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Koizumi soars on winds of
war
By J
Sean Curtin
TOKYO - Like the twisting threads of
a Shakespearean plot, the political fortunes of the
Japanese prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, and his
British counterpart, Tony Blair, have been buffeted by
the same harsh winds of war. The Japanese media have
been intrigued by the parallels and contrasts between
the two leaders, who have both faced tough challenges
arising out of their support for the US-led invasion of
Iraq. Unlike Blair, the much-maligned Koizumi has
emerged from the war greatly strengthened and is now on
course to lead his party to victory in an anticipated
election slated for November 9. Yet again, the
perennially underrated Koizumi has proved that he is one
of the most gifted political tacticians on the world
stage.
In the opening act of this geopolitical
drama, the many anti-Koizumi elements in the Japanese
press were scathing about the prime minister's
international profile. One frequently used line of
attack was to contrast the Japanese leader with Tony
Blair. Comparisons were made with Blair's almost
breathtaking forthrightness and Koizumi's polished
indecisiveness. The British leader's clarity of purpose
was used to ridicule Koizumi's initial vagueness about
supporting the Iraq war. Many a prewar editorial
concluded that while courage would sustain Blair, a lack
of leadership might lead to Koizumi's downfall. Yet, as
in all of William Shakespeare's greatest works, the dogs
of war devour presumption and on this occasion the
prophecies of newspaper editors.
Before the
conflict began, both Koizumi and Blair knew they were
risking their entire political fortunes on a swift
victory in Iraq. The critical dilemma each man faced was
how to overcome intense domestic anti-war sentiment
while meaningfully supporting US President George W
Bush's efforts to topple the evil Iraqi dictator. For
Koizumi, the scale of the task was particularly
daunting, with nearly 80 percent of Japanese opposed to
war, while in the United Kingdom the figure was about
50-60 percent. Each prime minister was to test the most
essential attribute of any political leader: the ability
to read the public mood and predict its course.
Blair chose to sell energetically the idea of
military action to a highly skeptical British public by
emphasizing the need to disarm the brutal tyrant of his
weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Appearing before
countless television audiences, Blair passionately
defended his stance. Outside on the streets of London,
millions marched in protest, but Blair stood firm. He
calculated that once British troops were in action, the
nation would fall behind him.
In the antithesis
to the Blair approach, Koizumi somberly sought to
justify his actions as an unavoidable necessity needed
to secure US support for dealing with a bellicose and
erratic North Korea. Rather than debating the
righteousness of the cause in Iraq, Koizumi gave the
impression that Japan simply had no choice. North Korea
greatly assisted him in this task by providing a
continuous stream of aggressive rhetoric.
The
amazing speed of military victory in Iraq gave both
leaders an initial boost in the polls, but for Blair the
afterglow was soon to fade. Despite all his brilliance,
Blair miscalculated the deep-seated level of opposition
to the war. The subsequent failure to uncover any WMD
has seriously eroded his standing and as a result the
latest polls now show that the majority of British
people no longer trust him. Unless WMD are found
reasonably soon, Blair may be forced to resign.
On the other side of the stage, Koizumi's
much-criticized stance has been totally vindicated and
the greatest gamble of his life has hit the political
jackpot. His poll ratings have soared above 50 percent
and he now dominates the political landscape. Recent
stock-market rallies and a cunning manipulation of the
political agenda have almost ensured that he will win
the anticipated November 9 election. This will enable
him to remain in office for an additional two to three
years. This is an extraordinary feat when one considers
that most Japanese leaders only last a year or two in
the post. It certainly illustrates that his multitude of
media critics have completely underestimated his
political skills.
While the curtain in the final
act of this global drama has yet to fall, Koizumi is
already looking certain to retain his crown in the
forthcoming election. As for Blair, his present
predicament contains a deep vein of Shakespearean
tragedy, which he may find inescapable. Perhaps Charles
Dickens' immortal line "It was the best of times, it was
the worst of times" best captures the current political
fates of Koizumi and Blair respectively.
J
Sean Curtin writes a weekly social-trends series for
the Tokyo-based think-tank Japanese
Institute of Global Communications.
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