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     Apr 23, 2010
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THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK, Part 4
Fed's double-edged rescue

This is the fourth article in a series.
Part 1: The crisis of wealth destruction
Part 2: Banks in crisis: 1929 and 2007
Part 3: The Fed's no-exit strategy


During the financial crisis that started in late 2007, the US Federal Reserve resorted to extraordinary meta-monetary measures. On March 11, 2008, the Fed announced an expansion of its securities lending program and arranged the Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF) to provide secured loans collateralized with Treasury securities to the 18 primary dealers for 28-day terms.

On the same day, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) authorized increases in its existing temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). These arrangements would

 

now provide dollars in amounts of up to US$30 billion and $6 billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively, representing increases of $10 billion and $2 billion. The FOMC extended the term of these swap lines through September 30, 2008

Under this new TSLF, the Fed would lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days (rather than overnight, as in the existing program) by a pledge of other securities, including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS. The TSLF was intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally. As was the case with the then current securities lending program, securities would be made available through an auction process. Auctions were held on a weekly basis, beginning on March 27, 2008. The Fed consulted with primary dealers on technical design features of the TSLF to fit their funding needs.

TSLF was a weekly loan facility that promoted liquidity in Treasury and other supposedly high-rated collateral markets and thus fostered the functioning of financial markets more generally. The program offered Treasury securities held by the System Open Market Account (SOMA) for loan over a one-month term against other program-eligible general collateral.

Yet the qualifying credit ratings of the acceptable collaterals were mostly based on mark-to-model, since primary dealers holding of high-rated collaterals mark-to-market had no need to borrow from TSLF. Securities loans were awarded to primary dealers based on a competitive single-price auction. Obviously, primary dealers in deepest stress would bid the highest single-price for loans.

The first TSLF auction was conducted on March 27, 2008. The TSLF was closed almost two years later on February 1, 2010, but the Fed said it may resume if market conditions warrant. By market conditions, the Fed meant when a gap again develops between mark-to-market values and mark-to-model values that creates distress for primary dealers. Thus TSLF was really a facility to support primary dealers on more than liquidity distress.

The SOMA Securities Lending program offers specific Treasury securities held by SOMA for loan against Treasury GC (general collateral repos) on an overnight basis. Dealers bid competitively in a multiple-price auction held every day at noon. The TSLF would offer Treasury GC held by SOMA for a 28-day term. Dealers would bid competitively in single-price auctions held weekly and borrowers would pledge program-eligible collateral.

In contrast to the Term Auction Facility (TAF), which offered term funding to depository institutions via a bi-weekly competitive auction, the TSLF offered Treasury GC to the New York Fed's primary dealers in exchange for other program-eligible collateral. The New York Fed term repo operations are designed to temporarily add reserves to the banking system via term repos with the primary dealers. These agreements are cash-for-bond agreements and have an impact on the aggregate level of reserves available in the banking system. The security-for-security lending of the TSLF, however, would have no impact on reserve levels since the loans were collateralized with other securities.

Primary Dealer Credit Facility
On March 16, 2008, invoking authority under the rarely used Section 13(3) of the 1932 Federal Reserve Act, the Fed established temporarily the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to provide allegedly fully secured overnight loans to primary dealers. Primary dealers are banks and securities brokerages that trade in US government securities with the Federal Reserve System. As of September 2008, there were 19 primary dealers. Daily average trading volume in US government securities by primary dealers was approximately $570 billion during 2007. PDCF was an overnight loan facility that provided funding to primary dealers in exchange for any tri-party-eligible collateral and was intended to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally.

PDCF differed from other Fed facilities in the following ways. The Term Auction Facility program offered term funding to depository institutions via a bi-weekly auction, for fixed amounts of credit. The Term Securities Lending Facility was an auction for a fixed amount of lending of Treasury general collateral in exchange for open market operations (OMO)-eligible and investment grade (AAA) corporate securities, municipal securities, mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities.

Fed credit advanced to the primary dealers under the PDCF increased the total amount of bank reserves in the financial system, in much the same way that discount window loans do. To offset this increase, the OMO desk utilized a number of tools, including, but not necessarily limited to, outright sales of Treasury securities, reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos), redemptions of Treasury securities and changes in the sizes of conventional reverse repo transactions.

But PDCF credit differed from discount window lending to depository institutions in a number of ways. The discount window primary credit facility offers overnight as well as term funding for up to 90 calendar days at the primary credit rate secured by discount window collateral to eligible depository institutions. The primary credit facility at the discount window, as revised by the Federal Reserve in 2003, offered credit to financially sound banks at a rate 100 basis points above the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate (the primary credit rate).

Primary credit was made available to depository institutions at an above-market rate but with very few administrative restrictions and no limits on the use of proceeds. Because the interest rate charged on primary credit was above the market price of funds, it replaced the rationing mechanism for obtaining funds from the central bank and eliminated the need for administrative review by the Federal Reserve.

Amid the onset of the liquidity crisis in August 2007, the Federal Reserve lowered the spread between the primary credit rate and the target funds rate from 100 basis points to 50 basis points and extended the maximum term of loans to 30 days.

In March 2008, the Fed once again narrowed the spread, this time to 25 basis points, and extended the loan term to 90 days. The moves were motivated by the desire to make discount window credit more accessible to depository institutions.

The Fed's actions led to an increase in the volume of discount window borrowing during the crisis. While the massive increase in the volume of borrowing supports the argument that the stigma of borrowing had been eliminated, one should be cautious when interpreting this result. Despite the expansion in borrowing, some trades in the funds market took place at rates above the primary credit rate.

