WRITE for ATol ADVERTISE MEDIA KIT GET ATol BY EMAIL ABOUT ATol CONTACT US
Asia Time Online - Daily News
             
Asia Times Chinese
AT Chinese



     
     Apr 1, 2011


Page 2 of 4
AY, PROFIT AND GROWTH, Part 9
Low wages take their toll
By Henry C K Liu

This is the ninth article in a series.
Part 1: Stagnant wages leading to overcapacity
Part 2: Gold shows its true metal
Part 3: Labor markets delinked from gold
Part 4: Central banks and gold
Part 5: Central banks and gold liquidity
Part 6: The London gold market
Part 7:Political response to weak regulation
Part 8:Gold and fiat currencies

It negates the court's ruling on Pollock vs the Farmers' Loan & Trust Company, which declared the income tax in the Wilson-Gorman Acts unconstitutional because it was a direct tax that

 
required apportionment among the states.

The Sixteenth Amendment, ratified on February 25, 1913, preceded by only six months the Seventeenth Amendment adopted on April 8, 1913, which established direct election of US Senators by direct popular vote. The Seventeenth Amendment superseded article I, ง 3, clauses 1 and 2 of the constitution, under which senators were elected indirectly by elected officials in state legislatures. It also altered the procedure for filling vacancies in the senate, to be consistent with the method of election. It also preceded the Nineteenth Amendment, rectified on August 26, 1920, which gave women the right to vote.

The Sixteen Amendment exempted income taxes from the constitutional requirements with regard to direct taxes, after income taxes on rents, dividends, and interest were ruled by the Supreme Court to be direct taxes in Pollock v Farmers' Loan & Trust Co (1895) that must be apportioned among the states.

A regime of central banking was also adopted with the establishment of the Federal Reserve System when congress passed the 1913 Federal Reserve Act (ch. 6, 38 Stat. 251, enacted December 23, 1913)

Blaming Smoot-Hawley for the Great Depression
In response to dismal economic conditions in the Great Depression following the stock market crash of 1929, congress escalated its long-standing trade protectionist policies, culminating in the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, which was a basket of various increased tariffs to protect many fragile industries in the US economy in a severe depression, that was signed into law on June 17, 1930 by president Herbert Hoover. Two years later, Hoover, a conservative Republican, lost the1932 presidential election to Franklin Roosevelt, liberal Democrat governor of New York.

Until the current financial crisis that started in mid-2007, it had been conventional neo-liberal wisdom to blame the Smoot-Hawley Act as having deepened the Great Depression. Yet Smooth-Hawley was signed into law only on June 17, 1930, almost a year after the stock market crash on October 24, 1929. It is not possible for an event to trigger retrospectively other events that have taken place before it.

Further, imports during 1929 were only 4.2% of the US GNP (gross national product) and exports only 5.0%, with the US enjoying a trade surplus equaling to 0.8% of its GNP. Two-way total foreign trade amounted to only 9.2% of GNP. Before 1991, the US used GNP as its primary measure of total economic activity. After that, it began to use gross domestic product (GDP).
GNP contrasts with GDP in that while GNP measures the output generated by a country's enterprises - whether physically located domestically or abroad, GDP measures the total output produced within a country's borders - whether produced by that country's own firms or not. Since globalization, many developing economies that sought development through exporting economies have become statistical boom towns while in reality are trapped in poverty by exporting low-wage production financed by foreign capital.

Even with a US trade deficit of $647 billion in 2010 that amounted to 2.9% of its GDP of $14.87 trillion, US GNP of $15.2 trillion was still greater than US GDP by $330 billion. For 2006, when the trade deficit was at $840 billion, US GNP was $13.8 trillion, still larger than US GDP of $13.6 by $200 billion.

In 2006, some six months before the current financial crisis first exploded in July 2007, US import was 18% of GDP and export was 13%, with a trade deficit amounting to 5% of GDP. Foreign trade still amounted to only 31% of US GDP.

In 2006, China's import was 31% of GDP and export was 39% of GDP, yielding a trade surplus of 8% of GDP. Foreign trade accounted for 70% of Chinese GDP. China imported a larger percentage of its GDP than the US did in 2006. Foreign trade was twice as important to the Chinese economy as it was to the US economy in 2006. China has since adopted a plan to reduce the percentage of GDP devoted to foreign trade by trying to stimulate growth in the domestic sector faster than that in the export sector.
US foreign trade being less than 10% of its GNP in 1929 was cited by monetarist Milton Friedman as evidence for the reason he dismissed the alleged critical role of Smoot-Hawley played on the other 90% of the US economy that was not related to foreign trade. Instead, Friedman pointed to the critical role played by the failure of Federal Reserve monetary policy to provide needed liquidity to a stagnant market, as the main cause of the depression. For seven decades, Friedman's assertion was held as valid by mainstream economics until 2008, when the Alan Greenspan Fed's repeated administration of monetary easing at the first sign of any economic slowdown over an 18- year period merely built toward an accumulative crisis that exploded in mid-2007.

