We seek him here, we seek him there,
Those Frenchies seek him everywhere. Is he
in heaven? - Is he in hell? That demmed,
elusive Pimpernel. - Baroness Orczy's
The Scarlet Pimpernel
After yet
another tumultuous period in the political arena
over the past few weeks, what do we define as the
biggest trend that is likely to affect the
planet's political climate over the next few
months? We have a number of choices:
The corruption scandal in China involving Bo
Xilai; and its aftermath.
Nicholas Sarkozy losing to the
multi-millionaire Francois Hollande of the
Socialist Party.
Anarchy in Greece.
Anti-government protests in Portugal, Spain
and elsewhere in
Europe.
The strong anti-austerity vote across the
United Kingdom in the council elections last week.
Chancellor Merkel's conservatives battered in
yet another state (North Rhine-Westphalia) on
Sunday.
Boris Johnson's victory in the London mayoral
elections last week.
The impact of these
events is difficult to evaluate in the best of
times; with the charged global environment of
political changes in both the United States and
China this year, such shifts could signal
something murkier for global politics; and all
that even before we try to factor in the potential
curve-balls in the form of Russian politics, the
Iran-Israel nuclear issue, further chaos in Syria
and Bahrain among other issues.
Perhaps
the first thing to do would be to remove some
items from the list that have received excessive
media coverage against their potential
significance. Remember here that these are my
opinions based on facts available as of Sunday May
13:
Bo Xilai: we will perhaps never
really know the circumstances around the case
involving former Commuinst Party rising star Bo
and his wife; much less the political machinations
that were excited by Bo's attempts to control
property speculation in his province of Chongqing.
All that said, the key "macro" question is
to consider how many countries have not had
leadership scandals in their ascent to power: do
we want to discuss the number of upheavals in
American and British politics before World War II
and since; the major corruption scandals involving
Japanese politicians and government officials over
the past 40 years and so on? Seen in that light,
the Chinese scandal around the deposed Bo barely
passes muster as an event that could change the
trajectory of global politics.
Anti-government protests in European
countries: what do you get in places with
high unemployment, generous social benefits and
weather turning warmer now that we are well into
spring? Young people who want to get out of their
homes and have a bit of fun, that's what. It might
seem like a trivialization of what is going on in
Portugal and Spain, but that view is also probably
closer to the truth than what the breathless media
coverage on the topic would have you believe.
Losses suffered by ruling conservatives
in both the United Kingdom and Germany:
Quite similarly, I would minimize their political
importance. In general, anti-incumbency tends to
increase during periods of political and economic
turmoil and these elections appear no different.
Voter apathy in the form of low turnout in
the case of the UK also appears to have played a
part in the poor results for the incumbent
Conservatives - it is more likely that the people
who bother to go out and vote are driven by
anger/need to change than that they are driven by
an urge to maintain the status quo thereby making
changes of political parties more likely in those
situations. That leaves the French elections
as "Act no. 1". A number of commentators -
including on Asia Times Online - have projected
the French elections in the same light as
reversals for incumbents in the UK and Germany:
anti-austerity, pro-left and pro-Europe. This view
is completely wrong-headed in my opinion because
of the following:
Sarkozy was elected on a reform platform, and
over the past few years famously failed to deliver
on his promises. In the environment of a
broadening European crisis that brought a number
of countries to the brink (and elicited a
downgrade on the country's prized triple-A
rating), French people may have been angry to have
had a man in the Palace who failed to tell them
the truth much less do the right things: all the
gloom but without the actual forward motion to
show for it.
The Le Pen factor has been overlooked by many
a pundit. What was in effect an anti-European vote
(against immigration, against political
interference from Brussels and mostly against the
mollycoddling of bankers) has been misinterpreted
as a vote for the far right. In that respect, I
would compare Ms Le Pen to the Tea Party in the US
and various anti-European parties. In the second
round, the French appeared to have combined the
votes for Le Pen with those of Francois Hollande
on the basis that he was the more anti-European of
the two candidates left standing. In contrast if
they had voted purely on "right vs left" their
votes would have gone to Nicolas Sarkozy.
For all his faults, Sarkozy was an outsider to
the elitist world of French politics and business
where membership is dictated by one's university:
much like the Confucian systems of yore in China
where mandarins were selected by rigorous
examinations. In ditching him, the French have
gone back in favor of their own status quo -
Hollande is a card-carrying member of the Grand
Ecole mafia (his alma mater is the execrable Ecole
Nationale d'Administration or ENA) that runs
France.
