Iraq
hostage crisis signals turning point for Japan
By J Sean Curtin
BEIRUT - The dramatic abduction of three Japanese civilians in Iraq - hostage
bargaining chips - is reverberating throughout Japan, casting a long shadow
over the future of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and his Iraq policy of
dispatching troops on a humanitarian mission to help the United States there.
It evokes memories of hostage-taking during Lebanon's civil war, cases that
dragged on for years with scant progress and abundant tears.
Koizumi is facing his darkest hour, and as one of the US' closest allies, is
coming under tremendous pressure to withdraw Japan's 550 troops from Iraq, a
move that would further, and very significantly erode the already shaky
credibility of the US-led coalition in Iraq. Japanese public opinion - divided
over dispatching troops in the first place - currently is split over whether
Japanese soldiers should quit Iraq. Meanwhile, Japanese and most other
foreigners are fleeing Iraq en masse as the country descends into what some
fear may become a Lebanese-style quagmire of hostage-taking.
To most Japanese, the sudden explosion of violence and hostage-taking has made
their country's strictly humanitarian mission seem futile, since nearly all
their troops are now tightly barricaded in a heavily protected fort about 10
kilometers outside the southern city of Samawah. Some commentators are even
describing the current situation as Lebanon, Vietnam and the Palestinian
intifada all rolled into one.
Dr Pierre Serhal, a leading Beirut surgeon and son of a prominent lawmaker, is
pessimistic about the hostage crisis. He believes that the foreign captives may
be in for a protracted ordeal because US foreign policy is creating instability
in the entire Middle East.
"From a Lebanese perspective, Iraq is turning into the same kind of hostage
nightmare we had in Beirut during the 1980s," he told Asia Times Online. "I am
very worried for the Japanese and other hostages, because I can only see things
getting worse. I am a Christian, not a Muslim, but I feel American policy is a
complete disaster for the whole region. The occupation of Iraq and the total
neglect of any meaningful advances in the Israel-Palestine conflict are
inflaming Arab opinion so much that it threatens the stability of every country
in the region. Unless things radically change, there is little hope for the
hostages, or indeed for the people who live here."
Hostage crisis dominates the Japanese media
The hostage drama is dominating the Japanese media with seemingly endless
discussions about the crisis and its implications for Japan, the Japan-US
alliance, Iraq, the Middle East and US foreign policy. Many recognize that its
eventual outcome will probably determine not only Koizumi's future but also the
future direction of the country's foreign policy. The stakes could not be
higher. In the balance hangs the very nature of Japan's relationship with the
US, the cohesion of the US-led alliance in Iraq, as well as Japan's own
self-image and its status as a global player.
Iraq has been swept by a hostage-taking epidemic that apparently began last
Thursday with the kidnapping of three Japanese citizens, Soichiro Koriyama of
Tokyo and Noriaki Imai and Nahoko Takato, both from from Hokkaido. The unlucky
trio's pictures have been continually broadcast on Japanese TV, and their
ordeal has given rise to unusually passionate political debate. They were
captured by a gang calling itself Saraya al-Mujahideen (the Mujahideen
Brigades), a previously unknown militant group, demanding the withdrawal of
Japan's Ground Self-Defense Forces from Iraq.
Until the hostage crisis, the Japanese media had largely focused on the
humanitarian aspects of Japan's military engagement in Samawah while carefully
downplaying the terrible casualties suffered by US forces, especially the
killing of four contractors and the mutilation and display of their
corpses. Iraq had been portrayed as a country grateful for Japanese
humanitarian aid, and now the Japanese population is bewildered by what seems
Iraq's sudden transformation into a land of anarchy where foreigners are
snatched by militants, Beirut-style, and held hostage, some of them for years.
Ryoji Yamauchi, a political commentator and president of Asahikawa University,
says Japan is facing an important turning point. "The hostage crisis has
already had far-reaching consequences, he told Asia Times Online. "It exposes
the fiction that there are safe areas in Iraq where Japanese troops can conduct
humanitarian activities. The entire country is a battlefield, which means our
war-renouncing constitution should prohibit us from stationing troops there.
The situation also demonstrates that because of the prime minister's obsession
in forming the [US President George W] Bush-[British Prime Minister Tony]
Blair-Koizumi trinity, Japan has become a terror target along with the US and
Britain. Released Korean hostages say their captors repeatedly yelled, 'Kill
the Americans, British and Japanese!'"
Yamauchi added, "It remains to be seen exactly how Japanese people will come to
terms with these new realities. There will be increased public pressure for the
troops to be withdrawn or at least relocated to a safer country like Kuwait or
Jordan. However, Koizumi has made it clear that he does not intend to bow to
such pressure, and this situation will force an intense public debate about the
value of the US-Japan relationship and the price that must be paid for it. What
the outcome of all this will be is impossible to predict because we simply have
no idea how the hostage crisis will unfold, and because Koizumi has injected
such a large dose of nationalism into mainstream Japanese politics that the way
ordinary people view Japan's position in the global order is changing. It is
quite conceivable that Japan will emerge from the crisis more nationalistic and
assertive, or equally, it may revert to its former pacifist, less nationalist
pre-Koizumi state."
