| |
Koizumi trades Baghdad for
Pyongyang
By J Sean Curtin
Pacific Forum CSIS
After
months of walking a delicate tightrope of neutrality on
the Iraq crisis, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi has finally taken a firm policy position in
favor of the United States. Even though polls show that
the overwhelming majority of Japanese are against a
US-led attack on Iraq, Koizumi is exhibiting surprising
confidence as he embarks on his greatest political
gamble.
Backing a war against Iraq would seem to
go against the tenets of Koizumi's popularist
inclinations, but his current strategy is based on a
careful set of calculations in a high stakes game of
international policy-poker. In essence, the prime
minister is risking his political future on the
assumption that his weak hand on Iraq can be
successfully trumped by a winning policy ace on North
Korea.
While ordinary Japanese are definitely
concerned about a looming attack on distant Iraq, it is
nearby North Korea that dominates national discourse.
From the sales clerk to the company president, it is the
threat of an unstable and nuclear North Korea that
deeply troubles most ordinary Japanese. Herein likes the
heart of Koizumi's survival strategy. Koizumi has
calculated that the national mood is such that he can
successfully implement a highly unpopular Iraq policy by
eventually trading it off against the more pressing
North Korean issue. While he knows that about 80 percent
of Japanese are against a war with Iraq, he also knows
that nearly 100 percent are frightened by the recent
bellicose statements coming out of North Korea. Any kind
of policy resolution on the Korea crisis will require
the assistance and active support of the United States.
Koizumi will argue that Japan has no alternative but to
support the United States fully on Iraq, if it expects
help solving the North Korea issue.
While the
Japanese public might find this tradeoff distasteful, it
has the merit of being an understandable and salable
policy to people genuinely worried about Pyongyang's
intentions. This situation means that unlike many of his
lackluster predecessors, Koizumi should be able to
deliver Washington vital support when it is needed, as
well as display some leadership on the world stage.
While still trying to sustain the illusion of an
even-handed policy approach on Iraq, Koizumi has now
resolutely nailed his colors to the US banner. Japan
demonstrated its clear support for the US position at
the open debate of the United Nations Security Council
on February 18. In that session, Japan acted as a
standard bearer for the United States. During the
proceedings, only Japan and Australia declared resolute
support for the position of the US and Britain. The vast
majority of other countries backed an alternative
approach that emphasized a peaceful resolution to the
crisis and delaying the use of force.
Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) secretary general Yamasaki Taku
has also suggested that Japan must support Washington,
even without a new resolution. He said Iraq will "not
accept inspections the moment it hears there will be no
use of force". This strongly indicates that Japan would
support a US offensive without a second UN resolution
backing the use of force. Foreign Minister Kawaguchi
Yoriko and Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda Yasuo have
attempted to conceal the new policy by stating that
because discussion is still ongoing, it is too early to
actually clarify the precise Japanese position on Iraq.
Koizumi has joined in by denying that Japan would
automatically support a unilateral attack on Iraq.
However, Japan's actions at the Security Council make
its real intentions clear.
The clarification of
Japan's policy at the UN debate brought a torrent of
fierce criticism from all corners of the political
spectrum, especially from Koizumi's rivals and enemies
within his own party, the LDP. The media have been
inundated with harsh comments by prominent LDP
politicians unhappy with Koizumi's stance.
The
main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has
sensed a chance to make political capital and has
adopted an aggressive anti-war stance. DPJ leader Kan
Naoto accused the government of "acting contrary to the
wishes of most of the Japanese people". DPJ policy
affairs chief Edano Yukio described Koizumi as
"double-tongued" for announcing Japan's position at the
UN while refusing to do so in the Diet (Japanese
parliament). Many elements of the media have also
adopted a skeptical and angry tone.
Yet, in the
middle of this vicious onslaught, Koizumi remains calm.
In the past he has demonstrated that he is a supreme
master at judging the public mood, and this time he must
be banking on his instincts being right.
Of
course, poker on this scale is still a game of chance
and nobody knows what the result will be until all the
cards are on the table. Nevertheless, as Koizumi plays
out the greatest poker hand of his political life, he
must feel that the odds are on his side.
J
Sean Curtin writes a weekly Japanese Social Trends
Series for the Tokyo-based think-tank Global Communications from
Japan
. He
is also a professor at the Japanese Red Cross
University. He can be reached at jeanseancurtin@hotmail.com.This article is posted by permission of
Pacific Forum
CSIS.
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
