The liar's punishment is not in the least that he is not
believed but that he cannot believe anyone else. - George Bernard Shaw
Events like those of the past week remind one of the fundamental issues of
trust and confidence that have, since the beginning of 2007, bedeviled the
markets so much that it may yet turn out in history for this current financial
crisis to be called the "Liars' Downturn". But that would be getting well ahead
of the story. For now, it would be apposite to consider a few of the recent
stories that made me guffaw into my cornflakes.
Greeks bearing gifts
Barely a couple of weeks after writing
Oedipus wrecks (Asia Times Online, February 13, 2010) and
The blame game (Asia Times Online, March 6, 2010), I am forced to
regurgitate the Greek story, due to the most recent developments that move
distinctly from the "news" category firmly into the "entertainment" mode of
things. Here is a sample of headlines on the Greek debt crisis over the past
few days:
1. Berlin shifts stance on IMF role in Greece: Senior German
official says Fund support a possibility 2. Papandreou prefers European solution: 'We are part of the
eurozone and I want to show the world Europe can act together in a co-ordinated
way'
3. Greece Woes Weigh on European Stocks: Both the euro and stocks
drifted lower on Thursday on concern of a resurgent crisis in Greece 4. Protests in Greece turn violent 5. S&P Affirms Greece Ratings 6. Governing coalition collapses in Latvia: Largest party pulls
out of the center-right coalition over disagreements on how to handle the
country's recession - the deepest in Europe
All this is a bit troublesome for Greece, and more importantly, about the
deeply unstable operations of the European Union. It isn't much of an article
of faith that the Germans would much rather have the International Monetary
Fund supervise the Greeks implementing an austerity plan than trust the
generally toothless European Commission or the derelict European Central Bank
to do the same.
The Germans have enacted more than one or two camouflage maneuvers in their
financial system (remember those "highly-capitalized" Landesbanks?), and
probably recognized a kindred spirit in the Greek government and its efforts to
hide a bunch of fibs in the annual debt figures. Ergo, it made a lot of sense
not to have one of "their" own people look over the Greeks when any austerity
measure was to be implemented. Enter the IMF.
The French have been opposed to any IMF role in Greece not so much because of
any putative notions of European unity being compromised by an external body
but due to a simple happenstance of personalities. Namely that the head of the
IMF, one Dominique Strauss-Kahn, is billed as the most likely opponent of the
increasingly unpopular French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the upcoming French
presidential elections. The easiest way in politics to get rid of an opponent
is not to have one in the first place.
Why did this drama erupt this week? The reason most often cited is the European
Union meeting in which a bailout for Greece may be agreed next week. This has
prompted all manner of brinkmanship by the various constituents in the
negotiations. The other side of this is the little detail of the billions
needed by Greece in the April-May period for borrowing. Without a deal in place
that could help support about 30 billion euro (US$41 billion) in issuance at
the very least, there is widespread fear that buyers will desert Greece and
push up bond yields not just for the country but also for all of Europe.
Lehman lied. Really?
Eerily setting a parallel for the pack of lies that are being bandied about as
official statistics of Greece comes news of the widely circulated report on the
Lehman collapse, by the US court-appointed Special Examiner, Anton Valukas.
Summarizing a 2,200-page report is arguably outside the scope of this article.
Hence, the easy way out is to selectively quote the work done by other authors
on the subject: Select paragraphs from Yves Smith of the wonderful
nakedcapitalism.com blog (since re-quoted by another blogger,
normxxx.blogspot.com):
Quite a few observers ... have been stunned and
frustrated at the refusal to investigate what was almost certain accounting
fraud at Lehman ... The unraveling isn't merely implicating [Lehman chief
executive officer Richard] Fuld and his recent succession of CFOs, or its
accounting firm, Ernst & Young, as might be expected. It also emerges that
the NY Fed, and thus [formerly New York Federal Reserve president, now US
Treasury Secretary] Timothy Geithner, were at a minimum massively derelict in
the performance of their duties, and may well be culpable in aiding and
abetting Lehman in accounting fraud and Sarbox [Sarbanes-Oxley Act, covering
public company accounting regulations] violations ...
We need to demand an immediate release of the e-mails, phone records, and
meeting notes from the NY Fed and key Lehman principals regarding the NY Fed's
review of Lehman's solvency. If, as things appear now, Lehman was allowed by
the Fed's inaction to remain in business, when the Fed should have insisted on
a wind-down …..
... at a minimum, the NY Fed helped perpetuate a fraud on investors and
counterparties. This pattern further suggests the Fed, which by its charter is
tasked to promote the safety and soundness of the banking system, instead, via
its collusion with Lehman management, operated to protect particular actors to
the detriment of the public at large.
And most important, it says that the NY Fed, and likely Geithner himself,
undermined, perhaps even violated, laws designed to protect investors and
markets. If so, he is not fit to be Treasury secretary or hold any office
related to financial supervision and should resign immediately.
And here is the bit that goes back to the title of this article, namely what
happens when those who lie are also the ones in charge. Again, from the above
mentioned two sites:
The Examiner [that's Valukas] questioned Lehman
executives and other witnesses about Lehman's financial health and reporting,
[and] a recurrent theme in their responses was that Lehman gave full and
complete financial information to Government agencies, and that the Government
never raised significant objections or directed that Lehman take any corrective
action.
So get this: even though Lehman dressed up its accounts for the great unwashed
public, it did not try to fool the authorities. Its games playing was in full
view to those charted with protecting investors and the financial system.
