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4 CREDIT BUBBLE
BULLETIN Wacky and
wackier Commentary and weekly
watch by Doug Noland
Things get wackier by
the week. My proposition has been that once a
credit crisis comes to afflict the "core"
(gravitating from the "periphery") the deleterious
consequences tend to be irreversible. As such,
with Spain now engulfed in full-fledged financial,
economic, political and social crisis, the overall
European debt crisis has turned interminable.
Of course, desperate politicians and
central bankers promise to do whatever it takes to
finally resolve the crisis. "Pointless to short
the euro," European Central Bank president Mario
Draghi warned on Thursday. Their determination is
surely intensified by the fact that they are
fighting for the very survival of euro monetary
integration.
Policymakers and market
participants alike appreciate what's at
stake. With global risk
markets these days enveloped in an extraordinary
"risk on, risk off" speculative melee, the
historic battle to "save" the euro has come to
dictate global trading dynamics. The European
crisis is taking an increasing toll on the global
economy, though the incredible measures to combat
the bursting of the European credit bubble fuel an
escalating speculative bubble throughout global
risk markets.
Why does "core" affliction
prove such a momentous crisis development?
Importantly, the associated costs become enormous
and, by definition, the number of parties with the
wherewithal to finance a core country bailout
turns quite limited.
While large, initial
Greek bailouts costs were manageable when spread
across euro zone partners and a robust ECB. The
ultimate costs of bailing out Spain's banks,
regional governments and the sovereign will be
many hundreds of billions. And with "robust" a
thing of the past, there are scant few places to
spread huge prospective bailout expenses.
Italy is on the ropes and France is
increasingly vulnerable. It is today essentially
left to the Germans and the ECB to shoulder the
burden of bailout responsibility. And only a small
and increasingly isolated minority has an issue
with gambling German creditworthiness and ECB
credibility.
It's been my thesis that
there would come a time when the Germans would
begin to reevaluate. There are the age-old
economic issues around "solvency versus
illiquidity" to contend with - along with that
fateful "throwing good money after bad"
predicament. There is the issue of sacrificing
one's creditworthiness for the profligacy and
misdeeds of others. These issues can be downplayed
or completely disregarded - they're just not going
to go away.
At the end of the day, I don't
expect the German people will be willing to
shoulder the financial burdens of Spain and Italy.
The Germans won't bury themselves and won't be
blackmailed. And I don't expect the Bundesbank to
completely turn over the keys to the European
Central Bank printing press and vault to the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology-trained
Italian economist Mario Draghi. There are very
deep philosophical differences. Think Grand
Canyon.
The markets' Thursday-to-Friday
depressive-manic response to Draghi was something
to behold (being kind here). Reasons behind the
about face were not immediately obvious. The
Financial Times' sanguine view didn't hurt: "Far
from moderating his forceful London remarks, Mr
Draghi made clear that the ECB is ready to act to
stop the disintegration of eurozone financial
markets. In a significant step for the ECB's
interpretation of its own role, he left no doubt
that the central bank considers it 'squarely'
within its mandate to counteract 'convertibility
risk' - the market effect produced by doubts that
the euro will survive intact. Mr Draghi, in
combative mood, declared that the euro is here to
stay: it is 'pointless' to bet against it - a big
statement."
The FT editorial made its own
big statement: "Investors ... should not
underestimate the adroitness of Mr Draghi's
political maneuver."
Candidly, I missed it
when watching Draghi's press conference; few were
thinking impressively adroit on Thursday. After
the previous week's bluster, Draghi simply didn't
have the goods. Moreover, he seemed content to dig
a deeper hole for himself. Indeed, one was left
assuming that his latest big bazooka idea wasn't
about to pass muster with an increasingly alarmed
Bundesbank. But that was Thursday thinking.
Capturing the much-improved Friday market
mood - and the markets' imagination - was a big
statement from an ECB policymaker: "There are 23
members in the council and if there will be a vote
then everyone's vote has the same weight in the
sense that some questions are solved by a
majority." Rather bold for a new member of the
ECB's rate setting committee from the Bank of
Estonia to claim his bank's vote is as powerful as
that from the esteemed Bundesbank.
