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The unbeatable
Koizumi
By Yukiko Hiizumi
For
a couple of years in the early to mid-'90s, Japan had
genuine coalition governments. But that's long
forgotten. Things are back to normal: the president of
the dominant, ever-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
automatically becomes prime minister of the coalition
government in which other parties play a marginal
role.
The LDP once again is due to hold a
presidential election this coming September and, judging
from the current intra-party situation, there exists no
threat to speak of to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's
re-election. The present government, some ministerial
posts reshuffled but led by Koizumi, will remain in
place. The latest issue of one of Japan's most popular
magazines, Shukan Bunshun (Weekly Bunshun), reports that
efforts by Koizumi opponents to find a credible
challenger have come up empty-handed. The magazine also
worries that, if Koizumi suddenly passed away, Japanese
politics would be thrown into a state of disarray.
It is not as if the LDP does not have any
alternatives to Koizumi; the problem is that the public
has lost confidence in most of them. Taku Yamazaki,
Koizumi's reform-policy comrade-in-arms for more than a
decade (the "Y" in the fabled "YKK" reform triad; Kato,
the other "K", is now a disgraced ex-parliamentarian),
was once believed to be a likely successor. As secretary
general of the LDP, he has been at the center of party
management and at the same time lent strong support to
Koizumi's policies every step of the way. But, alas, he
got involved in a scandalous affair with a lady and the
Japanese, at least in public, are not as forgiving as
Americans to such shenanigans - and Yamazaki isn't as
good a stand-up actor and liar as former president Bill
Clinton, either.
Another candidate is former
secretary general Hiromu Nonaka, a strong opponent of
Koizumi's economic reforms, which he regards as
destructive of Japan's national wealth. Criticizing
Koizumi's economic policies does not disqualify Nonaka
in the public eye; the policies haven't shown much
success. But taking an overly friendly stance toward
North Korea does. The fact that he is 77 is no help
either - even in a land where an octogenarian functions
as finance minister.
Then there are former
transport minister Shizuka Kamei and another former LDP
secretary general, Makoto Koga, who have been
collaborating with Nonaka accusing Koizumi of utter
economic policy failure. However, as all three gentlemen
are known for their close ties to the bankrupt and
corrupt construction industry and their connections with
the criminal underworld, they have failed to convince
the public of their worth as premiership candidates.
The president of the LDP used to be appointed as
a result of deals among the party's factions reached
late night behind closed doors in posh five-star hotel
suites. If that system were still in place at present
and the anti-Koizumi factions got their act together,
Kamei or Koga might well emerge as winners in September.
Koizumi, who has vowed to destroy the very party he
leads if it persists in opposition to reform, wouldn't
have much of a chance. But that system is no more. Party
members nationwide vote for party president. A
candidate's media image, not his factional support is
what counts. Who knows Kamei's or Koga's face? In
contrast, who doesn't know the dashing, slim-built,
long-silver-haired - and single - Jun-chan (Koizumi's
nickname)?
On that score, only Tokyo Governor
Shintaro Ishihara, recently re-elected in a landslide
vote, could give Koizumi serious competition. Before
leaving the LDP to run for governor in 1999 as an
independent, he had served in parliament and as minister
of transport. Before that, he was a hugely popular
writer, making his first mark with the prize-winning
novel Seasons of the Sun (Taiyo no Kisetsu), then
- as co-author with Sony's Akio Morita - with the
defiant 1989 book The Japan That Can Say No (to
America). Ishihara is an outspoken nationalist and
populist ("Tax the banks!"), tough on North Korea and
China. He says he will make "Tokyo the starting point
for the reform of Japan" and has not denied ambitions to
becoming prime minister.
But how? He would have
to re-enter the LDP and build political alliances. He
has met on frequent occasions with Kamei and Nonaka. But
how can a reformer build alliances with political
dinosaurs and still keep his reform image? It's a
practical impossibility. It won't happen - in any case,
not now.
And there's yet another - and perhaps
the most compelling - reason why Koizumi will remain
party president for another term. General elections will
be held by mid-September 2004 at the latest. LDP
candidates need votes. The once again highly popular
Koizumi (latest ratings are over 50 percent again after
dropping into the low 40s early this year) can deliver
them - and to hell with political disagreements. First
things first.
Last, there's the issue of the
Komei Party (Komei-to), the LDP's main coalition
partner. The party is based on a Buddhist sect called
Sokagakkai with about 10 million members. This religious
group is under the supreme direction of its honorary
president Daisaku Ikeda. To put it differently, the
party is Ikeda's political instrument. The Sokagakkai
has the power to have roughly 50 individuals elected as
members of parliament on a perennial basis. Moreover, it
has about 30,000 members in many constituencies across
Japan. Many LDP members have become MPs thanks to
Sokagakkai support.
Komei-to used to be close to
Nonaka, but that relationship has recently faded.
Sokagakkai suddenly has started supporting Koizumi's
tougher policy toward North Korea, considered to be
totally at variance with Nonaka's soft-touch line. Ikeda
reads political tea leaves and reads them well. In the
past, it had been his fervent wish for Komei-to to
become the ruling party. But as a de facto religious
party, it never managed to grow much beyond its
Sokagakkai base. So, Ikeda changed tack and made
Komei-to a partner of the LDP to be able to exert direct
influence on the government. His greatest worry is to
see his party end up as an impotent opposition party
again. Switching policy direction on North Korea is an
easy price to pay to remain in Koizumi's good graces. In
turn, Koizumi gains internal LDP support from members
whose re-election depends on Komei-to support.
Koizumi at present appears to be unstoppable. He
is riding high and sitting pretty. Is it good for Japan?
That's another issue. Koizumi is a simple-minded,
stubborn, economically ignorant political (and personal)
loner. Good at politics, bad at policy. That wouldn't be
so bad if he had good advisors and listened to them. But
he has few advisors and pays attention to fewer as the
economy is continuing to founder. He'll stay in power
for now. The LDP won't drag him down. The economy may.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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