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Japan prepares to pick the
winners
By Richard Hanson
TOKYO - After the high-decibel
political-campaign sound trucks go quiet Saturday
evening in Tokyo, all that will be left to decide is who
will wake up Monday morning as the leader of Japan.
There are two basic options. Pick one.
There is the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP), with its popular leader Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi, who currently rules the country in a coalition
smaller than the one George W Bush has in occupied Iraq.
One member of his three-party grouping, the New Komeito,
is associated with Japan's most intensely political
religion, the Sokka Gakkai. The other one, the New
Conservative Party, is so small it could disappear for
lack of votes. It is generally believed that the LDP's
best chance of winning depends a lot on the very
well-organized support of the religious group found in
every nook and cranny of Japan.
Then there is
the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), a party that looks
almost like the ruling LDP because it is partly made up
of ex-LDP members. The big difference is that until very
recently very few people thought the DPJ had any chance
to beat the LDP. This is because it was busy beating
itself up. It is rallying behind the leadership of Naoto
Kan, a good-looking politician with good liberal
credentials but a thin power base. The DPJ promotes the
concept of a two-party system in Japan, an idea that is
supported basically by the DPJ.
The biggest
difference between the LDP and the DPJ is power. Koizumi
has proved to be a hard-nosed believer in winning so he
can stay in power for another three years, and thus go
down in history as one of Japan's longest-serving
leaders. There is little real energy being put into
reform goals. Those will come along if the LDP wins.
The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled since
1955, with only one short break in the early 1990s. Its
members fight with one another fiercely, mostly through
the personal factions that Koizumi had to suppress
(temporarily) to win a solid re-election victory as
party president in September.
But, as one writer
put it, the "the flexible nature of the LDP" has allowed
the party to survive for decades. The party has a higher
degree of tolerance from partnerships, notably with the
former Socialist Party and New Komeito, without feeling
threatened. When push comes to shove, the prime minister
has proved iron-willed in putting the party into
fighting shape. He dumped a couple of octogenarian
former prime ministers and chose a popular senior party
official to run the election campaign.
The
Democratic Party is too young to be openly tolerant of
others with strong ideological differences. Party
president Kan, for example, insists he would never form
an alliance that would have a Japan Communist Party
member in his cabinet (others favor a coalition with the
JCP in some form if it means winning the election).
Kan's strategy has relied heavily on the new fad
of presenting a "manifesto" of policy pledges. About the
only popular one that is his promises to eliminate tolls
on highways, outside of naming a number of well-know
people whom he will appoint to cabinet posts if he wins.
One is former Finance Ministry official Eisuke
Sakakibara, who became known as "Mr Yen" in a period of
foreign-exchange instability. Another is the popular
governor of Nagano, Yasuo Tanaka, who may be asked to
serve a dual role as a "minister of decentralization".
Kan would also bring back Yukio Hatoyama, a co-founder
(and bankroller) of the party, as a minister of
education, culture, sports, science and technology.
In contrast, Koizumi says he will stick to the
cabinet that he carefully pieced together in September
after winning a new three-year term as LDP president.
The prime minister won praise for the lineup at the
time. Ironically, Koizumi himself may be the biggest
liability that the party faces.
The party's
campaign was heavily weighted to him - his looks, his
ability to say very little and get away with it, and a
clean record. That is all old stuff and possibly not
enough to carry the whole party.
Now for the
numbers. Japan has about 100 million qualified voters.
In the last general election, in June 2000, there was a
turnout of 62 percent. Depending on the weather, that
could rise above 70 percent.
One independent
political writer puts out the following projections
(there are 480 members in the Lower House). The LDP may
win 240 seats with a plus-minus margin of 10 seats. The
upper range would give it a majority on its own, but it
would keep an alliance with its two coalition parties
because of a shortfall in the Upper House (an election
is due next July).
The LDP's own estimate is 247
seats. The worst case for the LDP is seen at 220 seats.
The Democratic Party is aiming at 200 seats. The
private projection sees 170 seats, plus or minus 15
seats. That would not be within a coalition-government
range even if the allied parties and independents were
counted.
That would put the victory sign pretty
much on Koizumi's side.
There is one caveat.
Only the voters actually get to pick the winners.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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