In effect, the French have done a
very French thing; namely, to create a two-headed
monster in the form of Hollande. He is charged
with maintaining the status quo by creating enough
of a rupture with European leaders to help build
walls around France that would disallow inward
movements of immigrants; but also secondly to
attack the French elite by increasing income
taxes. That old joke about someone putting up a
wall around a country only for the neighbor to
request that it be completely filled with water
comes to mind.
All of which brings us to
the Greeks. With an imploding economy and the
grand fraud that was the European "rescue" of the
country a couple of months ago, Greece went to the
polls in an agitated state of mind. Sure enough,
as it happens with people who are too angry to be
cogent, they ended up delivering an extremely
confused verdict that was anti-incumbency in parts
(by disrobing the main political parties) but not
enough to actually grant a mandate to any other
platform. This was the "crazy" in democracy, a
political system the Greeks are reputed to have
invented.
With the government impasse and
patently anti-European statements from various
politicians in Greece, cries of a "Grexit" ie a
Greek Exit from the euro, have become shriller.
Like a divorce that is suddenly being fought on
the front pages from Wolfgang Munchau in the
Financial Times to the lead editorial of Der
Spiegel in Germany, this week opens with the great
and the good of the media calling for Greece to
voluntarily exit the European Union if not just
the common currency.
These views are silly
in the extreme; it was Greece's fault that they
were admitted into the European Union but rather
the political machinations in Berlin and Paris
that made expansionism an end unto itself. Like a
husband who has just discovered that his wife is
cheating on him with the milkman, media pundits
want to express outrage where none is due. That
Greece did not fit into the European political
model was obvious over 12 years ago; and a mere
sovereign default shouldn't change the country's
presence in the EU however embarrassing that may
be for folks.
For the sake of the Greeks
alone, I have argued an Icelandic solution: see (F)Ire
and Ice, Asia Times Online, Nov 20, 2010. They
cannot regain political control on their fortunes
when under the diktat of the Germans and the
French; hence Greece should strike out on its own
to establish a sustainable path back into growth.
The abject reality of course is that no one in
Greece wants that path either: what they want is
to remain inside Europe and keep milking the Union
for farming and fishing subsidies while allowing
all debt incurred inside the country to be
forgiven.
Last and final sale, closing
down sale etc, you understand.
Enter
the Pimpernel Into this charged political
climate comes the one bit of news that I believe
actually portends a more positive future for
Europe in general and the rich in particular. That
would be the re-election of Boris Johnson as mayor
of London in the face of a very significant
challenge mounted by Labour's Ken Livingstone.
London is one of the world's great
financial centers. It is also home to more
millionaires and billionaires than perhaps any
other European city (barring the folks who declare
one odd Swiss canton or the other as their primary
residence while actually living in London or New
York). It is also the setting for a modern day
retelling of the Charles Dickens classic A Tale
of Two Cities; or more aptly the Baroness
Orczy's louche hero, The Scarlet Pimpernel.
By voting back Johnson, it is clear that
Londoners have chosen someone who goes against the
European zeitgeist - a political leader who
is unafraid to champion the rights of rich people,
someone who is happy to pass on austerity even in
difficult times through fare, community rate hikes
on the one hand along with savage wage and
workforce cuts on the other.
Johnson has
been calling for cuts in the national income tax
rate for individuals and companies - his party,
the Conservatives duly obliged in their last
budget - that would disproportionately benefit
London against the rest of the UK economy.
Political strife in Greece and open season
on the elite in France may well play into
Johnson's hands now. Attracted by lower taxes,
excess infrastructure thanks to the upcoming
Summer Olympic Games and relative flexibility in
workforce employment such as the costs of firing
people, Europeans may well flock back to London.
That's even before the "negative"
attractions of Europe with its imploding currency,
anti-rich policies, obsolete social contracts and
a complete lack of market confidence which make
the process of doing business in Europe that much
more daunting are all taken into account.
Johnson with his characteristic blonde,
unruly mop of hair may well be the closest thing
to a political voice in Europe that can be
unafraid of stating the obvious facts, namely to
cut government spending, roll back Keynesian
policies and let the markets do their work. An
opportunity to be the modern day Pimpernel awaits
Johnson, if he so chooses.
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