areas of international
development and global trade policy in order to
avert what could be a dramatic hunger crisis,
according to authors of the report.
Eliminating trade barriers and programs
that set aside agriculture resources is one way
that developed countries could help equip
developing countries for the rising food prices.
Other suggestions include strengthening policies
to promote early childhood nutrition - thereby
diminishing the risks related to limited food
access - and incorporating food and agriculture
considerations into the agenda for domestic and
international climate change policy.
Yet
these solutions may only mitigate the effects of a
global trend whose causal forces, such as
globalization and climate change, have already
been set in motion, say researchers.
"The
policy suggestions are intended to help minimize
some of the impact of these changes," said Sulser.
"It's important now to look at how we can help
people adapt to the changing the situation."
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