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     Feb 13, 2010
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Oedipus wrecks
By Chan Akya

Heaven is where the cooks are French, the policemen are English, the mechanics are German, the lovers are Italian and the bankers, Swiss. Hell is where the cooks are English, the policemen are German, the mechanics are French, the lovers are Swiss and the bankers Italian.
- European joke detailing comfortable stereotypes.

The stereotypes that the above joke alludes to are long past their sell-by dates. For example, some of the best chefs in Europe, if not the world, happen to be English - Gordon Ramsay, Jamie Oliver and so on. Similarly, in recent weeks, it has been German investigators who have, with a large degree of finesse, acquired details of tax-dodging citizens through the simple mechanism of

  

paying for the details, even as English society has gone to bits due to the failure of policing.

Meanwhile, it is a Swiss bank that has been the epitome of failure across the European banking scene, even as the Italian sector has avoided the worst of the banking crisis. Lastly, as major Japanese manufacturers all rush through with their product recalls, it is a French-run car company that has avoided all the missteps this far. So that’s pretty much all the stereotypes quoted above that have gone out of the window.

Some ascribe these remarkable changes to European integration helping to meld the various cultures, ushering in transfers of expertise across different countries that engender appropriate behavioral changes. Then again, not every bit of stereotypical national characteristic has changed since or due to the integration. Indeed, there is some evidence that some assumed national characteristics have been accentuated due to integration.
Therein, as the Bard used to write, lies the tale.

The subject of this week's article is not anyone else in Europe, but the ones who have caused the most recent market conniptions, namely the Greeks. In the ancient drama Oedipus Rex by Sophocles Oedipus kills his father, falls in love with his own mother, Jocasta, who then commits suicide. As an historical footnote, this ended up being one of the most useful talking points for modern psychologists: "Tell me about your relationship with your mother," they say when one is supine on the couch (or so one is led to believe).

In the more modern retelling of the fable, the old country of Oedipus, the Hellenic Republic (Greece) apparently has developed a similar morbid fascination for the maternal institution of the euro, and in doing so may be exposing the entire European economy for the wreck that it is.

Hence the awful pun in the title of this week's article. In any event, all of that will be the end result of the extraordinary drama that has unfolded over the past few weeks. There are multiple facets to the crisis, all of which bear some degree of evaluation before our eventual (and damning) verdict can be arrived at.

Background
Ever since the European experiment began in earnest just over 10 years ago, the key question has been whether all the member countries would choose to play along in their version of blind man's bluff. With archaic rules on budget deficits and subsidies across different categories that are passed directly to citizens of various countries by the European Commission, the mechanism for managing sovereign debt has proved anything but simple.

By embracing an economic union before adopting political measures that could have harmonized policies, the EU (and with it the euro) has always been an accident waiting to happen. There is no intrinsic mechanism to differentiate between the debts of various European member countries, particularly when most carry very high credit ratings.

Think of what used to happen before the common currency came along - the Italians issued their government bonds in lira, the French in francs, the Germans in marks and the Greeks in drachma. Each currency carried its own interest rate and was subject, from an investor perspective, to attendant reviews of multiple risks - currency (movement against investor's native currency), interest rates and lastly credit risks. It is fair to say that under this situation, the penchant for a German bank to hold Spanish government bonds denominated in pesetas was fairly minimal.

All that changed with currency integration. Quite suddenly, the above-mentioned German bank could choose to buy either German government bonds (bunds) denominated in euro, or Portuguese bonds also denominated in euro. There was no native currency risk to speak of, and interest rates were harmonized for all member countries. True, bonds issued by the lower-rated countries carried higher interest rates than those of higher-rated countries within the eurozone, but the differences narrowed from 2001 through 2009 in response to a vast increase in market liquidity.

As with the subprime crisis that was anchored in the easy-money policy of the US Federal Reserve and currency intervention by the Chinese government, Europe's burgeoning sovereign crisis is firmly rooted in the widening liquidity of the period that went unchecked as the European Central Bank (ECB) attempted to keep policy relatively loose to accommodate the interests of an economic slowdown in Europe's major exporters since the 2001-02 US economic slowdown.

The easy-money policy allowed countries with higher intrinsic inflation, such as Spain, Ireland and Greece, to benefit from negative interest rates: the best recipe for creating an asset bubble.

This week, Germany's best-selling magazine, Der Spiegel, on February 9 (in its English translation) carried an extensive article on the travails of the euro:
The problems facing Greece are just the beginning. The countries belonging to Europe's common currency zone are drifting further and further apart, and national bankruptcies are a distinct possibility. Brussels is faced with a number of choices, none of them good.

... Brussels took a hard line with Athens last week. Greece must cut costs drastically under close European Union supervision, a sacrifice of a share of its sovereignty. Risk premiums for Greek government bonds have risen drastically, and the country has to pay higher and higher charges.

... Accruing debt is becoming increasingly expensive for other countries in the euro zone as well, among them Portugal and Spain. The southern members of the euro zone are especially being eyed with mistrust. Speculators are betting that bonds will continue to fall and that, eventually, the countries won't be able to borrow any more money at all. State bankruptcies are seen as a possibility.

... EU officials are watching with alarm as the various euro-zone countries' competitiveness diverges sharply. The differences are especially large between countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, which are characterized by current account surpluses, and countries with high budget deficits. Along with Greece, this second category includes especially Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

These countries' competitiveness has dropped steadily since the euro was introduced. They lived on credit for years, seduced by the unusually low interest rates within the euro zone, and imported far more than they exported.

When demand collapsed in the wake of the global financial crisis, governments jumped in to fill the gap, with serious consequences - debt skyrocketed. Spain's budget deficit was at 11 percent last year, while Greece's was nearly 13 percent. Such high debt is simply not sustainable in the long term.

In the past, the solution for these countries would have been to devalue their currency, which in turn would make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. Such a move would stimulate their national economies and strengthen their competitiveness.

Now, however, these countries must submit to a drastic therapy regime at the hands of the European Commission. They need to balance their budgets, while simultaneously creating more competition on the labor and goods markets.

The directives from Brussels translate into difficult sacrifices for the citizens of the affected countries. Employees will have to scale back wage demands for years, and civil servants will see their salaries cut. Ireland has already embarked on this path; Greece and Spain will follow.

... Back in the fall of 2004, Eurostat, the EU body in charge of statistics, calculated that Greece's officially announced debts of between 1.4 percent and 2.0 percent of gross domestic product between 2000 and 2003 were incorrect. In reality, the amount was nearly three times as high, falling between 3.7 percent and 4.6 percent. The statisticians surmised that Athens had whitewashed its finances in previous years, too. Greece, in fact, would never have met the conditions for membership in the common currency without such trickery.

But the country was not immediately banned from the euro zone, nor were other sanctions imposed. Instead, member countries discussed how the statistics could be improved and made more accurate. Not much emerged from all the talk.

Outgoing European Commissioner for Enterprise and Industry Gunter Verheugen remembers all too well that, for a long time, the problem with Greece was simply not something that was talked about. He finds it hard to believe that this "disproportionate regard" for Greece had nothing to do with that fact that conservative allies of European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso governed in Athens for five years.

Not until last fall's elections brought Greece's socialist opposition to power did new data arrive from Athens - and new questions and accusations from Brussels.

Continued 1 2  


Euro trash? (Feb 12, '10)

Things fall apart in eurozone
(Jan 14, '10)

Why nations die (Aug 16, '05)


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(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Feb 11, 2010)

 
 


 

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