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     Aug 7, 2012


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CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Wacky and wackier
Commentary and weekly watch by Doug Noland

Things get wackier by the week. My proposition has been that once a credit crisis comes to afflict the "core" (gravitating from the "periphery") the deleterious consequences tend to be irreversible. As such, with Spain now engulfed in full-fledged financial, economic, political and social crisis, the overall European debt crisis has turned interminable.

Of course, desperate politicians and central bankers promise to do whatever it takes to finally resolve the crisis. "Pointless to short the euro," European Central Bank president Mario Draghi warned on Thursday. Their determination is surely intensified by the fact that they are fighting for the very survival of euro monetary integration.

Policymakers and market participants alike appreciate what's at

 

stake. With global risk markets these days enveloped in an extraordinary "risk on, risk off" speculative melee, the historic battle to "save" the euro has come to dictate global trading dynamics. The European crisis is taking an increasing toll on the global economy, though the incredible measures to combat the bursting of the European credit bubble fuel an escalating speculative bubble throughout global risk markets.

Why does "core" affliction prove such a momentous crisis development? Importantly, the associated costs become enormous and, by definition, the number of parties with the wherewithal to finance a core country bailout turns quite limited.

While large, initial Greek bailouts costs were manageable when spread across euro zone partners and a robust ECB. The ultimate costs of bailing out Spain's banks, regional governments and the sovereign will be many hundreds of billions. And with "robust" a thing of the past, there are scant few places to spread huge prospective bailout expenses.

Italy is on the ropes and France is increasingly vulnerable. It is today essentially left to the Germans and the ECB to shoulder the burden of bailout responsibility. And only a small and increasingly isolated minority has an issue with gambling German creditworthiness and ECB credibility.

It's been my thesis that there would come a time when the Germans would begin to reevaluate. There are the age-old economic issues around "solvency versus illiquidity" to contend with - along with that fateful "throwing good money after bad" predicament. There is the issue of sacrificing one's creditworthiness for the profligacy and misdeeds of others. These issues can be downplayed or completely disregarded - they're just not going to go away.

At the end of the day, I don't expect the German people will be willing to shoulder the financial burdens of Spain and Italy. The Germans won't bury themselves and won't be blackmailed. And I don't expect the Bundesbank to completely turn over the keys to the European Central Bank printing press and vault to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology-trained Italian economist Mario Draghi. There are very deep philosophical differences. Think Grand Canyon.

The markets' Thursday-to-Friday depressive-manic response to Draghi was something to behold (being kind here). Reasons behind the about face were not immediately obvious. The Financial Times' sanguine view didn't hurt: "Far from moderating his forceful London remarks, Mr Draghi made clear that the ECB is ready to act to stop the disintegration of eurozone financial markets. In a significant step for the ECB's interpretation of its own role, he left no doubt that the central bank considers it 'squarely' within its mandate to counteract 'convertibility risk' - the market effect produced by doubts that the euro will survive intact. Mr Draghi, in combative mood, declared that the euro is here to stay: it is 'pointless' to bet against it - a big statement."

The FT editorial made its own big statement: "Investors ... should not underestimate the adroitness of Mr Draghi's political maneuver."

Candidly, I missed it when watching Draghi's press conference; few were thinking impressively adroit on Thursday. After the previous week's bluster, Draghi simply didn't have the goods. Moreover, he seemed content to dig a deeper hole for himself. Indeed, one was left assuming that his latest big bazooka idea wasn't about to pass muster with an increasingly alarmed Bundesbank. But that was Thursday thinking.

Capturing the much-improved Friday market mood - and the markets' imagination - was a big statement from an ECB policymaker: "There are 23 members in the council and if there will be a vote then everyone's vote has the same weight in the sense that some questions are solved by a majority." Rather bold for a new member of the ECB's rate setting committee from the Bank of Estonia to claim his bank's vote is as powerful as that from the esteemed Bundesbank.

