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Koizumi's Pyongyang visit a risky
business
TOKYO - Japan is abuzz
over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit to North
Korea next week, one that has as much potential for
success as it has for yet another failure.
When
he arrives in the North Korean capital Pyongyang on
Tuesday, Koizumi will be the first Japanese leader to
visit the Stalinist state and hold a meeting with its
reclusive leader, Kim Jong-il.
Tokyo's
announcement of Koizumi's trip surprised many here and
overseas, given the suspicion with which Japan and North
Korea have dealt with each other over the decades.
The issue of a Japanese apology for its
colonization of the Korean Peninsula from 1910-45 and
North Korea's calls for compensation, the alleged
abductions of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents
in the 1970s and 1980s, and more recent intrusions by
spy ships into Japan's waters have soured relations
immeasurably.
In this context, "the decision to
take a one-day visit to Pyongyang is dramatic. The
implications are wide and risky," says a political
analyst at the Modern Korea Institute.
Nearly
six decades after the end of Japan's colonization of the
Korean Peninsula, Japan has not yet normalized relations
with North Korea. Ties with Pyongyang have been thorny,
while Tokyo forged diplomatic relations with South Korea
in 1965.
From the viewpoint of Japan, a longtime
US ally, North Korea's inclusion by Washington in what
US President George W Bush calls the "axis of evil" does
not help relations with the Stalinist state.
North Korean leader Kim's moves in recent years
to come out of diplomatic isolation, including trips to
China and Russia, are also watched closely here.
But many Japanese continue to look at it with
suspicion because of domestic issues, ranging from the
abduction of 11 of its nationals by North Korea to
Pyongyang's test-firing of a missile in 1998 that flew
over Japanese territory and rattled the public.
How Japan moves in its ties with North Korea -
in the process giving Pyongyang's emergence from
isolation an extra push - is thus closely watched by
analysts.
"Japan is the only country in the
world that is the target of North Korean aggression,
which is why Koizumi's visit is watched so carefully by
the world," said Takemasa Moriya, director of the Bureau
of Defense Policy.
In fact, Japanese officials
say that the settlement of the abduction issue is the
first required step before any normalization of ties
with Pyongyang can happen.
High on the Japanese
public's list of concerns about North Korea is the fate
of the 11 kidnapped Japanese nationals, an issue that
has come into the national focus since Koizumi announced
his trip to North Korea on August 30.
"North
Korea agreed to talk to me, saying it will take up the
issue" of the abductions of Japanese citizens, said
Koizumi. The announcement of his trip led to what the
Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported as a rise in his public
approval ratings from 43 to 51 percent in a poll it did
in early September.
The abducted Japanese are
used to teach the Japanese language and customs to North
Korean spies, who then infiltrate Japan to do military
surveillance and to gather information and technology,
officials say. For instance, the North Korean spy behind
the 1987 bombing of a Korean Air jet, killing all 155
aboard, had told the media that she learned Japanese
from a kidnapped Japanese national. Officials add that
North Korean spies have used Japanese passports to enter
Japan and other countries for espionage purposes. North
Korea has denied the allegations of abduction, but
recently indicated it is willing to search for the
missing persons.
On Wednesday, Shigeru Yokota,
father of Megumi, who disappeared at the age of 13 years
in 1977 from Niigata prefecture, northern Japan, said he
was optimistic about the results of Koizumi's visit.
"We are hoping against hope," he told a media
briefing. "We expect the prime minister to return with
concrete evidence of the whereabouts of my daughter and
other missing persons. Only then can we call the visit
successful."
Relatives of those abducted have
waited for years without concrete evidence about their
kin, but some are hoping that those still in held in
North Korea can one day return to Japan.
Professor Toshiyuki Shikata, an expert on the
Korean Peninsula at Tokyo University, believes that
Koizumi has embarked on a political gamble by going to
North Korea. "Dealing with North Korea is not easy," he
points out. "A dialogue with leader Kim Jong-il can
misfire, as we know by experience up to now."
Indeed, past negotiations between Tokyo and
Pyongyang have been bogged down in misunderstandings and
disagreements. Several meetings between North Korean
officials and the Japanese Red Cross Society on the
missing Japanese have not borne fruit.
The Asahi
poll this month showed that 53 percent of those surveyed
said they "greatly" or "somewhat" expected
Pyongyang-Tokyo ties to warm with Koizumi's trip, while
46 percent said they did not expect much or anything at
all to come of it.
Asked if the visit would
clarify the issue of the abductions, 28 percent said
there would be progress but 64 percent said they
expected no improvement.
Still, the odds could
be in Koizumi's favor. For instance, North Korea's
deteriorating communist economy - its leaders recently
showed signs of toying with some elements of a market
economy - could force Kim to comply with some of
Koizumi's requests on the abduction issue.
North
Korea has been struggling with years of drought and
famine, a situation that has fueled the number of
refugees fleeing to neighboring countries such as China.
Recently, Kim adopted a new policy allowing foreign
investors to take more than a 50 percent stake in joint
ventures in order to boost investment.
Shikata
says there is the possibility that Koizumi, known as a
straight-talking and charismatic leader, would win Kim
over. Still, Moriya warns against over-optimism.
"The visit could end up only a show, which could
be a devastating blow to the hopes of Koizumi," the
weekly Shukan Bunshun cautioned last week.
(Inter Press Service)
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