Since then, while the first Fed quantitative easing (QE1) of $1.7 trillion that ended in March 2010 arguably prevented a total meltdown of the financial markets, QE2 in the amount of $600 billion administered through June 2011 so far has failed to jump start any recovery from a seriously impaired economy. There is still talk of more quantitative being needed even after a total of $2.1 trillion had been committed.

The Fed has kept the benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008 against an inflation rate of above 2%, going on 30 months, which is too long a time for negative interest rates for any economy to sustain without commensurate inflationary penalty down the road. In addition, the Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to a record $2.8 trillion, with no visible strategy on an orderly exit from the market and unwinding of toxic assets held that would not cause serious market turmoil.

Even then, Friedman's assertion was only a myth that was at best half right - only on the monetary part. Friedman failed to acknowledge the role low wages played in the growth of the debt bubble in the Roaring Twenties and the long-term unemployment caused by the bubble's bursting that put the world economy in a spiral of supply/demand imbalance. The depression was then prolonged by intractable demand deficiency resulting from prolonged high unemployment and declining wages.

It was ironic that Friedman did not learn from his teacher, Jacob Viner, who, as the leading faculty member in the Economics Department at the University of Chicago, identified "unbalanced deflation", in which both asset prices and wages declined while nominal debt levels remain constant, as the prime cause of the Great Depression. Without lessons of history on the danger of deficient wages being acknowledged, the same chain of events seven decades later was allowed to again cause the current depression that started in 2008.

On the economics of nuclear war-making, Viner spoke at the Conference on Atomic Energy Control in 1945, saying "that the atomic bomb was the cheapest way yet devised of killing human beings" and that the destructive characteristics of nuclear bombs "will be peacemaking in effect". For this testimony, Viner is sometimes viewed as the founder of nuclear deterrence later developed into the Cold War doctrine of mutual massive assured destruction (MAD) as a stabilizing deterrent of nuclear war by Herman Khan in his book: On Thermal Nuclear War. (See War and the military-industrial complex, Asia Times Online, January 31, 2003.)

In reality, Smoot-Hawley's high protectionist tariffs actually prevented wages from declining further through cross-border wage arbitrage during the 1930s Great Depression, which seven decades later became a main cause of demand deficiency that caused the current economic crisis that first manifested itself as a financial crisis in 2007.

Unlike during the age of industrial imperialism when mercantilist trade raised domestic wages in the imperialist economies such as Britain's and Germany's before World War II, global international trade in the neo-liberal era in the 21st century acts to depress wages in all economies through cross-border wage arbitrage to create a downward spiral of wages worldwide, in a race to the bottom on consumer demand that needs to be compensated through massive consumer debt in the form of subprime mortgages that were supported only by rising home prices rather than rising wages.

Fed's QE cash goes to wrong recipients
In the 1930s, companies had to close their doors and lay off workers because those workers did not have enough money to buy the products they produced. The resultant high unemployment rate shrank consumer demand further to cause more companies to close and to layoff still more workers to depress demand further in a downward spiral. This chain of events seem to be repeating itself seven decades later in an economy gravely impaired by the current global financial crisis that began in the US in 2007. This is because management has not learned from history that taking money from wages to increase return on capital is a self-defeating dead-end in a market economy.

Furthermore, in the current financial crisis, the solution adopted by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is to create money ex nihilo (out of nothing) to buy toxic debt from insolvent financial institutions, and lending these walking-dead financial institutions newly created money that the tax-paying public would have to pay back with future taxes, merely to create an illusion of profit for these financially distressed institutions, while management continues to lay off more workers.

Hamilton's protectionism saves US from British imperialism
While liberal economic theory after World War II mistakenly asserted that intensified protectionist trade policies had worsened the Great Depression, the adherents of this theory, in their eagerness to promote global trade liberalization in the 1990s, have chosen to ignore the historical fact that the US economy in the new nation's early decades had benefited greatly from the protectionist trade policies of Alexander Hamilton against British trade imperialism for most of its history until the two World Wars in the 20th century made the US the leading economic power to benefit from low tariffs and open trade worldwide.

Continued 1 2 3

 

 

 
 


 

All material on this website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written permission.
© Copyright 1999 - 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings), Ltd.
Head Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East, Central, Hong Kong
Thailand Bureau: 11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110