Especially by week's end, markets were happy to disregard what I believe were telling comments from prominent Bundesbank officials - current and former. Otmar Issing penned a brilliant op-ed for Monday's Financial Times, "Europe's Political Union is Worthy of Satire". This was followed by "the Bundesbank celebrates its 55th birthday on 1 August and continues to stand for an exceptionally strong orientation to stability", with the Bundesbank's website highlighting an insightful interview with current Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and former (1991-1993) head Helmut Schlesinger. Considering the backdrop, I thought this interview was worthy of major excerpts.
Mr Weidmann: "...Despite all our various qualifications and tasks, within the Bank, there is a shared vision and a clear commitment to monetary stability. This is unique for such an institution and has also made the Bank an attractive option for people applying to work for us. The public good of maintaining price stability and thus contributing to the common good is a major incentive for many."

Mr Weidmann, how did you yourself see the Bundesbank, say, while you were at university?

Mr Weidmann: "In 1987 I was studying in France. The Banque de France was not yet independent at the time. That is when I first clearly saw the differences in outlook concerning the role of, and oversight over, the central bank. I myself had pretty much 'inhaled' the Bundesbank's role; my French student friends, however, could not possibly imagine a government institution performing a key sovereign task and still being outside parliamentary control. Two very different world views were colliding. They have continued to do so in all political debates - essentially, up to the present day."

Where can you identify this?

Mr Weidmann: "I recently gave an interview to the French daily newspaper 'Le Monde'. Many readers responded to the substantive positioning, some positively, some negatively. However, some responded along the lines of 'Why is he meddling in the political debate? He's only a central bank governor, a 'civil servant' who actually shouldn't be saying anything on the matter."

In 1990, the Bundesbank wrote that the participants in economic and monetary union would be inextricably linked to one another 'come what may' and that such a union would be an 'irrevocable joint and several community which, in the light of past experience, requires a more far-reaching association, in the form of a comprehensive political union, if it is to remain durable'.

Mr Weidmann: "The assessment at that time merely reflected the Bank's long-held position. As early as 1963, President Karl Blessing had stated that the introduction of monetary union should be conditional on political union. The Bank's stance has not only been consistent over time but has, in fact, taken on even greater relevance in a dramatic way owing to the recent crisis in the euro area."

Political union did not feature in the Maastricht Treaty at the end of 1991. How did the Central Bank Council react to this?

Mr Schlesinger: "When I took office as President of the Deutsche Bundesbank in the summer of 1991, Chancellor Helmut Kohl was still in favor of political union. However, the decision to implement monetary union by no later than 1999 was taken just four months later. This was a clear defeat for us. There is no other way of putting it. We had assumed that the Treaty would be concluded with a definition of the entry criteria, but without a fixed date being set."

Mr Weidmann: "It is interesting that we are having a similar discussion now in connection with the banking union. Here, too, some quarters are evidently seeking a far-reaching joint solution, but without imposing stricter rules on the other policy areas that are also affected. A genuine European banking supervision can indeed form a major component of closer integration within monetary union. However, such an institutional reorganization of banking supervision also has to be integrated - into a comprehensive reform of the supervisory regulatory framework and of the respective national scope for economic and fiscal policy. Otherwise, too great a burden will be placed on banking supervision."

What is crucial for political union is the willingness to hand over national sovereignty. Does such a willingness actually exist within the EU?

Mr Schlesinger: "This question always takes me back to the start of European unification. At that time, the main objective was quite a different one - namely, to ensure that there would never again be a war in Europe. The plan for a common European army was ultimately blocked by France, even though the loss of sovereignty involved would have been easy to implement. It is actually hard to envisage how a loss of monetary sovereignty could be achieved in the absence of a unified state."

Mr Weidmann: "Seeing how reluctant some countries are to relinquish their fiscal policy autonomy - even in return for financial assistance - it is hard to imagine political union being achieved in the foreseeable future."

Mr Schlesinger, should the Bundesbank have fought more strongly against monetary union without a political counterweight in the 1990s?

Continued 1 2 3 4





 


1.
Obama does Syriana

2. Obama brings Erdogan in to bat

3. Sacrificing Iran's queen

4. Where is Prince Bandar?

5. 'Occupy' with Chinese characteristics

6. Punk vs Putin

7. China addicted to Hong Kong's 'opium'

8. Saudi uprising trumps sectarian card

9. Mission failure: Afghanistan

10. Iran's fate after Assad

(Aug 3-5, 2012)

 
 


 

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