Koizumi rejects "dirty threats" of terrorists
Since the crisis broke, Koizumi has adopted a tough stance, telling the nation,
"We will not yield to the dirty threats of the terrorists." US Vice President
Dick Cheney, who visited Japan on Saturday, praised Koizumi's resolve. ''We
wholeheartedly support the position that the prime minister has taken with
respect to the question of Japanese hostages,'' Cheney said. Koizumi reassured
Cheney, "Japan intends to keep its troops in Iraq."
The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has refrained from
demanding a quick troop withdrawal, while strongly urging the government to
take every possible measure to rescue the hostages. Its leader, Naoto Kan, has
said, "The DPJ is ready to transcend the interests of the ruling and opposition
parties to rescue the abducted Japanese."
Only two small opposition parties, the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and the
Social Democratic Party (SDP), have called for an immediate troop pullout.
Keiko Yamauchi, a former Lower House lawmaker for the SDP and one of its
candidates in the July Upper House election said, "Koizumi is always talking
about fighting terror, but what about the thousands of Iraqis who have died
under US occupation? Isn't that also terror? Japan has renounced war, and we
should have no part in this killing. Our troops should be withdrawn at once
before we get sucked down further in this disaster along with the Americans."
An NHK opinion poll released on Monday, and conducted after the hostages were
taken, showed that 53 percent of the public still supported Koizumi, just 1
percent less than in last month's poll, while 34 percent are opposed to his
policies, down 3 percent. On the issue of withdrawing troops, a Kyodo News
survey published on Saturday showed public opinion split on the issue; 43.5
percent said the troops should stay while 45.2 percent said they should
withdraw. The same poll found 45.8 percent supported the government's troop
dispatch to Iraq, while 45 percent said they opposed it. Alarmingly for the
prime minister, more than 80 percent said he would be responsible if a Japanese
citizen were to be injured in Iraq, but only 36 percent said he should resign
if one is killed.
Public debate on the issue has been most intense in Hokkaido, Japan's northern
island, home to two of the three hostages. The vast territory is also home to
most of the Japanese troops deployed in Iraq. Kunio Sasaki, a Hokkaido
politician for the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) said, "Like the
rest of Japan, opinion here is evenly split on the issue of withdrawing the
troops, but most people do agree that what the government needs to do is make
every effort to ensure the safe return of the hostages."
Japanese exodus from the Middle East
Before the spree of hostage-taking began, Japan had hoped to expand its already
strong economic links in the Middle East, especially with Iran and Iraq. A
Japanese consortium recently signed a US$2 billion (215 billion yen) deal with
Tehran to develop the enormous Azadegan oil field near the border with Iraq.
However, immediately following the hostage-taking most Japanese companies began
to scale down and relocate their nationals away from the region. Tokyo advised
all Japanese citizens in the Middle East to be extra cautious. In Iraq, many
Japanese citizens were airlifted to Kuwait on military C-130 cargo planes. Only
about 550 Ground Self-Defense Force personnel now remain, holed up in their
isolated fortress in southern Iraq.
A Japanese journalist with a major newspaper told Asia Times Online, "Since the
hostages were taken, nearly all the Japanese media have left or are leaving
Iraq. People just feel it is no longer safe to be here."
According to Yoshiro, a journalist living in Cairo with his family, "The taking
of Japanese hostages has already had a massive impact on the Japanese community
in the Middle East," he said. "Many people who are stationed here are feeling
anxious and want to leave."
Naoko Kochi, who was visiting Lebanon when the hostage story broke, said, "I
rang my mother and she was very concerned for my safety. Like many Japanese,
she cannot really distinguish between Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq or any other
country in the Middle East. To most Japanese, all the countries in the Middle
East are now considered to be extremely dangerous."
Nabil Harb, an elderly Beirut businessman who remained in Lebanon during its
17-year civil war, sees frightening parallels between the Lebanese hostage
crisis and present-day Iraq. "The recent spate of hostage-taking in Iraq has
striking similarities to the dark days we endured in Lebanon during the civil
war," he said. "The people of many countries were taken hostage and it took
years to free some of them. What troubles me most is that today's Iraq seems
even worse - it's Lebanon, the intifada and Vietnam all rolled into one. Nobody
knows how this terrible situation will end.
"For Japan and other countries whose people have been taken hostage, I can
offer little comfort. If the Lebanese experience is any guide, negotiating the
release of the hostages will be a painful and frustrating process. Little
progress will be made and many tears shed."
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