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Koizumi and the challenge of
conformity
By Richard Hanson
TOKYO - Samuel Maverick, an early-19th-century
Texas rancher, left his mark (actually his name) by
breaking rules and refusing to brand his cattle.
Writers in the English language were quick to
peg that name on Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi. There he was, a fiery politician seeking
bureaucratic reform, battling corruption, and at the
same time gathering a large following of admirers
(mostly women). There he was, the good-looking lone-wolf
outsider battling the established (and assumed
corrupted) "mainstream" politics of the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP).
He, of course, was the
elected leader of the LDP. And on Monday he threw his
hat into the battle to be re-elected president of the
party. And the odds are very much in his favor.
The question is whether Koizumi is also
scuttling the mantle of an outsider and, inevitably some
say, slipping into the mainstream himself, where he will
be gobbled up and spat out as a mere shadow of his
crusading self.
On the face of it, Koizumi has
already allowed himself to nibbled at by factions and
faction leaders who two years ago were vowing to battle
the reformist prime minister to the death. There were
bitter battles over plans to privatize the huge postal
system, a hotbed of political vested interests (more
influential, some say, than the farm lobby).
That image of a maverick strengthened in one
confrontation in which Koizumi said he would "crush" the
LDP (remember, this is his party) if party factions
tried to "crush" his postal-reform legislation. That was
heady stuff. But it also left him dangerously isolated.
This was partly remedied by offers of serious support
for his reform agenda from big business, in the form of
the Japan Business Federation (known as Nippon
Keidanren) and its influential chairman, Hiroshi Okuda
(also chairman of Toyota Motors).
But the prime
minister also learned that compromise with the
mainstream was inevitable if his reform movement were to
remain alive. Koizumi was also helped by the close
relations he developed with US President George W Bush
in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, attacks on
New York City and the Pentagon and his subsequent
support for Bush's war in Afghanistan. The Japanese
prime minister's staunch backing of the US invasion of
Iraq last March further boosted the Bush-Koizumi
alliance.
Support of the US-Japan relationship
has long been a key to longevity as prime minister in
Japan, especially in times when Japan feels vulnerable
to security threats in its own back yard. This was
evident during the past few tense months of
confrontation and threats involving North Korea.
The real evidence that Koizumi was slipping into
the mainstream came shockingly late last week as the
jockeying for who will run for against him for the
presidency of the LDP heated up.
True
Koizumi-the-Reformer fans probably blanched when they
saw one of the heaviest heavyweights in the 100-member
Hashimoto Faction, Mikio Aoki (who leads the faction's
42-member-strong Upper House contingency), embraced the
prime minister as its candidate for the presidency.
(During the past few weeks, the LDP's factions receded
from view almost entirely. Koizumi is not a faction
leader, and has distanced himself from his own faction
affiliation.)
That virtually broke the back of
the organized opposition to Koizumi's re-election as the
campaign, which ends with a vote of party members who
are also elected lawmakers in the Diet (parliament).
Party election rules have been tightened since Koizumi
won almost by default in a surge of popular individual
party member (including lots of new females) votes.
This is one way of giving the LDP some semblance
of party unity. Seen from another perspective, Koizumi
let himself be swallowed into the guts of the old guard.
The decision by Aoki was decisive, scattering other
faction groups.
"Believing that [Koizumi] will
tackle economic measures and bring the whole party
together in the effort, I support Koizumi," Aoki was
quoted as saying.
In the end, a former transport
minister in the faction, Takao Fujii, gathered enough
support to be put on the ballot. Two other candidates
threw their hats in the ring. One is a former foreign
minister, Masahiko Komura, who had trouble gathering the
20 votes needed to register as a candidate. The other is
an outspoken former police officer and party policy
chief, Shizuka Kamei, who advocates huge public-works
spending.
The questions that remain are all
about what Koizumi intends to do if he wins a three-year
term as leader of the LDP on September 20. The
speculation is that he will reshuffle his cabinet in
preparation for a general election this year. The focus
will be on who takes over key economic positions.
Of late, the aging Finance Minister Masajuro
Shiokawa has been ill. Mainstream members of the LDP
have been clamoring for the firing of the most visible
of the cabinet officers, Financial Services Minister
Heizo Takenaka, who has steered the battle against
deflation and to clear up the bad-loan problems that
plague the banks.
Whether Koizumi is seen edging
into the mainstream of not is less important, perhaps,
than the fact that Japan's economy and stock market have
been showing healthy signs of growth over the summer.
That is probably worth giving up reputation as a
maverick. And a growing economy is certainly one way of
branding his own sort of mainstream faction for the
Liberal Democratic Party.
(Copyright 2003 Asia
Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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