A new economy is on the doorstep. It's not the economy we used to know as "the
new economy". It's not the information-technology-driven growth of the last few
decades, although that makes up part of the new economy. A new economy is
rapidly emerging, one that will transform the ways that people live and do
business.
The name of the new new economy is the "ecological growth economy". This is
neither a bad joke nor an anachronism. It is the emerging new reality. It is
also the precondition for the continuation of human progress and the survival
of millions of other species on Earth. We have an obvious choice: we can speed
up the realization of the ecological growth economy now, or our children and
theirs will suffer for centuries.
It appears to be an easy choice, doesn't it? We can choose
human progress over suffering. And yet we are not making this choice at
sufficient speed or scale today. Ignorance, institutional inertia, vested
interests and greed are the main reasons for our far-too-slow action. However,
as sentient creatures (Homo sapiens), humans are equipped with knowledge, good
will and a degree of wisdom.
A majority of people around the Earth today are realizing that we cannot
survive without embracing the ecological growth economy. Most people are
willing to join forces and are willing to make certain sacrifices in lifestyle
to achieve an economy that will allow the continuation of human progress into
future generations. Fortunately, an increasing number of people are making
great efforts to bring about this new economy.
Is growth evil?
The ecological growth economy will not mean sacrifice and will not cause a
return to low growth or no growth. It will not mean a less-attractive
lifestyle, but will, in fact, create a more attractive one. It will drive the
continued growth of the global economy into the second half of the 21st
century. It will enable the greatest consumption boom in history and will
create more new business opportunities than ever before.
Does this sound unlikely or undesirable? I argue that it is inevitable. Why?
Because it is the only way we can choose life over death, continued human
progress over prolonged suffering.
The human population will consume at least twice as much food in 2050 as in
1995. Energy consumption will rise by approximately 76% between 2000 and 2030.
The urban population will rise from 3.3 billion in 2007 to 5 billion in 2030
and further on to 6.4 billion in 2050. There will be an estimated 9.15 billion
people on Earth in 2050, compared with 6.7 billion in early 2009, and they will
all want to live decent lives.
They will want to be able to consume, to expand their personal freedom and
mobility, and to enjoy what they define as a prosperous or satisfactory
lifestyle. Their combined consumption drive will most likely be the greatest
and longest seen in human history in any 50-year span. Neither laws nor
conventional appeals to morality will stop these new consumers from consuming
more.
There is a crucial question of "how much is enough" or of what constitutes a
prosperous lifestyle, and there is certainly gross over-consumption in many
countries, but prosperity will not be defined by scholars or by
environmentalists. It will be defined and realized by people all over the Earth
in and through their daily lives.
What is the ecological growth economy?
To enable all people on Earth to pull out of hunger and poverty and create for
themselves a life of prosperity and human satisfaction, we must make
operational an ecological growth economy within the next decade or so. We do
not have the choice between growth and zero growth. Denial of continued growth
in the next few decades is not an option. It would deny billions of people a
fair and decent life and keep large portions of the global population mired in
poverty and misery.
The question, at least when we look at the four to five decades ahead of us, is
not "growth or no growth". The question is "what will the quality of growth be"
and how will we achieve it. The obvious answer is growth based upon sound
ecological principles.
Business as usual is a literal dead end. It would cause more misery, death, and
destruction. The quality of growth must undergo dramatic changes within a very
short period of time. What lies ahead of us is a grand challenge: not only is
it an industrial revolution, it is also a revolution in the way we perceive
economics, business, profits, and prosperity. The bad news is that we do not
have much time. The good news is that the new economy is already taking shape
and picking up speed.
What does it mean to build an economy on sound ecological principles? It means
that all forms of business and other human activity will be directed toward a
truly cyclical use of resources, zero carbon emissions, and restoration and
reinvestment in natural capital. To describe this economy in detail is not
possible in this short article, but two major points are essential.
First, the ecological growth economy must be driven by a major restructuring of
the rules and incentives built into national as well as international economic
systems. This trend can only intensify in the coming years, and the truly
crucial question is whether the speed and scale at which this restructuring of
our economies takes place is great enough. We need to not just envision but
also implement the new rules and incentives of the next industrial revolution.
Second, the ecological growth economy represents one of the largest market
opportunities in human history. All sectors of the economy in virtually all
parts of the world will move toward green, clean, and sustainable - energy,
mobility, housing, appliances, food production, water usage. Every key area
supporting human life will be recalibrated or recreated as the ecological
growth economy picks up speed. Countries, companies, and entrepreneurs who
understand this transformation will be presented with a virtually unlimited
supply of new business opportunities.
Can we evolve to become homo sociens?
In order to implement the ecological growth economy at sufficient speed and
scale, we need unprecedented global collaboration and a strong sense of shared
vision for the future. We also need to be better at listening to the voices of
future generations and the many other species on Earth. In more concrete terms,
we need more concerted and forceful action from international leaders in forums
such as the Group of Eight, Group of 20, and the United Nations, and new forms
of collaboration between business and civil society.
In the few decades since humans first saw Earth from space and then started
discussing the possibility that our present way of life might not be
sustainable, a greater sense of global consciousness has clearly emerged.
Technological tools such as fax machines and the Internet have helped nurture
this healthy sense of globalism. I believe that if we are to make the grand
shift to a new industrial and economic system, built firmly on ecological
pillars, we will need to further evolve culturally, mentally, and even
spiritually. I call this the evolution from homo sapiens to homo sociens -
human beings who share and collaborate.
We have sufficient knowledge of the ecological and social problems the world
faces today, and plenty of realistic simulations of how tomorrow might look.
This information should speed up our evolution into homo sociens. This means
looking beyond national interests and placing a higher priority on global or
Earth interests. It means realizing that the human species cannot survive
without valuing and protecting the myriad living creatures on this planet that
enable our survival.
Most importantly, it means making such values operational in international and
national agreements, as well as in corporate strategy. The future is ours to
choose.
Peter David Pedersen, born in Denmark, is the chief executive of E-Square
Inc., one of Japan's leading sustainability think tanks and consultancies. He
works with some 100 Japan corporations annually on integrating sustainability
into corporate strategy. He introduced the concept of LOHAS (Lifestyles of
Health And Sustainability) to Japan in 2002.
(Published with permission of the
Global Policy Innovations program at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in
International Affairs.
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