Island feud a barometer of China-Japan
ties By Charles K Smith
In
late March, a group of seven mainland Chinese activists
landed on one of the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in
an effort to solidify China's claim to the small island
chain, triggering the latest in a growing trend of brief
spats involving Tokyo, Beijing and, to a lesser extent,
Taipei. This was the first successful attempt by Chinese
citizens to land on the islands, and occurred only a
couple months after one attempt failed when Japanese
coast guard vessels purportedly opened fire with water
cannons on Chinese ships approaching the islands.
Japan's coast guard arrested the activists, but
stopped short of pressing criminal charges and instead
sent them back to China, amid warnings coming out of
Beijing to refrain from any drastic action. As this
latest event highlights, in the face of an emergent
China and a remilitarizing Japan, these islands stand to
become a crucial indicator on how far either government
will go to demonstrate its regional dominance.
The island chain accounts for only 20 square
kilometers of land made up of the five islands and three
rock outcroppings, yet it is far from an inconsequential
no-man's land. Located 170 kilometers northeast of
Taipei and 410km west of Okinawa, this island chain has
been the center of a growing territory dispute among
China, Taiwan and Japan since the late 1960s, when a
United Nations survey suggested oil might be found in
the continental shelf beneath these islands.
While no development of oil resources under the
islands, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, is
being seriously pursued at present, each party involved
is eager to secure sovereignty over the islands, as
doing so will ensure tens of thousands of square
kilometers of exclusive economic zone in the surrounding
waters.
Aside from the promise of oil, which to
China and Japan (as the top two importers of foreign oil
in Asia) is immensely important, there is the issue of
face. All sides involved are adamant in their claims to
the islands. To make its case, Beijing (as well as
Taipei) points to ancient Chinese documentation of the
islands dating back to the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), as
well as documentation suggesting that the islands were
incorporated into the Ming and Qing (1644-1911)
dynasties' maritime defenses. Japan says it declared the
islands terra nullius - land that no sovereign
state had yet claimed - purportedly at around the same
time a Japanese citizen began to invest in developing
the islands.
Japan formally claimed the islands
in 1895, the same year it gained control over Taiwan and
other surrounding islands as the result of war with
China. Yet the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands were not renounced
in the San Francisco Treaty of 1951 when Japan renounced
its claim over Taiwan and all other islands associated
with Taiwan, which Japan cites as a clear indication
that it has sovereignty over the Senkakus. The treaty in
question, however, lacks any finality on the issue
because neither China nor Taiwan was a signing party. In
all, Tokyo has maintained control over the islands for
the better part of the past hundred years, during and
before World War II as an Axis power, and after 1971 as
part of the returned Okinawa territories.
Deng's dictum: Leave islands to the next
generation For several decades the issue was put
on the back burner as the states involved in the dispute
had other more pressing concerns. Indeed, China's
paramount leader Deng Xiaoping himself commented on the
situation in a speech back in 1985, saying "the question
of Diaoyu Island ... could be set aside for the moment;
probably the next generation would be cleverer than we
and would find a practical solution".
It was
only in 1996 that the issue was reignited when Tokyo
reaffirmed its claim over the island chain. Beijing
responded with a bout of rhetoric, and redirected
military flights closer to Japanese airspace. This in
turn inspired the Japan Youth Association, a right-wing
nationalistic civilian organization, to set up a
makeshift lighthouse on one of the disputed islands, and
in true tit-for-tat spirit, boatloads of Taiwanese and
Hong Kong civilians made their way to the islands to
counter the actions of impressionable Japanese youth.
This trend has continued until today, although the March
landing marked the first time mainland Chinese were
directly involved (successfully) as civilian activists.
As China's influence in the area rises, this
dispute is likely to show up again and again. Even as
growing economic relations are further integrating the
economies of Northeast Asia, the mutual suspicion
between China and Japan seems to be growing as well.
China finds itself in a bit of a difficult position,
however; while Beijing would like to see the islands
wrested from Japanese hands, this does not appear
immediately achievable.
Geography seems to lend
credence to the case that the islands are more a part of
Taiwan than Okinawa (as they are closer to Taiwan, and
are separated from Okinawa by a deep ocean trench), yet
this same reasoning dictates that China's claim to these
islands is largely dependent on its claim to Taiwan.
Thus projecting any force militarily or otherwise to
secure Beijing's claim over the small island chain would
mean risking the disruption of the status quo of a very
sensitive area, and any such actions are not likely to
take place before China comes to terms with Taiwan.
Yet while Beijing may be prevented from simply
taking the islands militarily (for the Japanese navy is
not inconsequential, and the United States - although
wishing to avoid involvement in the dispute - has
affirmed that it would protect the islands from any
military incursions), Chinese citizens may well take up
the slack. The Chinese Civilian Association for
Safeguarding the Diaoyu Islands has recently applied to
lease the islands for tourism development, a move to
offset Japan's "leasing" of the islands from a private
citizen.
In the end, however, it seems that Deng
Xiaoping's comment still holds some sway with both
Beijing and Tokyo, as leaders of both countries have
aimed to persuade their nationals to cancel any planned
patriotic voyages to the islands. Face, and undeveloped
oil reserves, can wait until taking up the issue doesn't
threaten to damage economic relations severely.
Published with permission of thePower and
Interest News Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into various
conflicts, regions and points of interest around the
globe. All comments should be directed tocontent@pinr.com.
