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Bull's eye for
Koizumi
By Richard Hanson
TOKYO -
In just one year, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has
reversed his sagging political fortunes so much that in
anti-war Japan he could deploy soldiers in Iraq for
humanitarian work. Now he's Koizumi Rex. But the
bright-red rising sun patches emblazoned on troops'
uniforms could make them snipers' targets - and if
Koizumi isn't careful, he, too, could have a bull's eye
emblazoned on his future.
First, the political
facts. Prime Minister Koizumi has just sent the nation's
armed forces, called the Self-Defense Forces, to Iraq
into a "non combat" zone - doing such peaceful
"humanitarian" things as repairing water systems and
patching up hospitals. The first contingents began to
arrive this week. So far, no casualties. The plan is to
send about 600 troops in coming weeks. Some say as many
as 1,000 Japanese soldiers might be deployed.
All this was approved last summer by the Diet,
Japan's parliament, which is dominated by a coalition of
Koizumi's "ruling" Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and
the New Komeito, a party controlled by a large religious
organization. There are quite a few people within these
two parties who have doubts about the wisdom of Japan
sending troops into what all agree is a war zone.
So the prime minister says, in remarks to the
Diet, that Japanese troops will go home if fighting
breaks out in this "non combat" area or for other
reasons. The other reasons aren't spelled out, but
probably include Japanese soldiers getting killed.
Judging from the news reports coming from Iraq, the best
guarantee against casualties may be to provide enough
jobs and money to local tribal leaders "to keep
outsiders away". Japan's phobia for combat casualties is
reflected by one ghoulish quip making the rounds: It's
hard to miss the bright-red rising sun patches
emblazoned on the Self-Defense Forces uniforms -
especially for snipers looking for a bull's eye.
Last year, two Japanese diplomats were killed
while carrying out their duties in Iraq, a shocking
event that forced the government to face up to the
likelihood of casualties.
Back in Tokyo, Koizumi
has been vague about spelling out the conditions in
which the troops might engage in combat, such as a
"terrorist" attack. In response to the prime minister's
policy speech this week, the leader of the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Naoto Kan, called for
Koizumi's resignation.
Pacifist Japanese
accept need to 'rebuild' Iraq
Kan blasted
Koizumi, saying that dispatch of Japanese troops
violates the nation's war-renouncing constitution. Most
people, according to the polls, don't really like the
idea of sending troops to Iraq. But they accept that
Japan is obliged to participate in the "rebuilding" of
Iraq, if only because what the premier is doing is for
the good of the United States-Japan security treaty.
That alliance remains the bedrock of Japan's
defense against such potential threats such as North
Korea. Over the past year and a half, Japan has sought
to open normalization talks with North Korea. Koizumi
made a historic trip to Pyongyang in September 2002 to
kick-start such talks. They faltered over the highly
emotional (and political) issue of North Korea's
abductions of Japanese citizens over the past couple of
decades.
North Korea also threatened to enhance
its nuclear arsenal, a touchy subject in Japan, which is
still the only nation attacked by atomic bombs. This
week, a delegation from the US returned from North Korea
with some chilling reports that the North may be
actually building more bombs.
These are
political facts because Koizumi is betting his career on
them, by far the most perilous risk he has taken since
defeating the "old guard" of the LDP in April 2001 on a
fiery rhetorical platform of radical economic and
"structural" reform of the government.
Three
years ago, Koizumi arrived on the scene as prime
minister with almost unprecedented support in the
popularity polls - yet very little in the way of a power
base within his own party. The initial enthusiasm shown
by public - especially female supporters, who treated
the rakish Koizumi almost as a rock star - helped the
faction-dominated, and scandal-riven LDP, to win
elections.
The first major battle was in July
2001 for the Upper House of parliament, where half of
the seats are up for grabs every three years. Plagued by
a poor economy and government scandals, the LDP lost
disastrously in the Upper House in the 1998 election.
This forced prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto out of
office.
Pre-September 11, more enemies than
friends
In 2001, Koizumi was credited with
restoring party control in the Upper House, with the
help of two coalition partners, the New Komeito in
particular. The prime minister still had more enemies
than friends within the LDP, who bitterly resented
Koizumi's agenda of reforming such corrupt and
pork-barrel rich organizations as the postal system and
a raft of public works sinecures, especially those that
build roads and bridges.
Then came the terrorist
attacks on the US on September 11, 2001, dramatically
changing the political landscape. First, Koizumi thrust
Japan into the role of staunch supporter of US President
George W Bush, starting with the Afghan war. At that
time Japan passed legislation enabling Tokyo to send
warships of the Maritime Self-Defense Forces to the
Indian Ocean to perform non-combat support missions.
The Bush-Koizumi relationship flowered, with
Bush helping Koizumi through bad patches when his
support in the polls fell. Japan's decision to support
the US in the invasion of Iraq is one result of that
mutual support. Even though things have not gone
smoothly since Bush declared the end of "major combat
operations" on May 1, Koizumi has remained loyal to his
US ally. The Japanese media took note of the pecking
order in which Bush thanked allies in his State of the
Union address to Congress this week - naming Japan
first.
A year ago, Koizumi's support at home had
become somewhat shaky as a result of his support for
Bush. Around that time the LDP's gift shop in Nagatacho,
the heartland of Japanese politics, began discounting by
60 percent the three types of "Dream Packs" that once
sold like hot cakes to ardent fans. His popularity
rating had long fallen below an early peak of over 80
percent, and still stands around a respectable 50
percent approval rating.
Since then Koizumi has
defied all odds in engineering the most important
political coup since the creation, in 1955, of the LDP,
which has long been dominated by a handful of powerful
personal political factions. Starting last year with the
LDP party convention in September, Koizumi won
re-election as party president (a three-year term). In
doing so, the prime minister effectively destroyed much
of the power of the factions.
Koizumi
destroys factions
Having defeated his rivals,
Koizumi finally was able to silence, for the time being,
many of his critics. At the same time, however, there
was an equally stunning development among the opposition
parties, which had long been ineffective in challenging
the LDP.
Under the leadership of Naoto Kan, the
leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
agreed to merge with a much smaller Liberal Party,
bringing into its fold influential former LDP power
broker, Ichiro Ozawa. The DJP surprised everyone by
mounting an effective campaign in the Lower House
election called by Koizumi last November.
When
the votes were counted, the LDP remained in charge, but
only with the help of the New Komeito as a greatly
strengthened coalition partner. This has become a
liability for Koizumi. The New Komeito itself is split
over supporting Koizumi in Iraq. With the LDP gearing up
for a debate on changing Japan's anti-war constitution -
true to Article 9, Japan has not initiated any
aggressive acts of war - in the next few years the
coalition could come unglued.
That makes the
upcoming Upper House election crucial for all parties.
What is surprising to some is that Koizumi has risked so
much in supporting Bush, who, of course, is facing a
lively re-election battle of his own. A defeat in the
Upper House, losing its majority, could mean early
retirement.
That will depend on dodging a lot of
very real bullets in Iraq - and a bull's eye painted on
his own future.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times
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