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Japan votes, the world
yawns
By Purnendra Jain
ADELAIDE - The Japanese people go to the polls
on Sunday to decide who rules them for the next four
years. Being the world's second-largest economy and one
of the leading lights of democracy in Asia, it would not
be unreasonable to expect that interest in the electoral
results would be high throughout the region and indeed
globally. What happens in Japan in the next four years
should have great economic and political implications
for the region and the international community.
But both regional and global media are pretty
slack on stories about the forthcoming elections in
Japan. This is very different from the1980s and early
1990s, when Japan grabbed headlines in most media. What
has changed?
For a start, the economy is still
struggling despite some signs of recovery. No new policy
directions have emerged despite much talk of Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi's reformist orientation. Nor
has Japan taken any new initiative in world politics
worth the news; it has become simply a follower nation,
apparently dancing to the tune of the United States. Its
domestic- and foreign-policy bankruptcy is too obvious.
With no major domestic policy to redirect its
sagging economy and little initiatives on the
international front, it is no wonder Japan's profile is
so low.
Moreover, Japanese politics and
elections lack the kind of spectacle, political
enthusiasm and festivities that one witnesses, for
example, in the United States during presidential
elections or in countries such as India, where almost
everyone becomes immersed in politicking at general
elections. In Japan, fewer people turn out on an
election day as trust in politics and politicians
remains low.
Japanese election campaigning style
remains unchanged: white gloves, truck-top loudspeakers
and politicians pleading for votes outside crowded urban
railway stations at peak hours. In semi-urban and rural
areas, family connections, workplace canvassing and
personal obligations coupled with unethical practices
(wining and dining or even cash for votes) continue.
Television stations and their anchors ask the
same questions of politicians they have been asking for
years - about reform, economy, unemployment, corruption
and so on - all boring questions with even more boring
answers and no results.
Elections are about
change and alternation in government bringing fresh
ideas, new initiatives and political enthusiasm. Sadly,
Japan is a big exception. The same political party has
ruled for most of the postwar period. Only once since
its formation in 1955 was the Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) out of power, and then only for a brief period in
1993. When it did not have enough numbers in the lower
house of parliament to form government on its own, it
promptly recruited other willing parties to form a
coalition, as it has done in the past several years.
Even the infusion of new blood failed to halt the
sclerosis.
When non-LDP political parties formed
government in 1993, they introduced new electoral rules
in the hope that the changes would lead to bipolar
competition and a two-party system. While this has not
happened thus far, some commentators say the signs are
strong now in favor of a near two-party system and there
is a real possibility of alternation in power.
Although various surveys conducted by newspapers
and other agencies report that the ruling coalition will
easily win a majority on Sunday, Koizumi is aiming to
win a simple majority for his own LDP, that is, 241
seats in a 480-member Lower House. The LDP was forced to
form an alliance with the Buddhist Komeito Party and
another minor party because it did not obtain a majority
to form government in its own right in the last three
general elections.
It appears likely that the
ruling coalition will form government for another four
years and Koizumi will be reappointed prime minister
because of his presidential position within the LDP.
However, as the adage goes, a day in politics is a long
time. So it is difficult to say what the final results
will be, especially as close to 30 percent of voters
remain uncommitted. They have the potential to change
the political picture of Japan hugely when they register
their vote on Sunday.
Before this election
campaign, the opposition remained largely fragmented and
the LDP and its allies felt little challenge from those
on the opposite side of parliament. However, this has
changed with the recent merger of the Liberal Party, led
by former LDP heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa, with the
Democratic Party. After internal conflict and some
political difficulties for its leader, Naoto Kan now
seems to be in control of party matters and is pushing
the case for his Democratic Party with every type of
ammunition at his command.
Kan is a
first-generation politician who began his political
career in 1979 through citizen-based movements and has
since built his reputation through innovative ideas and
policy initiatives. As the health and welfare minister
of a coalition government in the mid-1990s, he made his
mark by his courageous decision in handling HIV (the
human immunodeficiency virus that can cause AIDS)
contamination cases. He offered a full-scale public
apology and promised to guarantee compensation to
infected patients. He built considerable political trust
among ordinary Japanese.
Now Kan is making bold
policy statements and has even issued a party manifesto
setting out the policy his party would adopt if it wins
government. For example, it calls for a new pension
system funded by tax revenue. Common sense tells us that
a proposal for a tax increase at election times could be
political suicide, but Kan has raised the possibility of
increasing the consumption tax. He has also promised to
make highways toll-free and abolish government subsidies
on highway projects, an end to the pork-barrel political
system. All these proposals have been given big
thumbs-up by voters and the party's position in surveys
is improving by the day.
Political developments
in Japan may now be moving in the right direction.
However, whether ordinary people and interest groups,
especially those who benefit from their close ties with
the LDP, are ready for a radical political change is
unclear. The answer, as suggested by newspaper surveys,
seems to be "no" at this stage. But if the majority of
uncommitted voters swing to the revamped and larger
Democratic Party, there is a small chance of Japan again
making headlines in the global media. If not, we will
have to live with the same dull, colorless and
uninspiring Japanese political landscape for some years
to come.
Purnendra Jain is professor
of Japanese studies at Adelaide University's Center for
Asian Studies in Australia and also serves as president
of the Japanese Studies Association of Australia.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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