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Premier's rivals flounder in the
wake
By J Sean Curtin
The surging tide propelling Japanese Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi toward re-election as his
party's president is also sweeping away some of his most
vocal critics. For the past two weeks, Japan's normally
slow-flowing political waters have been transformed into
a treacherous tempest that threatens to capsize an
already listing party power-structure.
In the
eye of the raging storm is the battle for the presidency
of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). As the party is
the dominant force in Japan's governing coalition, its
leader automatically assumes the office of prime
minister. Thus, the stakes in the unfolding high-seas
drama are the political direction of the nation.
Three contenders have stepped aboard to take on
Koizumi, whose current term as LDP president is
expiring. Behind this trio stand some of Koizumi's most
formidable foes. Chief among them is the embittered LDP
power broker Hiromu Nonaka, a former secretary general
of the LDP. He has publicly vowed to sink the Koizumi
premiership. With all the obsessive finality of US
author Herman Melville's doomed Captain Ahab, Nonaka
recently declared that his political life was over and
that his one remaining ambition was to scupper Koizumi's
re-election.
For months it has been an almost
foregone conclusion that Koizumi would retain the LDP
presidency and extend his grip on the premiership for an
additional three years. His masterful use of the
international stage to project an image of dynamic
leadership has kept his popularity ratings high and
shielded him from harsh LDP critics such as Nonaka and
former LDP Policy Research Council chairman Shizuka
Kamei, who also is standing against Koizumi. Despite
months of mutinous rumors and mutterings that the
premier's opponents would unite behind a single
candidate, all Byzantine plots have sunk without a
trace. Just as the enormity of the giant whale in
Melville's novel Moby-Dick scared off attacks
from sane whaling captains, Koizumi's commanding lead in
the opinion polls sapped the courage of all but the most
diehard of opponents. The majority of lawmakers opposing
Koizumi's policies realized that no matter how much they
disagreed with him, to remove such a popular leader
would be political suicide.
The failure of the
anti-Koizumi factions to thrust a dagger in their
enemy's breast has highlighted their declining
influence. Traditionally, to win the LDP presidency and
become prime minister required the backing of various
factions within the party. Before changes to the
electoral system in 1994, LDP faction leaders' power
sprang from their ability to get their members
re-elected. They achieved this by providing them with
financial resources to campaign in the former multi-seat
constituencies. However, a switch from the unwieldy
multi-seat system to a more streamline single-seat
constituency greatly diminished this role, and the clout
of the faction leaders gradually waned.
The
election of Koizumi as party president in April 2001
marked another significant juncture. Koizumi captured
the presidency by casting himself as the outsider who
was beholden to no single faction. This strategy found
great appeal with the rank-and-file party members whose
votes gave Koizumi a landslide victory. Koizumi became
the first LDP prime minister not to deal out cabinet
posts along factional lines. This policy infuriated the
faction chiefs and further undermined their influence.
In the 2001 race Koizumi pledged to smash
factional power, and his re-election would greatly boost
his chance of ultimately achieving this objective. The
current presidential race has inflicted massive damage
on several anti-Koizumi groupings. The hundred-strong
faction nominally led by former prime minister Ryutaro
Hashimoto has been virtually ripped apart by tensions
over Koizumi's re-election. Although the faction is
fielding its own candidate, Takao Fujii, almost all its
42 Upper House members are backing Koizumi, as is the
acting faction head, Kanezo Muraoka.
The
51-member faction led by Mitsuo Horiuchi, chairman of
the LDP's General Council, failed to field a candidate.
Many members will probably vote for Koizumi, as ending
up at the bottom of the ocean with Nonaka is not an
especially appealing prospect.
In the final days
of the campaign, Nonaka's determined efforts to hold
back the Koizumi tide have looked as hopeless as Captain
Ahab's attempt to harpoon the giant whale Moby-Dick.
Even Nonaka's preferred presidential candidate, Takao
Fujii, moderated his criticisms of Koizumi and began to
look like a reluctant Jonah hoping not to be swallowed
by the oncoming whale.
While
Koizumi's re-election will not end factional politics in
Japan, it does mark a further curbing of the influence
these groups once wielded. This should alter the
underlying dynamics of the political decision making
process, placing more power in the hands of the prime
minister. The fallout from the leadership campaign will
most likely lead to a reorganizing of those factions
that opposed the premier, and some will probably
implode. Koizumi is unlikely to shed any tears over this
development, for as D H Lawrence titled his epic
poem, Whales Weep Not
.
J Sean Curtin is a
GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese
Institute of Global Communications.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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