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ANALYSIS
Japan's spontaneous support for
war
By Devin T Stewart
TOKYO
- Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi announced
last Thursday that Japan would support "responsible
measures" by the United States (read "including war") to
deal with Iraq. He explained: "The situation is now at
the eleventh hour and a possible peaceful resolution of
the matter is in the hands of Iraq. Japan, being a
member of the international community and an ally of the
United States, has to take responsible measures in
dealing with the situation."
Although the
announcement caught many by surprise, this development
did not come out of the blue. Japan has been
contributing to the US war on terrorism, broadly
speaking, for a while, and the US Central Intelligence
Agency's analysis that Iraq is a supporter of and
harbors terrorists is convincing. After September 11,
2001, Koizumi was able to get a law passed that would
allow Japan to participate in the war against terrorism.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is
tightening its control of Japanese exports that could
possibly help terrorist attacks. And in December, Japan
moved its 7,250-ton Kirishima battleship, equipped with
the high-tech Aegis missile detection system, from
Yokosuka to the Indian Ocean (see Aid and comfort: Aegis sets
sail, December 19, 2002). This
deployment was meant to help with a possible attack on
Iraq. In other words, the materiel is already there.
So far, Japan has been keeping its political
options open while trying to balance two, sometimes
conflicting, goals: being a good neighbor to the other
countries in the region and being a good ally of the
United States. Koizumi's statement sharply illustrates
this balancing act. On one hand, history and
sensitivities in Asia preclude the prime minister from
boldly supporting US military action without
antagonizing its neighbors and possibly alienating Asian
countries, which could even strengthen China's growing
center of gravity.
On the other hand, Japan does
not want to repeat its performance in 1991 of primarily
supplying financial support and no troops to the
coalition that repelled Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. A
compounding factor is Japan's awareness that it will
not, and cannot, meet its closest ally's wishes of
repairing its economic engine any time soon. Another
factor in the mix is something that has been under way
for a while: Japan is starting to acknowledge and feel
more comfortable with what it is, a rich, advanced
nation with a well-funded professional military.
What came last week was a confirmation that
Japan is on the United States' side of the debate when
it comes to Iraq. That eight European leaders came out,
in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, in support of the
US approach toward Iraq and Secretary of State Colin
Powell's performance in front of the United Nations
Security Council last week has provided the political
momentum and evidence to support an invasion.
It
is important to note, however, that there was no public
debate in Japan on whether it should support the US or
not in Iraq. Koizumi has let the process of debate and
consensus-building take place outside Japan, and he has
decided that the world is coming around to holding the
view that Iraq has been deceitful. In any case, if
Koizumi had posed the question to the Japanese people,
he would have risked getting an answer that he would not
like. In the meantime, many Japanese remain disengaged
from and apathetic toward politics.
Sure, the
Japanese are avid readers of print media and there are
often protests in Tokyo, but they are usually financial
in nature. Which brings me to the final point. Koizumi
was supposed to be the guy who was going to clean up
Japan's financial system and get the economy going. But
what are his options? At this point he will get either a
financial crisis or more sluggish growth for years. And
it appears that he and his Central Bank are betting that
tepid growth and institutional change are better than a
crisis.
But clearly neither option makes good
political sense. So Koizumi is doing something he can
do, and policy is the art of the possible. While Japan
cannot contribute much to promote economic security, it
can try to contribute in another way to world military
security at large.
Japan's decision to support
the United States was the right one, and I am sure that
the countries that fight terrorism will appreciate
Japan's participation. Nervous about his sinking
popularity, Koizumi told opposition Diet lawmakers last
Friday that he is "not a dictator" and that the slowness
of economic reform reflects democratic debate. But the
above episode does point to something seriously lacking
inside of Japan: public debate.
Devin T
Stewart is a researcher and chairman of the Korea
Japan Study Group in Tokyo.
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