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Military buildup: US, Tokyo ignore public
By Axel Berkofsky
While the
United States is reportedly planning to beef up its
military forces and hardware in East Asia to keep North
Korea in check, the public in Japan and South Korea is
clearly less than enthusiastic about more US military
presence in their countries.
The US, however,
determined to "deter North Korean adventurism during a
war with Iraq", as the administration of President
George W Bush puts it, is apparently unfazed by Japanese
and South Korean public opinion. The US Pacific Command
is planning to deploy more troops and warplanes in Japan
and South Korea in response to US satellite photos
allegedly showing that North Korea is about to start
reprocessing spent uranium fuel rods into weapons-grade
plutonium.
The command urged Secretary of
Defense Donald Rumsfeld to add eight F-15
fighter-bombers and 2,000 US troops to back up the
37,000 already stationed in the Korean Peninsula, as
well as additional reconnaissance aircraft to US bases
in Japan and South Korea.
Rumsfeld has indicated
that he supports his generals' request, although he has
yet to sign the final order for the military buildup in
the Far East. In fact, it seems that Washington does not
want its friends and foes to get overly alarmed about
the demonstration of US military might in East Asia just
yet, even if North Korea threatens to run amok from time
to time.
"We will of course have direct talks
with North Korea on nuclear issues," reassured Deputy
Secretary of State Richard Armitage, although it remains
to be seen whether Washington's planned military buildup
in East Asia will be helpful in bringing Pyongyang back
to the negotiation table.
North Korea's initial
response in fact indicates otherwise, and Pyongyang is
reportedly prepared to counter the US military buildup
in East Asia, claiming that Washington is playing dirty
by getting ready to strike North Korea preemptively.
"Although the US is talking about not wanting to attack
us, seeking a peaceful solution, they are finalizing war
preparations," complained Pyongyang's state-run Korean
Central News Agency (KCNA).
North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il himself checked on his military's
preparedness, identifying "invincible fighters equipped
with the spirit of human bombs ready to answer
aggression from the US imperialists", KCNA reports.
South Korean media meanwhile reported that the US Air
Force has raised its combat-readiness level on the
peninsula, and aired their suspicions that the Pentagon
does not bother to brief the government in Seoul on
military strategy.
The top US military commander
in South Korea, General Leon LaPorte, dismissed these
reports as "false", promising that the United States
will "consult" with the South Korean government on its
military moves regarding North Korea. "The combined
US-South Korean forces are highly trained, well equipped
and superbly led," he said, indicating that at least
deploying more US troops to South Korea is not on the
agenda for the time being.
No US-Japan
consultations, on the other hand, seem to be in the
offing as far as the US military presence in Japan and
especially Okinawa is concerned.
Roughly 75
percent of all US troops in Japan are stationed on
Okinawa, and US bases occupy more than 10 percent of the
island's territory. The Japanese government is paying
more than 80 percent of the stationing costs of US
troops, adding up to US$5 billion yearly.
Okinawa's government has yet again asked for the
reduction of the 25,000 troops stationed on the island,
and has also proposed a 15-year limit on the US military
facilities. None of this, however, is an option for the
United States, and the current nuclear crisis in the
Korean Peninsula will make sure that policymakers in
Tokyo won't be overly insistent urging its ally in
Washington to send some of its troops home.
Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi,
however, during a recent visit to Okinawa promised to
have a word with Washington on overdue troop reductions
on Okinawa. She, like many other leading politicians
from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) before
her, expressed "sympathy" with Okinawa's population when
meeting with the island's governor, Keiichi Inamine.
"It is important to make progress on the
question of US bases, and the issue must be dealt with
not only as an issue of Okinawa, but of Japan as a
whole," she suggested, remarks that are unlikely to
raise any eyebrows in the Pentagon.
In fact,
Washington does not have to worry about too much
pressure coming from Tokyo to reduce the US military
presence on Okinawa. The Japanese government has not
come up with a "specific approach" to reduce the troop
presence in Okinawa, the Financial Times quoted a US
government official as saying recently, confirming the
suspicions of those in Japan who think policymakers in
Tokyo couldn't really care less about far-away Okinawa.
The Japanese government does, every once in a
while, suggest the relocation of US troops within Asia,
hoping that maybe the Philippines would agree to
re-establish US military bases that were closed less
than a decade ago. Although Manila's enthusiasm about
hosting the US military is unsurprisingly very limited
at best, scenarios about reopening bases in the
Philippines and elsewhere in Asia have indeed been
discussed for some time on and off the record in the
Pentagon.
While Japan's public wants fewer US
troops on its territory, Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi on the other hand has decided to support the
planned US military buildup in the region, apparently
eager to flex the country's military muscles. In the
latest move to support the Pentagon's hardline politics
toward North Korea, Koizumi is considering the
deployment of two Aegis high-tech warships in the Sea of
Japan in case Pyongyang is getting serious about
resuming "missile tests" over East Asia.
The
Aegis vessels are able to track and shoot down missiles
and - not really a surprise - Pyongyang sees this as yet
another Japanese "provocation" bringing the chances of
meaningful talks with Japan to "close to zero", KCNA
warns. Japan's Defense Agency remains unimpressed and is
prepared to let the country's navy take care of incoming
rogue missiles, claiming that "the chances are rising
that North Korea will resume test-firing ballistic
missiles as part of its brinkmanship".
The
Japanese government as it turns out is already thinking
ahead, and has filed a contingency plan threatening to
implement economic sanctions against North Korea should
one of its missile "tests" end on Japanese territory.
While the US very likely would prefer more belligerent
rhetoric from its ally in Tokyo, the Japanese plan does
not threaten military retaliation against North Korea.
This week it did appear, briefly, that Japan was
ready to leap to the Americans' defense after the US
Central Intelligence Agency claimed it had evidence that
North Korea possessed a missile capable of reaching the
west coast of the United States and was ready to conduct
test-firings. "Japan would launch a military strike
against North Korea if Tokyo had firm evidence that the
Stalinist state was ready to attack with ballistic
missiles," declared Defense Agency Chief Shigeru Ishiba,
according to Reuters. "Japan could regard the process of
injecting fuel into a missile as the start of military
attack."
However, the official Japanese line on
the CIA report was much more subdued, and Ishiba himself
later said: "I don't think the danger of launches of
North Korean missiles is pressing."
One reason
the North Koreans are not likely to conduct missile
tests or make war on anyone in the immediate future is
that they will be much too busy preparing for Dear
Leader Kim Jong-il's birthday this Sunday.
Traditionally, February 16 is associated with all kinds
of "natural wonders" surrounding Kim's birthday. A
miracle of some kind might indeed be helpful in
convincing him and his opponents in Washington to
replace the current saber-rattling with dialogue.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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