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Only
Koizumi cannot go to China
By J Sean Curtin
At the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Bali,
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi once again ignored a golden
opportunity to mend fences with China. Instead of grasping a carefully
outstretched Chinese hand, Koizumi made it crystal-clear that he intends to
pursue his cavalier "annoy thy neighbor" policy. The continuation of this
strategy will almost certainly lead to a short-term deterioration in
Sino-Japanese relations and may even damage long-term economic ties. For
Koizumi, these tactics will probably lead Beijing to upgrade his current persona
non grata status to that of a permanent pariah.
Despite the present political friction, business and trade between the two
neighbors is booming, and China is now Japan's second-largest trading partner.
However, on the level of mutual understanding, Sino-Japanese bonds have
recently been forging through extremely rough seas. In China, issues relating
to wartime chemical weapons abandon in the country by Japan have reignited
strong anti-Japanese sentiment. The situation has been further inflamed by
recent allegations of a mass orgy incited by Japanese businessmen there on
holiday.
In Japan, the horrific killing of an entire Japanese family by Chinese students
has heightened negative feelings about the country's growing Chinese community,
which is sometimes unfairly stereotyped as consisting primarily of gangsters
and prostitutes. Such a troubling backdrop should have motivated Koizumi to
adopt a conciliatory posture with China, instead he chose a confrontational
one.
At the ASEAN conference, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao took the initiative by
tactfully reaffirming the importance Beijing attaches to forging what it terms
"a good atmosphere between the two nations". Jiabao also offered Koizumi the
prospect of eventually visiting China at "an appropriate time". In other words,
if Koizumi halts provocative actions that inflame Chinese public opinion, it
might be possible for the Chinese leadership to improve ties with Tokyo and
perhaps invite him to the Middle Kingdom.
Yet Koizumi's failure to set foot on Chinese soil since taking office in April
2001- except for a brief visit in October 2001 - dramatically
illustrates how top-level ties have withered under his administration.
Koizumi's embarrassing predicament looked particularly exposed during 2003, a
year which marked the 25th anniversary of a peace treaty between Japan and
China. During the year just about every major Japanese political figure, save
the premier himself, was wined and dined in Beijing. Even the leader of the
main opposition Democratic Party of Japan, Naoto Kan, received the red-carpet
treatment when he became the first Japanese politician to meet with China's new
president, Hu Jintao. Koizumi has only briefly met Hu on the sidelines of
international gatherings
At the heart of all Koizumi's China woes lies his highly publicized pilgrimages
to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, where 14 high-ranking Japanese war
criminals are enshrined along with the nation's war dead. Beijing takes the
view that paying homage at a shrine that is strongly connected with Japan's
wartime regime reflects how its current leaders truly interpret the country's
past aggression against China. For ordinary Chinese people, the Yasukuni Shrine
is a powerful symbol of Japan's militaristic era.
Koizumi has visited Yasukuni every year since taking office, igniting Chinese
outrage on all three occasions. This year four cabinet ministers also made
high-profile trips. Koizumi's initial 2001 outing was the first by a serving
Japanese premier since Yasuhiro Nakasone made a visit back in 1985. Opinion
surveys show that most Japanese do not approve of their prime minister's yearly
jaunt to Yasukuni and realize it offends China. This makes Koizumi's
undiplomatic actions even more difficult to justify.
Recently the Chinese foreign minister, Li Zhaoxing, publicly reminded Koizumi
that as Japan's leader, he must consider the feelings of the Chinese people
before visiting the controversial shrine. The Chinese Ambassador to Tokyo, Wu
Dawei, has been more forthright, simply demanding to know, "Why does Mr Koizumi
continue to worship at the Yasukuni Shrine where Class A war criminals are
enshrined?"
The day after Premier Wen's politely worded overture, Koizumi told reports at
the ASEAN conference that he still intends to pay homage at the shrine every
year. As in the past, he defied logic and justified his actions by saying,
"Visiting Yasukuni is simply natural, and it can't possibly harm Sino-Japanese
relations."
In an attempt to overcome the impasse created by the shrine, a government
advisory panel was set up to examine the subject. Last December, it recommended
building a new secular memorial to the war dead, but strong opposition from
conservative politicians and the Japan Association for the Families of the War
Dead have practically buried the idea. Some ultra-right-wing groups have also
launched a campaign to block any future attempt to build a separate memorial to
honor the war dead. These developments do not bode well for a successful
resolution of the issue. It seems likely that the Yasukuni Shrine will firmly
remain a source of bilateral tension for some years to come.
In various writings, the late US president Richard Nixon acknowledged that many
years spent accumulating strong anti-communist credentials enabled him to make
a historic visit to Chairman Mao Zedong's China. Koizumi's actions strongly
indicate that he is attempting to craft a mirror-image version of this approach
in which his impeccable track record for offending Chinese public opinion
forever excludes him from the country.
According to the popular US science-fiction series Star Trek, in the
far-flung future "Only Nixon could go to China" will become a well-known
interstellar proverb. If Japan is unlucky, its current leader may provide the
genesis for its antithesis: "Only Koizumi could not go to China." If Koizumi
ever attains such proverbial immortality, it will be achieved at an immensely
high cost for his country.
In reality, the only concrete result that can possibly come out of Koizumi's
current antagonistic China policy is long-term and totally unnecessary damage
to Sino-Japanese relations. Unless Koizumi sees the light, it will take years
to undo the damage his premiership has caused.
J Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based
Japanese Institute of Global Communications.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact
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