So what transpired? The SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] (which has
never had much expertise in credit markets - a major regulatory problem) handed
assessing Lehman over to the Fed, which bent over backwards to give it a clean
bill of health.
There was a time when a statement such as the
one above would have filled anyone connected with financial markets with a
degree of dread and disgust that seems virtually unimaginable today, when the
regulators appear to have almost as many issues telling the truth as the people
they are putatively responsible for supervising.
Andrew Ross Serkin, writing for the New York Times on March 15, is even more
direct in his commentary titled "At Lehman, Watchdogs Saw It All":
Indeed,
it now appears that the federal government itself either didn't appreciate the
significance of what it saw (we've seen that movie before with regulators
waving off tips about Bernard L Madoff). Or perhaps they did appreciate the
significance and blessed the now-suspect accounting anyway.
Oddly, when the bankruptcy examiner asked Matthew Eichner of the SEC, who was
involved with supervising firms like Lehman, whether the agency focused on
leverage levels, he answered that "knowledge of the volumes of Repo 105
transactions would not have signaled to them ‘that something was terribly
wrong,' " according to the examiner's report. [Repo 105 is an accounting term
relating to transactions of the sort Lehman used to remove about US$50 billion
from its assets in 2008.]
There's a lot riding on the government's oversight of these accounting
shenanigans. If Lehman Brothers executives are sued civilly or prosecuted
criminally, they may actually have a powerful defense: a raft of government
officials from the SEC and Fed vetted virtually everything they did.
On top of that, Lehman's outside auditor, Ernst & Young, and a law firm,
Linklaters, signed off on the transactions. The problems at Lehman raise even
larger questions about the vigilance of the SEC and Fed in overseeing the other
Wall Street banks as well.
Perhaps tellingly, there is no evidence that Lehman kept two sets of books or
somehow tried to hide what it was doing from regulators. The bankruptcy
examiner spent over a year searching through virtually every e-mail message at
the firm and didn't say he found any evidence of a cover-up.
That may explain why so few at the firm seemed to think that what they were
doing was wrong, based on the e-mail traffic reviewed by the examiner. They
talked openly about Repo 105. And while some apparently felt queasy about it,
they also repeatedly said that it was legal.
This is
jaw-dropping stuff. Not only did the regulators of Lehman actually know about
its accounting shenanigans, they may have actually blessed them in order to
sort out a "smooth" sale. This also explains why US regulators may not have
been overly keen for an American buyer of Lehman to emerge, but instead pinned
all their hopes on Barclays, a bank from the United Kingdom.
Perhaps unfortunately for those playing this high-stakes game of "Liar Liar",
the other side of the party were the British, who had just uncovered a whole
bunch of other jiggery-pokery at their domestic banks, such as Northern Rock
and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). For them, perhaps, the Lehman package smelled
of something they would be doing themselves if ever the likes of RBS needed to
be sold. It is at this juncture that the UK government expressed "concern"
about a Barclays takeover of Lehman Brothers that in turn allowed the firm to
go bust.
Export route to growth
Have the lies stopped? Not by a long march, they haven't. As I look around at
the factors that allegedly "explain" rising valuations for stocks around the
world, the one explanation that keeps cropping up is "rising demand from Asia".
Fair enough, I say; demand from Asia is indeed rising, but it isn't likely to
explain the rosy projections being made by everyone ranging from shoe
manufacturers to those making earth-moving equipment for their GLOBAL sales.
Then you look around and you find that the primary factor that argues for
rising economic growth around the world is - EXPORTS. That's the same story in
all the following economic areas:
a. The United States: indeed, President Barack Obama has an
explicit target of doubling the country's exports in the next few years. b. Europe: forecasts for European growth have been lifted because
of the recent weakness of the euro, which "experts" believe will help the
continent to increase its exports. c. China: the government hopes to reduce its infrastructure
spending and cool down property speculation, expecting rising exports to pick
up the slack. d. Japan: same story, with the government having to cut down on
its spending as debt worries increase and instead leave the onus of economic
growth to - you guessed it - exports. e. Various other countries ranging from Russia to Brazil have
seen their forecasts for economic growth rise on the back of rising exports
that are expected to continue all through this year. f. Rising oil prices have fueled hopes that Middle Eastern
economies will benefit from rising exports of fuel, thereby propelling economic
growth.
You know something is wrong when over three-quarters of the world's economies
(by size if not number) expect to grow by exporting their way out of a
recession. That number is, simply, arithmetically impossible. Yet, stock
markets have continued their meteoric rise on the hopes of precisely this
eventuality coming through.
Conclusion
If I were an adviser on investment planning, here would be my favorite trades
today (note for readers: it is extremely dangerous to follow the advice of
someone you know well, and much more so when you try to follow the advice of a
pseudonymous author writing for an online publication, ie me. Take your
independent advice in attempting to follow any of these ideas through):
1. Get rid of government bonds issued by Group of Seven countries
and in particular anything that you own in the US, UK and Japan.
2. Sell pretty much all your stocks across all sectors, except
those offering services to the unhealthy and the dead.
3. Distribute your bank balances across as many banks as
possible.
4. Buy (directly) any local businesses that you actually
understand - for example, your local baker - but do so without any leverage and
only as long as "working capital" needs are minimal.
5. Buy as much physical gold, platinum and silver as you can
safely store.
6. Stop watching financial news channels except as
"entertainment".
7. Sit back and consider if perhaps all of the above trades could
be lies too (after all, I show above a complete lack of trust in everyone else
... )
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