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Japan still at sea over US military
alliance
By Axel Berkofsky
The Japanese military will continue its
anti-terror mission in the Indian Ocean while the United
States keeps on breathing down Japan's neck. The
Japanese government has decided once again to extend the
assignment of its Maritime Self-Defense Force troops to
the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea for another six months.
Under the Japanese special-measures law to fight
terrorism, a review of the Japanese participation in the
US-led fight against international terrorism is required
every six months and the next deadline is November 19.
Just as before the first deadline in April, the US
administration has reportedly again "helped" Japanese
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi make up his mind on
whether to continue Japan's contribution to the US-led
war against terrorism.
Sailing home is not an option just
yet, was the message coming from the Pentagon over the
past months, and after the final decision made by the
Japanese cabinet on November 15, Japanese troops will be
authorized to continue refueling US and British warships
in the Indian Ocean. Now, it seems however, the United
States wants more than that and is planning to promote
Japan from gas pump to full-fledged military ally. Apart
from requesting Japanese vessels also to refuel German,
French and Australian ships stationed in the Indian
Ocean, the United States, also not for first time, asked
Japan additionally to dispatch Aegis destroyers and P-3C
anti-submarine patrol aircraft.
Dispatching
the state-of-the-art Aegis destroyers, equipped with highly advanced surveillance capabilities,
radar and weapon systems that complement
US weapons systems, has been on the list
of US requests for some time, although Koizumi
has declined so far, claiming that the warships are
militarily too "high-profile" for a self-declared pacifist
country. However, it was announced
on the week-end that Tokyo, responding
to an unofficial request from Washington,
has begun looking into dispatching a destroyer equipped with
the Aegis air-defense system and P-3C Orion antisubmarine patrol aircraft
to the Indian Ocean in support of the US
military in the case of an attack
on Iraq.
Japanese Defense Agency and
Foreign Ministry officials, on the other hand, were
always eager to show up with the high-tech vessels in
the Indian Ocean, claiming that Aegis ships might become
"indispensable to provide security for the refueling
operations if the Japanese mission is to go beyond the
Indian Ocean".
"Beyond the Indian Ocean" is the
Persian Gulf for Japanese vessels, and US government
officials have made it repeatedly clear over the past
months that they are expecting at least the same level
of support Japan is currently providing when the United
States moves on to Iraq to get rid of Saddam Hussein by
force.
Japan's anti-terrorism law, implemented
last November authorizing Japan's logistical support for
US troops for the US-led military operation in
Afghanistan, however, does not enable Japanese military
engagement beyond Afghanistan and refueling US and
British warships just yet. Then again making the
anti-terrorism law applicable for missions beyond
Afghanistan could only be a matter of adding a few lines
to the current version the law, maintains Ken Jimbo,
research fellow at the Tokyo-based Japan Institute for
International Affairs.
"The law could be
slightly modified to authorize a Japanese engagement
supporting a US military operation against Iraq," he
says, adding that "failing to do so would indeed lead to
serious disappointment in Washington".
Japanese
Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi apparently does not
want to see long faces in Washington either and
announced, after meeting with US Defense Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld in September, that Japan is "willing and
prepared to extend its support for US anti-terrorism
operations any time".
"What's new?" ask
political commentators in Japan, maintaining that
Koizumi and his cabinet got used to Rumsfeld, Deputy
Secretary of State Richard Armitage and other US
officials reminding the Japanese prime minister that the
United States is planning to count on Japan's
unconditional support that Koizumi promised so
enthusiastically earlier this year.
Armitage
visited Tokyo at the end of August, calling his visit "a
chance to exchange views about the danger of any
developments of weapons of mass destruction", while
political commentators in Japan suspected that the visit
served mainly to get Japan ready to dispatch ships and
troops toward the Persian Gulf if the United States says
so.
Putting Japan under pressure to dispatch its
military, one might might say, is indeed an already
familiar part of US-Japan relations, even though this
time the United States wants Japan to support a war that
virtually nobody else does.
The United States,
of course, begs to differ, claiming that "many
countries" would join in attacking Iraq without a United
Nations mandate. So far, however, only Britain and
Bulgaria have promised their support and the US is for
obvious reasons very eager to persuade Japan to be part
of the not-so-many-countries coalition when push comes
to shove.
Hisahiko Okazaki, Japan's
defense-hawk-in-chief and president of the Tokyo-based
Okazaki Research Institute, thinks Japan has no choice
but to support the US, advising his government to take a
somewhat more "positive" stance toward a pre-emptive and
apparently unprovoked military strike against Iraq.
"Betting on the winning side is in Japan's
national interest given that an anti-Iraq operation is
very likely to succeed," Okazaki recently wrote in the
Japan Times, claiming that is "only natural to support a
close friend now that America is reaching the point of
no return".
A recent survey conducted by Kyodo
News that concluded that 80 percent of the lawmakers of
the ruling bloc favor a US attack on Iraq seems indeed
to confirm that Japan's policy-makers are ready to go
along with the familiar Japanese strategy of huddling up
with the dominant power of the day.
Not so fast,
counter others who maintain that not even US pressure
and Koizumi's smooth talk can persuade Japan to
participate in a military operation that lacks
international legitimacy.
"Japan is very worried about the
legitimacy of military action against Iraq and Japan's
leadership can't afford to be involved in global
escapades that haven't been blessed by the world's most
important collective security body, the UN," believes
Steve Clemons, vice president of the New America
Foundation and director of the Japan Policy Research
Institute.
What's next on US-Japan bilateral agenda?
"Close consultations", says the US; "more pressure
actively to support a war against Iraq", fear the
critics in Japan who suspect that Armitage will again be
knocking at Japan's door as soon as President George W
Bush gives the go-ahead to replace the regime in Iraq by
force.
Consultations among equal alliance
partners might indeed not be what the US is up to when
talking to its junior alliance partner the next time,
suspects Clemons. "I sometimes think that Richard
Armitage and company feel like they need to play the
role of weekend father or big brother to Japan, helping
it to flex its military wings a bit now and then," he
says, indicating that the United States wants no
pacifist weaklings when military action is on the
agenda.
Meanwhile in Japan, US Ambassador to
Japan Howard Baker is reportedly "confident" that Japan
would certainly do the "right thing" and support a US
military strike against Iraq, with or without a UN
mandate.
"We in America are very sensitive to
the fact that Japan is our ally," Baker said in Tokyo
last month, urging Koizumi to follow Britain's example
instead of thinking about exit strategies.
Whether Koizumi is overly interested in becoming
Asia's Tony Blair remains to be seen, and the timing for
another potential Japanese military commitment could not
be worse now that that disarming North Korea is clearly
Japan's main concern.
Political commentators
believe that the possibility of heightened tensions on
the Korean Peninsula after the revelations that North
Korea has secretly continued its nuclear-weapons program
could yet put additional pressure on the Japanese
government to follow the US hard line when dealing with
the members of Bush's "axis of evil".
Japan's
wait-and-see-attitude and reluctance to voice anything
resembling a clear-cut stance on Iraq, it seems, remain
the country's big handicap, making Koizumi an
all-too-easy target for requests for military support
from trigger-happy America.
(©2002 Asia Times
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