Reluctance of banks to borrow from the Fed discount window has several components. The non-price mechanism is the component attributable to the Fed's implementation of discount lending. This component declined significantly after the establishment of the revised facility in 2003.

Meanwhile, a second type of stigma arises from the asymmetric information problems associated with discount window borrowing. Specifically, while most banks borrow from the discount window, the facility is also used by troubled or failing institutions. Because market participants cannot fully differentiate sound from troubled borrowers, they may view borrowing as a potential sign of weakness of any bank that visits the discount window. If this type of stigma increases at the early stages of a financial crisis, when institutions are trying to signal their good health, it could explain the spikes in the funds rate over the primary credit rate. In addition, it is plausible that the capital crunch during the financial crisis left some institutions without sufficient collateral to apply for primary credit loans and thus forced them to bid for higher rates in the federal funds market, which is un-securitized.

The PDCF, by contrast, was an overnight facility available to primary dealers (rather than depository institutions). PDCF expired on February 1, 2010.

Since not all primary dealers are depository institutions, the Fed, to provide credit assistance to them, had to invoke authority under Section 13(3) of the 1932 Federal Reserve Act, as amended by the Banking Act of 1935 and the FDIC Improvement Act of 1991, which permits the Fed to lend to any individual, partnership, or corporation "in unusual and exigent circumstances if the borrower is "unable to secure adequate credit accommodations from other banking institutions".

Section 13(3) was enacted in 1932 out of concern that widespread bank failures would make it impossible for many firms to obtain loans, thus depressing the economy. In the four years after the section was added, the Fed made a total of 123 loans totaling just $1.5 million. Section 13 (3) was not used again until 2008, 76 years later.

In addition to applying Section 13(3) to PDCF, the Fed also invoked it to authorize the New York Fed to lend $29 billion to a newly created special limited liability corporation named Maiden Lane, LLC, to exclusively facilitate the Fed/Treasury-sponsored JPMorgan Chase acquisition of Bear Stearns, which faced imminent insolvency from bad investments in subprime mortgage securities extensively funded by overnight repos that were unable to rollover.

The PDCF and the Maiden Lane loan departed significantly from the Fed's normal practice of lending only to financial sound institutions against top-rated collaterals. The departure was again made when the NY Fed was granted authority to lend to mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to supplement the Treasury's moves to stabilize these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). As it turned out, the Treasury had to place both GSEs under conservatorship in September 2008.

Nevertheless, a brave new world of central banking began with these new authorities by the Fed to make unconventional loans against toxic assets. Besides TARP programs, mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have received more than $125 billion in federal aid. There is no indication that either firm will be able to repay the government anytime soon, if ever.

In March 2008, JPMorgan Chase had been provided with a $29 billion credit line from the Fed discount window in its purchase of Bear Stearns arranged by the Treasury. In early September, the Treasury seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a $200 billion capital injection against a $4.5 trillion liability, concurrent with another government arranged "shotgun marriage" that induced Bank of America to acquire Merrill Lynch at a fire sale price of $50 billion.

The Henry Paulson-led Treasury had been criticized and had become sensitive to criticism of bailing out private Wall Street firms that should have been allowed to fail from irresponsible market misjudgments, and Treasury secretary Paulson was eager to show that going forward it was not government policy to increase moral hazard.

Lehman bankruptcy
Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy filing on September 15, 2008, was the result of failure of the coordinated efforts by the Ben Bernanke Fed and the Paulson Treasury to find a qualified buyer for the failing firm. At the end, the refusal of the Bank of England to approve the participation of Barclays was a bridge too far in a desperate campaign to save Lehman. Secretary Paulson, sensitive to criticism that he helped to distort markets by bailing out Merrill Lynch, resisted pressure to rescue Lehman. Alan Meltzer, professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University and the respected author of A History of the Federal Reserve, argued that allowing Lehman to fail was "a major error that deepened and lengthen the current recession".

Fed chairman Bernanke, while defending the Fed's inaction by citing a technical legal restraint on Fed lending without adequate collateral, which Lehman did not have in relation to its funding needs, admitted on public television afterwards that "Lehman proved that you cannot let a large internationally active firm fail in the middle of a financial crisis".

He might as well have added you also cannot bailout a large internationally active firm without long-term effects on market operations with penalties for the economy. By now, it is becoming clear that the difference between government bailouts and no-bailouts is not different levels of economic pain, but how the pain will be borne over time and by whom - those who were responsible for the crisis, or innocent taxpayers. Once those responsible for the crisis are allowed to escape with no penalty, no reform can prevent replays of the crisis.

Within hours of the Lehman bankruptcy filing, the Fed was confronted with the imminent failure of the American International Group (AIG) from exposure to the failure of the subprime mortgage market through its underwriting of credit default swaps insurance and other derivative contracts and portfolio holdings of mortgage-backed securities. All concerns of moral hazard went out the window as the Fed and Treasury panicked and opened the door to save dysfunctional market capitalism by replacing it with state capitalism. The pain was relieved by putting the patient in a coma.

AIG bailout
Determining that AIG was too big to fail, the Federal Reserve Board on September 16 announced that "in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance", to justify invoking Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to make an $85 billion loan to AIG, secured by the assets of AIG and its subsidiaries.

In the course of two days, the Fed took different approaches in dealing with imminent failure of two major institutions, neither of which was a depository institution and therefore not qualified for funding support through the Fed's normal lending programs.

Continued 1 2 3 4 


The Complete Henry C K Liu

 

 
 


 

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