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Japan: The day the dragon
fell
By J Sean Curtin
A turbulent decade has
now elapsed since the combined forces of Japan's
opposition parties briefly captured the slippery reins
of power. On August 9, 1993, the crusading Morihiro
Hosokawa became Japan's 35th prime minister and the
nation's first non-Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader
in 38 years. As the 10-year anniversary passes, it now
seems that this event changed the course of Japanese
politics. Its aftershocks are still vigorously reshaping
the political landscape.
In August 1993, it felt
as if Hosokawa and his comrades-in-arms had finally
slain the mighty LDP dragon. In the initial euphoria,
legend's warning about the near indestructibility of
dragons was ignored. Within a year, the overconfident
conquerors once again became the vanquished and their
bright visions for a new political order faded like a
comet in the firmament. However, in true epic fashion,
that was not the end of the saga, just its dramatic
opening chapter. Over the past few years, it has become
increasingly clear that the legacy of the opposition's
solitary battlefield triumph is far more significant
than was originally estimated.
Arguably, the
most lasting achievement of the Hosokawa premiership was
to set a new course for the way Japan is governed. His
administration was the genesis for the decade-long
pattern of multiparty coalitions. In concrete terms,
Hosokawa's eight-month tenure in office is the newest
link in the evolutionary chain of Japanese politics.
Although it was not realized at the time, the Hosokawa
regime also marked the extinction point of LDP dominion.
Indeed, the LDP only sneaked back into power by
forming an unholy coalition with its erstwhile sworn
enemies in the Socialist Party. To regain office, the
LDP was forced to renounce its former self-proclaimed
right to rule alone. Since June 1994, it has reluctantly
accepted the need to share power with others. At
present, it governs in conjunction with two other
parties, New Komeito and the New Conservative Party.
The electorate has grown use to this type of
arrangement and opinion polls have indicated that the
public now prefers coalition administrations to the
previous form of single-party government. This is a
significant shift and means that for the foreseeable
future it is unlikely either the LDP or any other party
will be able to govern alone. A Kyodo News survey this
month illustrates the public mood, revealing that 55
percent of people prefer the LDP to be in a coalition,
with a mere 14 percent wanting them at the helm alone.
While the introduction of multiparty government
is arguably Hosokawa's foremost accomplishment, it is by
no means the only one. His assertive style of
premiership has also had an immense impact on the
public's perception of leadership, creating a demand for
a new brand of dynamic Japanese premier. Hosokawa laid
the foundations for the current prime minister,
Junichiro Koizumi, to develop his own highly
individualistic style of leadership.
Hosokawa's
relaxed people-friendly manner was extremely well
received. Today he is still fondly remembered as a
popular prime minister, while most holders of the office
are not remembered at all. Traditionally, a Japanese
premier was meant to combine the vagueness of the Delphi
oracle with the charisma of a door-to-door shoe
salesman. Both Hosokawa and Koizumi have forever altered
this image and in the process greatly enhanced Japan's
global profile.
A less quantifiable but equally
important aspect of the 1993 regime change was its
psychological impact on the politicians. For the LDP,
defeat and subsequent coalition-alliances have
constrained the powers of the once almighty faction
leaders. The emergence of Koizumi as prime minister is a
further sign of the powerful evolutionary trend sweeping
through the LDP. This is threatening the party's many
political dinosaurs with extinction.
For the
opposition forces, their 10-month stint in office was a
tremendous psychological boost. It proved they could be
a viable alternative government and gave them a simple
"unity is strength" formula for future success. The
problem has been that since losing power, unity has been
a scare commodity. However, recently things have changed
and the opposition is regaining the kind of momentum
that once propelled them into office.
Last
month, the Liberal Party decided to merge into the
largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ). This is a move guaranteed to enhance the DPJ's
electoral prospects. Political analysts now predict that
the party could pose a serious threat to the current
LDP-led coalition, especially if another opposition
party, the Social Democratic Party, teams up with the
enlarged DPJ.
At recent political rallies, the
leader of the Liberal Party, Ichiro Ozawa, and his DPJ
counterpart, Naoto Kan, have both been invoking the name
of Hosokawa and promising to carry on his work if they
win the forthcoming election. As the politicians begin
to write the next chapter in this unpredictable tale, it
seems that Hosokawa is already becoming a figure of
legend.
J Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM
fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese
Institute of Global Communications.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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