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Koizumi
and Japan's Holy Grail
By J Sean Curtin
Like an Arthurian knight after an epic triumph, Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi confidently strode back into the Diet (parliament) on his
return from a round-table meeting with US President George W Bush. With an
amazing new air of self-confidence, he calmly dispatched his political
opponents at the regular prime-ministerial question session. His summit with
Bush has reinvigorated his authority and markedly improved his chances of
remaining in office. During his latest parliamentary performance, Koizumi gave
the impression that he is actually holding office, rather than merely clinging
to it. This is something of a rarity for a Japanese prime minister, whose
political life and power are both characteristically limited.
In September, Koizumi must face re-election as the Liberal Democratic Party's
(LDP) president, a post that enables the holder to assume or retain the
premiership. Unofficially, the competition has already begun with Koizumi's
enemies frantically plotting to steal his crown. However, the Bush summit has
changed the underlying dynamics of the contest and greatly strengthened
Koizumi's hopes of defeating all the pretenders to his throne.
Koizumi appears to have constructed two main re-election strategies, both with
foreign policy issues at their core. The primary plan involves supporting US
reconstruction efforts in Iraq by dispatching military personnel to the region.
This would involve extending the current session of parliament, which is
scheduled to end on June 18. This maneuver would be extremely beneficial to
Koizumi for a number of reasons. First and foremost, it would strengthen his
position by basically allowing him to dominate the political arena in the
run-up to the LDP presidential race in September. Additionally, it would
enhance his ability to concentrate on foreign affairs and deflect public
attention from the abysmal state of the economy. Furthermore, prolonging the
current session would take pressure off the prime minister to reshuffle his
cabinet, a move demanded by his political adversaries. Changing his senior
ministers would make Koizumi look weak while strengthening his rivals.
There are two major hurdles to overcome before the life of the current
parliament can be lengthened. First, extending Diet business requires a
legitimate and convincing reason. If not, the public would too easily interpret
it as a highly cynical ploy for political advantage. Second, there is
tremendous opposition to the idea from Koizumi's powerful political foes who
believe that such a move would make the Koizumi re-election juggernaut almost
unstoppable. These elements can be relied upon to do everything in their power
to block such a measure.
Before visiting the United States, supporters of Koizumi's re-election bid
floated the possibility of an extension to parliamentary proceedings for the
passing of emergency legislation on Iraq. The proposed bill would be designed
to assist in the rebuilding of the country and allow Japanese Self-Defense
Force (SDF) personnel to be dispatched to aid in reconstruction. As this was
only a suggestion, the prime minister himself remained tight-lipped about the
idea. His opponents were quick to denounce it as a crude re-election tactic.
This is where the rendezvous with Bush fits into the plot. The president was
keen to show his appreciation for Koizumi's staunch support over the Iraq
invasion. He met Koizumi on arrival in Texas and personally took him for a long
car tour of his Crawford ranch. The two leaders then held two hours of poolside
talks with just their interpreters present. We can only speculate about the
content of these discussions, but no doubt Bush found some means to express his
gratitude to Koizumi.
At the subsequent press conference, Bush told Koizumi that visible Japanese
cooperation would be very useful in the efforts to reconstruct Iraq. Bush
strongly implied that he expected Japan to provide a tangible physical presence
besides financial assistance. Without saying it directly, he was in essences
asking Japan to send the SDF to Iraq, something that would require new laws and
an extension of parliament. Bush went on to say that he trusted Koizumi to
decide on the appropriate contribution for Japan to make toward helping rebuild
Iraq. By a strange coincidence, the president's suggestion was exactly the same
course of action Koizumi supporters had also been advocating in Japan. Despite
smiling profusely, Koizumi was somewhat vague in his response to Bush, but did
mention "contributions befitting Japan's capability".
Any new legislation would require about 40-50 days to pass through the Diet and
entail extending the current session of parliament to some time in August.
Conveniently, this would also be a few weeks before the LDP presidential race.
So far, Koizumi has said that he is still considering whether or not to send
the SDF to Iraq as Bush has requested. He has stated that no decision will be
made until after the June 1-3 Group of Eight summit in Evian, France. This may
be because he needs more time to overcome strong resistance to the idea from
within his own party or because he wishes to give the impression that he really
is considering the matter. However, it seems difficult to believe that Bush
would have publicly asked Koizumi to send the SDF if he thought it went against
the PM's wishes. Furthermore, it is even harder to believe that Koizumi would
refuse such a request which so miraculously converges with his own personal
re-election strategy. Koizumi should have little trouble selling this policy to
the public as he can justify it as a necessary measure Japan must take if it is
to get the US support it needs to deal with a belligerent North Korea. After
all, Japan can hardly turn the president of the United States down when his
help is so needed to deal with a dangerous neighbor.
North Korea policy itself forms the other essential strand in the Koizumi
re-election game plan. It is an issue that is also set to dominate the
political agenda in the coming weeks and months with talks scheduled with South
Korea, the US and China. If for any reason Koizumi fails to prolong the current
Diet session, then North Korea alone will form the backbone of his attempts to
distract the electorate away from the country's economic woes. On the other
hand, if the emergency Iraq bill is put forward, then national political debate
will be completely dominated by two foreign-policy issues. This is exactly what
Koizumi needs to ensure he has the best chance of keeping the party presidency
and retaining the Holy Grail of Japanese politics. Unless his opponents can
somehow unearth a scandal to topple him from Camelot, Koizumi looks likely to
remain at Japan's helm for the next few years.
J Sean Curtin writes a weekly Japanese Social Trends Series for the
Tokyo-based think-tank Global
Communications from Japan. He is also a professor at the Japanese Red
Cross University.
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