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Analysis: Syria - three wars for
the price of one
If you
think the war in Syria is hard to follow, that's
because there's actually three of them - at least.
Distinct but interconnected, the competing web of
allegiances and motivations puts al-Qaeda on the
same side as the USA and makes a solution
impossible. By SIMON ALLISON.
Many people, like this reporter, find the
Syrian war confusing sometimes. It throws up all
kind of strange and unnatural contradictions, like
America appearing to be on the same side as
al-Qaeda-linked jihadists and Al-Jazeera turning
into a typical, propaganda-spouting state media
house. No doubt policy-makers
also find it difficult
to understand. It's been nearly two years and
there's still no sensible international policy on
Syria, just a steady stream of ad-hoc
condemnations and hamstrung mediations.
There's a simple reason for all this
confusion and complexity: it's a very, very
complicated situation. Even worse, there's not
just one war being fought in Syria, but at least
three and possibly even more.
War number
one is the one we're all familiar with (especially
if we've been watching too much Al-Jazeera). This
is your typical Arab Spring narrative, pitting a
downtrodden civilian population against the brutal
regime that has repressed its people for so long.
It's a simple tale of good-versus-evil, of
democracy taking on dictatorship, of the people
sticking it to the man. We've seen variations of
the theme in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, all of
which ended with the people hurling off the yoke
of dictatorship and replacing it with a new,
enlightened, freely-elected government (oh, wait;
it hasn't quite ended like that in any of these
countries, but let's not spoil a good story with
the facts).
Elements of this story are
true in Syria. Certainly, the regime was brutal
and autocratic, happy to stifle political freedoms
and concentrate wealth and power in the hands of a
very few, mostly of the Alawite ethnic minority.
In fact, the Syrian security forces had such a
world-class reputation for torture that they were,
on occasion, prevailed upon by American
intelligence to practise their craft on detainees
as part America's extraordinary rendition program.
There was popular dissent, too. Not much
of it initially, but it grew in size and voice in
the wake of the uprisings in other Arab countries.
Whether or not the anti-Assad movement was really
a majority will be argued over endlessly in years
to come, but it is important to recognise that
just as there was a large anti-Assad sentiment, so
there was a significant chunk of the population
that was happy with the status quo; autocracies
are stable and peaceful, after all, unlike
revolutions and civil wars.
War number two
is not really about Syria at all. Instead, it's
about Middle Eastern and global geopolitics, and
it's very messy. In one corner is the Syrian
Alawite regime and Iran, who are natural allies.
The Alawites are a sect of Shi'a Islam, while Iran
is an explicitly Shi'a state (as opposed to Sunni
Islam, the other main branch of the religion).
Russia finds itself in this camp too, desperate to
protect its vital naval base in the Syrian port of
Tartus - its only reliable warm water port. So too
does China, which sees no reason to put its
excellent trading relationship with Syria in
jeopardy.
Ranged against this formidable
combination is a regional alliance of Qatar, Saudi
Arabia and Turkey, all of which would love to see
Bashar al-Assad replaced with a more compliant
Sunni leader. All have designs on regional
leadership, and in Syria they find common cause.
Turkey was one of the first countries to express
support for the Syrian rebels, while both Qatar
and Saudi Arabia have helped to fund and arm them.
Qatar has also been accused - with some
justification - of using its hugely influential
satellite TV channel, Al-Jazeera (specifically the
Arabic version) to influence public opinion by
portraying a one-sided version of events.
Lurking behind this regional triumvirate
is the United States and the Western world, their
foreign policy distorted, as usual, by their
Iranian paranoia. Robert Fisk, doyen of Middle
East correspondents, summed up their approach in
the Independent: "This is an attempt to crush the
Syrian dictatorship not because of our love for
Syrians or our hatred of our former friend Bashar
al-Assad, or because of our outrage at Russia,
whose place in the pantheon of hypocrites is clear
when we watch its reaction to all the little
Stalingrads across Syria. No, this is all about
Iran and our desire to crush the Islamic Republic
and its infernal nuclear plans - if they exist -
and has nothing to do with human rights or the
right to life or the death of Syrian babies."
Syria, in other words, is a proxy war; a
relatively safe place (for everyone else, not for
Syria) to fight the battles that can't yet be
fought in the open.
But it doesn't end
there. There's a third war happening. This one
pits the nominally Shi'a (though relatively
secular) Syrian state against the global Sunni
jihadist movement (known to Americans as
"terrorists"). A flood of reports recently have
explained how fighters from all over the Arab
world, many of them battle-hardened in
Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq, have come to the
support of the Syrian rebels.
This from Ed
Husain in the National Review is typical: "Our
collective excitement at the possibility that the
Assad regime will be destroyed, and the Iranian
ayatollahs weakened in the process, is blurring
our vision and preventing us from seeing the rise
of al-Qaeda in Syria. In March of this year,
jihadis mounted seven attacks against Assad. By
June, they had led 66 "operations", and over half
of these were on Syria's capital, Damascus. The
Syrian opposition is benefiting hugely from the
terrorist organization's determination,
discipline, combat experience, religious fervour,
and ability to strike the Assad regime where it
hurts most."
The War on Terror has reached
Syria and somehow, America and al-Qaeda find
themselves fighting on the same side. No wonder no
one seems to know what's really going on.
Nor does anyone know how to stop it. With
all these tangled conflicts and competing
interests and motivations, figuring out a solution
seems like an impossible task. Which, so far, is
exactly what it's proven to be. DM
This
article is run courtesy of Daily Maverick. To
visit their site, please click here.
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