When anyone from Asia travels to the US or
Europe, they inevitably notice the segregated
lines at the immigration counter - the fast moving
ones for nationals (in the case of Europe, all the
rest of the continent as well) and the generally
crowded lines for immigrants. For much of the last
century, this arrangement elicited no complaints,
seeing as it reflected the economic realities of
the 20th century.
As we usher in the first
Year of the Rat of this century though, perhaps
some thought can be spared for the future of such
emigrants. Would today's youth in China and India
bother to leave the region for life in Europe and
the United States? The answer may indeed surprise
most Western observers, in that there is no
longer
an unequivocal "yes" about it.
Asian
economies continue to grow and more importantly
offer opportunities for wealth accretion in a
context that is best understood by the
carpetbaggers of the Wild West more than any other
group of people. While all of the asset bubbles in
place will eventually recede, today's economic
engines across Asian countries will continue to
produce millionaires well after the last European
checks himself (or more likely herself, given
relative longevity of women versus men in the
West) into the grave.
Human beings only
ever make irrational decisions, but societies
always make rational choices. Thus, while some
individual Chinese and Indians are likely to
choose studying, marrying and living in the US,
the decision will no longer attract the same
social approval as in the recent past. With better
economic opportunities within these countries,
those leaving the local education system and its
automatic leap into skilled workforce will be seen
not as winners, but as losers, ie the people who
couldn't cope with the rigors and competition of
the existing dynamic.
This is already the
case with the most talented Chinese mathematicians
and scientists, as well as Indian engineers. A
number of Indian companies have indeed expanded
their recruitment programs to "accommodate" those
who studied abroad in a cute reversal of the
rather more automatic choice of such people in
past decades.
In the past, the choice of
local graduates was primarily driven by cost
considerations, but increasingly now this has been
replaced by quality as the top echelons of Indian
and Chinese business are dominated by locally
educated people rather than those trained abroad.
Even if the latter group boasts successful
entrepreneurs in China today (as well as India),
what really opens the doors for them is their
basic education within the homeland.
Imploding banks in the US and Europe also
rob many a talented graduate of their chosen
vocation, as career paths are no longer automatic.
Indeed, many students who have signed up for MBA
programs in the US next year are reportedly
dropping out or postponing their plans because of
fears that the economic decline will prove more
permanent than temporary.
Remember the
colonists Fairly recent history tells us
that the last such replacement of employment
opportunities happened just after World War II,
when an enfeebled Britain pulled out its nationals
from across Asia and progressively Africa. Unable
to sustain the cost of colonizing these countries,
and needing better quality labor to replenish what
had been lost in the two world wars, Britain
simply threw in the towel.
The result was
that it was no longer "expected" that the second
son onwards of landed families would end up in the
service of the king (and queen before him),
civilizing the colonies while playing a round of
cricket with the natives. Instead, in the years
after World War II, they were expected to work for
Her Majesty's Government within England, sorting
out more basic tasks such as fixing local roads
and ensuring that the trains ran on time.
The severe depletion of able-bodied men in
World War II only hastened the process of
localizing talent, leaving the colonies
essentially unmanageable. While the impact of this
removal of talented bureaucrats wasn't immediately
noticeable, today's spiraling tragedies in Africa
have much to do with the rather haphazard
administration that prevailed in the last days of
the British Empire, resulting in the creation of
patently unviable countries such as Pakistan, Iraq
and Kenya.
This isn't exaggeration; after
all, working the colonies was economically the
most opportune task for many a young man, with
commensurate luxuries in terms of quality of life
and a lovely tan that spoke of wild adventures in
faraway lands. That was in turn a function of the
post-Industrial Revolution period wherein
productivity gains far outstripped the supply of
labor and caused deflation in wages that many
English authors found substantial time to examine
(for example, the redoubtable Charles Dickens).
As economic dynamics changed, many a young
man found that a life of sufficient income
offering a comfortable existence beckoned at home,
along with a rather irresistibly low risk of
getting beheaded by the irritable chieftain in the
next borough; just the sort of thing that might
spoil one's afternoon tea.
Asian
emigration to the US and Europe of course followed
the opposite path, ie it was natives attempting to
leave behind their lower quality lives in pursuit
of greater economic opportunities. That process
was also helped along by the rule of law and other
niceties in Western societies.
Many of
these niceties of Western life are now of course
lost to the common man, as Europeans and American
governments get more intrusive - indeed, in the
case of Britain going so far as to illegally bug
the telephones of a Muslim member of Parliament.
Meanwhile, much of America has become hostile
territory for Asians who are seen as contributing
to job losses and the general economic decline.
These feelings are certainly exaggerated
now due to the prevailing electoral dynamics of
the two major political parties, but the
undercurrents appear real enough to persist for
much longer.
A few years back, a Mexican
movie that depicted California without Mexican
laborers was a surprise hit on the "art" film
circuit [1]. Today, though, that movie can be seen
as an eerie reminder of the future that beckons
the US and Europe.
Note A day
without Mexicans, 2004, directed by Sergio
Arau
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about
sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
