Gold vs Treasuries - which to believe?
By Michael Pento
Any psychoanalyst looking at the behavior of investors today would see clear
strains of schizophrenia in a comparison between the markets for gold and US
The 10-year Treasury yield is setting new lows on a daily basis. In the
financial models all economists were taught at school, this would be an
indication of an economy with low inflation expectations and a strong currency.
But the dollar has fallen over 12% since June, and the price of gold continues
to hit all-time highs. These results are completely antithetical. Bonds are
flashing a warning sign of deflation, while gold and the dollar presage
During the last period in which the US experienced significant
economic stress, the late '70s and early '80s, the markets in gold and
Treasuries showed a much higher degree of harmony. At that time, the Fed's
extreme depression of interest rates led to rapidly rising inflation, a
weakening dollar, and a spike in the gold price. More significantly, yields on
Treasuries soared as investors demanded higher rates as compensation for the
added inflation risk. In other words, everything made sense.
Beginning in January 1977, gold began an epic bull market which ended just
prior to February 1980. In that time, the metal soared from $135 per ounce to
just under $860 per ounce, and the Dollar Index lost about 20% of its value.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury soared from 7.2% in January of 1977 to 12.4% in
February of 1980. This occurred in an environment where the Federal Reserve -
under Arthur Burns - pursued an inflationary monetary policy. He increased the
monetary base to $114 billion from $62 billion in just eight years.
Today, the environment is similar to what the country confronted 30 years ago.
Like then, our monetary base has surged - but this time even faster. Instead of
merely doubling in eight years as it did under Burns' watch, former Federal
Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and his successor, Ben Bernanke, have tripled
the base in 12 years (to over $2 trillion today from $621 billion in 2000).
Accordingly, the dollar price of gold has more than quadrupled, from $280 per
ounce in 2000 to over $1,300 today. Over that time, the dollar has registered a
35% drop in value. However, in stark contrast to 1980, the yield on the 10-year
Treasury note has collapsed from 6.6% in 2000 to less than 2.4% today.
A nation should only be able to enjoy ultra-low interest rates if it has a high
savings rate, stable monetary policy, low inflation, and very low levels of
debt. The US savings rate, which had been range-bound between 7.5% and 15%
during the '60s and '70s, now stands at just 5.8%. And that rate reflects
recent belt-tightening in the wake of the credit crunch. The personal savings
rate had been negligible and sometimes negative from 1998 through 2008.
Washington's current annual budget deficit is 9% of gross domestic product
(GDP) and the national debt is 93% of GDP. And, of course, the Fed has - in its
own words - undertaken "unconventional measures" to push up inflation.
Therefore, none of the conditions that should engender low interest rates
Clearly both gold and the US dollar agree that Bernanke will be victorious in
his quest to foment robust inflation. But Treasury investors seem to believe
that despite its current inflationary disposition, the Fed will be able either
to: a) hold down interest rates for an extended period; or b) withdraw its
liquidity before things get out of hand. To take this position, one would not
only have to believe that the forex and gold markets have it wrong, but also
think that the Fed's printing press will lose its power to depreciate the
currency. This is a seriously misguided set of assumptions.
Bernanke asserts that the Fed brought on the Great Depression by allowing the
money supply to contract by 30% after the Crash of 1929. He has also written
that the depression relapse of 1937 stemmed from Washington's attempt to
balance the budget and raise interest rates. Therefore, I can reasonably assume
that he will not stop the presses until inflation has a firm and undeniable
grip on the American economy.
Many believe that "Helicopter Ben" has yet to ignite inflation on the ground
because the money he dropped from the sky is still stuck in the trees. In other
words, the funds are caught in the banking system and not spreading among the
populace. Yet, the M1 money supply measure is up 6.2% year on year; and, in the
past two months, the compounded annual rate of change in the broader M2 is
7.4%. Although these single-digit increases do not yet indicate runaway
inflation, a program of relentless quantitative easing has a conclusion as
predictable as driving 100mph around an icy mountain turn. Since the Fed
chairman has shown no will to hit the brakes, you'd have to be mad to ride the
yield curve alongside him.
Michael Pento is senior economist and vice president of Managed Products,
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