Especially by week's end, markets were
happy to disregard what I believe were telling
comments from prominent Bundesbank officials -
current and former. Otmar Issing penned a
brilliant op-ed for Monday's Financial Times,
"Europe's Political Union is Worthy of Satire".
This was followed by "the Bundesbank celebrates
its 55th birthday on 1 August and continues to
stand for an exceptionally strong orientation to
stability", with the Bundesbank's website
highlighting an insightful interview with current
Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and former
(1991-1993) head Helmut Schlesinger. Considering
the backdrop, I thought this interview was worthy
of major excerpts.
Mr Weidmann: "...Despite all our
various qualifications and tasks, within the
Bank, there is a shared vision and a clear
commitment to monetary stability. This is unique
for such an institution and has also made the
Bank an attractive option for people applying to
work for us. The public good of maintaining
price stability and thus contributing to the
common good is a major incentive for many."
Mr Weidmann, how did you yourself see
the Bundesbank, say, while you were at
university?
Mr Weidmann: "In 1987 I was
studying in France. The Banque de France was not
yet independent at the time. That is when I
first clearly saw the differences in outlook
concerning the role of, and oversight over, the
central bank. I myself had pretty much 'inhaled'
the Bundesbank's role; my French student
friends, however, could not possibly imagine a
government institution performing a key
sovereign task and still being outside
parliamentary control. Two very different world
views were colliding. They have continued to do
so in all political debates - essentially, up to
the present day."
Where can you identify
this?
Mr Weidmann: "I recently gave an
interview to the French daily newspaper 'Le
Monde'. Many readers responded to the
substantive positioning, some positively, some
negatively. However, some responded along the
lines of 'Why is he meddling in the political
debate? He's only a central bank governor, a
'civil servant' who actually shouldn't be saying
anything on the matter."
In 1990, the
Bundesbank wrote that the participants in
economic and monetary union would be
inextricably linked to one another 'come what
may' and that such a union would be an
'irrevocable joint and several community which,
in the light of past experience, requires a more
far-reaching association, in the form of a
comprehensive political union, if it is to
remain durable'.
Mr Weidmann: "The
assessment at that time merely reflected the
Bank's long-held position. As early as 1963,
President Karl Blessing had stated that the
introduction of monetary union should be
conditional on political union. The Bank's
stance has not only been consistent over time
but has, in fact, taken on even greater
relevance in a dramatic way owing to the recent
crisis in the euro area."
Political
union did not feature in the Maastricht Treaty
at the end of 1991. How did the Central Bank
Council react to this?
Mr Schlesinger:
"When I took office as President of the Deutsche
Bundesbank in the summer of 1991, Chancellor
Helmut Kohl was still in favor of political
union. However, the decision to implement
monetary union by no later than 1999 was taken
just four months later. This was a clear defeat
for us. There is no other way of putting it. We
had assumed that the Treaty would be concluded
with a definition of the entry criteria, but
without a fixed date being set."
Mr
Weidmann: "It is interesting that we are having
a similar discussion now in connection with the
banking union. Here, too, some quarters are
evidently seeking a far-reaching joint solution,
but without imposing stricter rules on the other
policy areas that are also affected. A genuine
European banking supervision can indeed form a
major component of closer integration within
monetary union. However, such an institutional
reorganization of banking supervision also has
to be integrated - into a comprehensive reform
of the supervisory regulatory framework and of
the respective national scope for economic and
fiscal policy. Otherwise, too great a burden
will be placed on banking supervision."
What is crucial for political union is
the willingness to hand over national
sovereignty. Does such a willingness actually
exist within the EU?
Mr Schlesinger:
"This question always takes me back to the start
of European unification. At that time, the main
objective was quite a different one - namely, to
ensure that there would never again be a war in
Europe. The plan for a common European army was
ultimately blocked by France, even though the
loss of sovereignty involved would have been
easy to implement. It is actually hard to
envisage how a loss of monetary sovereignty
could be achieved in the absence of a unified
state."
Mr Weidmann: "Seeing how
reluctant some countries are to relinquish their
fiscal policy autonomy - even in return for
financial assistance - it is hard to imagine
political union being achieved in the
foreseeable future."
Mr Schlesinger, should the Bundesbank have fought
more strongly against monetary union without a political counterweight
in the 1990s?
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