| |
Russia has Japan on the back foot over
Kurils
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - The Kremlin has made some "goodwill"
gestures toward Japan aimed at the revival of talks on
their territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands and the
still unsigned post-World War II peace treaty.
Simultaneously, Moscow still refuses to offer Tokyo any
concessions, and some Russian officials have described
Japan's hardline stance on the territorial dispute over
the four islands as detached from reality.
On
the face of it, Moscow's official pronouncements sound
conciliatory. On October 14, President Vladimir Putin
was quoted as telling visiting Japanese Foreign Minister
Yoriko Kawaguchi that Russia sought expanded cooperation
with Japan. However, Putin conceded that bilateral trade
remained low, and in 2001 trade turnover in fact dropped
by 11 percent as compared to 2000.
Moscow
presumably hopes that despite the continuing territorial
dispute, Japan could still play a role in tapping the
vast natural resources of Russia's Far East. On October
12, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov expressed hope
that Japan would join a project to build a gas pipeline
from Sakhalin to Japan. Kawaguchi reportedly stated that
Japan would continue to play a role in the development
of oil and gas fields off Sakhalin.
Kawaguchi
was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency that
Japanese investments in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2
offshore oil projects had reached some US$900 million,
more than the combined Japanese private investments of
roughly $700 million in all other Russian projects.
Yet apart from economic matters, Russia and
Japan pledged to discuss global security. Ivanov also
announced that on November 13-14 Russian and Japanese
officials would hold talks in Tokyo on issues relating
to the war on terror. However, the unsolved territorial
dispute still remains a key issue in relations between
Russia and Japan.
Tokyo acquired the islands
in dispute - the 10,360 square kilometers of Etorofu, Kunashiri,
Shikotan and the Habomai islets - in a treaty with
Russia in 1875. The Soviet Union took them back in the
closing days of World War II, a move that Japan has
protested ever since as illegal.
Further, Moscow
and Tokyo never signed a peace treaty at the end of
World War II in 1945 because of Japan's claim over the
four Kuril Islands. Russia has suggested the signing of
a treaty before solving the territorial dispute, but
Japan objects.
However, it is understood that
the real issue of the territorial dispute is its
economic dimension. The waters around the Kurils are
among the richest fishing grounds in the world, as more
than a million tons of valuable seafood products can be
harvested there every year. Most Russian fishermen are
keen to sell their catches to Japan, where they get
better prices. Illegal Russian seafood exports to Japan
are estimated at $700 million a year, according to the
State Committee on Fishery.
On the other hand,
officially, Tokyo has been reluctant to develop economic
ties with Moscow because of the territorial dispute.
However, in a dramatic policy change, Ryutaro Hashimoto
in July 1997 proposed a plan to improve bilateral
relations based on "trust, mutual benefit and a
long-term viewpoint". At the Krasnoyarsk summit in
Siberia in November 1997, both nations decided to
conclude a peace treaty by 2000, effectively separating
the treaty from the territorial issue.
Until
Hashimoto's policy turnaround, successive Japanese
governments had said that there would be no expansion of
economic ties, including aid or large-scale investment
in Russia, without a solution to the territorial
dispute. However, hopes to solve differences and sign a
peace treaty before the end of the century failed to
materialize - and now look even less promising than
before.
The most recent Russo-Japanese summit
meeting between Putin and former prime minister Yoshiro
Mori took place on March 25, 2001, in the Siberian city
of Irkutsk. They signed a joint statement confirming a
1956 bilateral declaration as a "basis-setting legal
document". In the 1956 declaration, in Article 9, Moscow
pledged to return two islands - Habomai and Shikotan -
once a peace treaty was signed.
In early
February 2002, Tokyo claimed that the foreign ministers
of both nations had agreed to conduct "two-track" or
"dual" talks by separating talks on conditions for the
return to Japan of the Shikotan and Habomai group of
islets from those of the Kunashiri and Etorofu islands.
"Dual approach" was advocated by once influential, but
now disgraced and indicted, lawmaker Muneo Suzuki.
In the wake of Suzuki's demise, last March
Tokyo froze aid to the Kuril Islands. On the other hand,
the Russian Foreign Ministry has rejected using
the so-called "two-track" approach. It has been
understood that Kawaguchi came to Moscow to push for a
so-called "action plan" to be adopted next January 10 at a
summit meeting in Moscow between Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi and Putin.
In this plan,
Russia and Japan are supposed to work out ways to
increase their economic and international cooperation
along with the talks for a peace treaty. The action plan
involves further diplomatic cooperation, presumably
including North Korean issues.
For instance, on
October 14, Putin hailed Koizumi's recent trip to North
Korea as a "historic event not only for Asia but for the
whole world" and expressed willingness to cooperate with
Japan in the search of a solution for the problems on
the Korean peninsula. Kawaguchi reportedly conveyed
Koizumi's thanks for Moscow's help in arranging the
North Korean trip. Tokyo has welcomed Putin's expressing
concern over North Korea's abduction of Japanese
nationals when he and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il
met in Vladivostok in August.
Moreover,
Japan and Russia have expressed interest in forming
a six-party forum comprising the two Koreas,
Japan, Russia, China and the United States to discuss
North Korea. In the meantime, Moscow still maintains
close ties with Pyongyang. Russia and North Korea were due
to hold joint naval exercises in November, Admiral
Viktor Fyodorov, commander of the Russian Pacific
Fleet, announced this month.
However, it is
understood that possible cooperation between Russia and
Japan on North Korea would do little in achieving any
progress in the territorial feud. Tokyo still insists
the dispute over the islands must be resolved before the
two countries conclude a peace treaty - and this stance
remains unacceptable for Moscow.
Moreover, the
Kremlin has hinted that it does not have any hope in
clinching a deal with Japan any time soon. On October
11, the Russian official news agency RIA quoted
anonymous Russian officials as saying that Moscow did
not expect any breakthrough from the talks and Putin's
readiness to meet Kawaguchi was merely "a good will
gesture towards Japan".
Certain progress towards
mutual understanding achieved under Mori's cabinet was
lost because of Koizumi's "radical position". "Japan's
position became radicalized due to Koizumi's aggressive
style and his staff's lack of experience," subsequently,
Japan's policies towards Russia became "detached from
reality", RIA commented.
Moreover, normal
interaction between top diplomats has not been easy
since last February when Kawaguchi accused her Russian
counterpart, Igor Ivanov, of lying about bilateral
talks. Kawaguchi claimed that Ivanov had misinformed
journalists about bilateral talks on a peace treaty.
And after recent Russian economic growth,
Moscow has become less interested in Japanese economic
assistance. "Now Moscow is not particularly interested
in Tokyo" since bilateral trade is negligible and Russia
does not depend on Japan's loans, Russian officials told
RIA.
Therefore, Moscow is not likely to offer
Tokyo any major concessions and will also make it clear
that Russia is not interested in any of Japan's would-be
economic carrots. Anyway, since Japan effectively lacks
either a carrot or a stick to influence Moscow's
policies, it becomes increasingly hard to imagine how
Tokyo will secure any territorial concessions from
Russia.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
