"After following Japanese politics for 32
years as a journalist and witnessing the performances of
18 prime ministers, I can clearly state that no premier
has been more 'unpredictable' than Junichiro Koizumi." -
Yasuhiro Tase, a Nihon Keizai Shimbun columnist
TOKYO - What is he up to now? That's what a lot
of people wanted to know as Japan's peripatetic prime
minister, Junichiro Koizumi, boarded his official Air
Self Defense Force Boeing 747 on Tuesday morning for the
long flight to Sea Island, Georgia, and the Group of
Eight (G8) Summit.
With his trademark unkempt
gray hair tousled by the wind, Koizumi waved to the
assembled dignitaries and press, most of whom have come
to expect the unexpected from Koizumi, 62, who has just
entered his fourth year in office and is attending his
fourth G8 meeting of the top industrial nations (with a
footnote for Russia).
As usual, the prime
minister's pre-trip pronouncements have been clipped and
not very noteworthy. Even that, however, can't obscure
Koizumi's remarkable achievements going into this
meeting of his peers.
Chief among them is the
simple fact that he has presided over a striking period
of broad changes in both Japan's economic health and its
international stature. He has done so while maintaining
a surprising degree of personal support at home - and
overseas. Sure, he has his ups and downs - but seldom
lower than about 50 percent.
What is now clear,
however, is that Koizumi is presiding over a sea change
in the way Japan perceives itself in the world, one that
is chock full of resurging dangers, both near and far.
To the surprise of many, the path that Japan is now
treading carefully has encouraged a keener sense of the
limits (and dangers) of relying too much on a bilateral
relationship. Japan's involvement in Iraq has been a
wake-up call.
Early this year, the government
committed the Self Defense Forces to a substantial (by
Japan's measure) humanitarian mission in support of
the US-led coalition's occupation of Iraq. Koizumi led
the effort, but only by carefully judging the popular
mood. So far there have been zero military casualties in
the desert camp established in the southern Iraq desert.
Koizumi on Monday denied a media report that he
will visit the southern Iraqi city of Samawah after
attending the Group of Eight summit in the United
States. "I have no such plans," Koizumi told reporters,
adding that the media sometimes make reports beyond his
imagination.
The Japanese public, in fact, was
surprised and relieved that the government handled a
delicate hostage situation, involving three young
Japanese, without casualties. (So far, Japan has
suffered the deaths of two diplomats and three
journalists.)
Closer to home, the prime minister
has gotten reasonably good marks for his handling of the
return of relatives of people kidnapped by North Korean
agents as far back as the 1970s. Koizumi won the release
of only five of the eight family members of repatriated
Japanese abductees. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has
promised a new investigation into the cases of 10 other
missing Japanese abductees.
All in all,
Koizumi's second visit to Pyongyang was supported by the
public, according to polls. At times, he appeared to be
acting recklessly. But, to his credit, he did act,
despite strong opposition from within his own ruling
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
(One report
suggests that the resignation on May 7 of Koizumi's
influential chief cabinet secretary Yasuo Fukuda was
sparked by this anti-North Korea stance rather than
Fukuda's desire to take responsibility for failing to
pay into the mandatory national pension system. See Japan's top pension scofflaw
resigns, May 8.)
The bottom line for
Koizumi is simple: Despite changing circumstances, he
remains popular at home and abroad. That in itself puts
Koizumi in a comfortable position vis-a-vis his fellow
G8 members, as he attends his fourth such gathering.
There is, of course, the special relationship
with the host, an embattled US President George W Bush.
That strategic diplomatic move was modeled on the
Ron-Yasu pairing of the late Ronald Reagan and
Koizumi's mentor, Yasuhiro Nakasone (who will represent
Japan at the official Reagan funeral). But Koizumi has
diplomatically kept close links with others, notably
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.
To his
domestic audience in Japan, Koizumi will continue to
preach the mantra that Japan's security in the world,
especially in Japan's Northeast Asian back yard, depends
much on a strong relationship with the United States.
The US is saying that it will cut back on troop
strengths in South Korea and Japan. News like that is
both welcome (by opponents of the US military presence)
and troubling (if it sends the wrong signals to North
Korea).
One pundit describes the premier's knack
for securing popular support as "Koizumi magic". It
still works. He gains the power needed to stay in office
by impressing the public with his determination to
challenge problems that no one has been able to
resolve.
The list of challenging problems is
daunting.
No 1 on his agenda is still the
nuclear-power-rattling North Korean leader Kim Jong Il,
with whom he met for a second time in May to rescue
families of kidnapped Japanese. There is also an
unprecedented degree of regular cooperation in the
region since North Korea sent a chill through the region
in late 2002 by saying that it was working on its
nuclear development capabilities, which had been stopped
under an international 1994 agreement on nuclear power.
(North Korea is suspected of having nuclear weapons
already.)
Foreign ministers of Japan, China and
South Korea will discuss policies toward six-nation
talks on North Korea's nuclear program at their first
regular meeting to be held June 22 in Qingdao, China.
This was confirmed by directors general of the foreign
ministries of the three countries at two-day preparatory
talks started in Hakone, Kanagawa prefecture, on Monday
for the ministerial meeting.
Then there is the
equally important strategic dilemma of the Two Chinas
(Japan's official ties with Taiwan were severed in the
early 1970s). Personally, Koizumi is seen by some as a
thorn in the side of happier Sino-Japan relations, for
insisting on paying his respects at Tokyo's Yasukuni
Shrine, where the spirits of Japan's war dead (including
several convicted war criminals) repose. There has been
speculation that China might use Koizumi's unwavering
stance on the Yasukuni Shine to avoid awarding
big-ticket business contracts (such as a
high-speed-train project) to Japanese companies. Japan
and China have plenty of other matters to disagree over
(see Sweating bullets over new Chinese
train, May 13).
On Tuesday, Minister of
Economy, Trade and Industry Shoichi Nakagawa said Japan
plans to hold bilateral talks with China over the
suspected encroachment of what Japan claims as an
exclusive economic zone in the East China Sea by gas
fields that China is developing.
(In contrast,
there is a report that Nippon Oil Corp and PetroChina Co
will team up in oil-refining operations to export the
output to China. Crude oil will be processed in Japan by
Nippon Oil, with PetroChina overseeing export of the
products, in the first refining venture between Chinese
and Japanese concerns.)
As Koizumi winged his
way to the United States, no doubt he was also looking
for ways to bolster the LDP's prospects in the election
for the upper house of the Diet (parliament) on July 11.
The government is keenly aware of the dangers of losing
seats in the election, though there is little threat to
Koizumi's position as prime minister (his term as LDP
president runs for another two years). What could hurt
him is further erosion of the situation in Iraq, which
could make the Koizumi-Bush relationship more of a
liability at home. As one news service points out, the
greatest nightmare of the Koizumi government is a
terrorist attack akin to the Madrid train bombing that
preceded Spain's general election.
Judging from
the stringent security already in place in Tokyo, it is
unlikely that even "Koizumi magic" could weigh in to
prevent a disaster. But Koizumi's more realistic views
of the world at least make it more likely for the
country to be prepared.
That is one of the only
things that might be less predictable than Koizumi.
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