Koizumi has a real fight on his
hands By J Sean Curtin
TOKYO
- At the half-way point of the 17-day campaign for
Japan's Upper House elections, a tremendous sense of
political drama is building. Normally, Japanese
elections are dull and predictable, but not this time
around. Polls indicate that the race is too close to
call, the outcome hangs by a thread. Victory is within
the grasp of either of the country's two main political
parties, the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) and the up-and-coming opposition Democratic Party
of Japan (DPJ). For Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi,
the race is turning into one of the toughest political
challenges of his career.
As the finely-balanced
campaign enters the final round - polls are Sunday July
11 - the stakes are on the table and all the cards
dealt. The economy, pensions, Iraq and the North Korean
abduction issue are the four main cards Koizumi has to
play. While his ace is the positive signs of economic
recovery, unpopular pension reforms along with Japanese
troops in Iraq are seriously weakening his hand.
Adding an additional element of suspense to the
proceedings is the future of the mysterious Charles
Robert Jenkins, an alleged US military defector to North
Korea. Jenkins is the focus of Japanese media attention
because he is the husband of a Japanese woman, Hitomi
Soga, who was abducted to North Korea in 1978. Resolving
their unusual case and reuniting them could turn out to
be the wild card of the election, one which Koizumi may
risk playing if defeat looks imminent.
Although
a loss in the Upper House elections does not directly
threaten the continuation of the LDP-led government, a
poor showing would substantially dent its authority. In
Japan's bicameral system, the Lower House, currently
controlled by the LDP, is the more powerful chamber.
Nevertheless, Koizumi has staked his reputation on the
LDP capturing 51 of the 121 Upper House seats up for
grabs.
If Koizumi does well, he could well
become one of Japan's longest-serving prime ministers.
Defeat could cost him his job and would reconfigure the
political landscape into a virtual two-party system.
The outcome of the contest now basically depends
on two factors: good fortune and the skill of the
players. This scenario favors Koizumi who has proved
himself to be a supremely masterful tactician as well as
an amazingly daring and successful political gambler. On
this occasion, events have tossed the premier a
difficult hand and some commentators believe his lucky
streak may finally be running out. However, if past
performance is any guide, we can expect some imaginative
moves from a seasoned political gambler.
Political climate volatile Of
particular worry to Koizumi and the LDP is the fact that
the Upper House elections can often be much more
volatile than the Lower House elections. Professor Ryoji
Yamauchi, political commentator and president of
Asahikawa University explains, "During Upper House
elections, voters tend to be more adventurous when they
cast their ballots, which can often cause much bigger
swings than we normally observe in a Lower House
election. Voters know this is not a general election and
they are not going to change the government. So if they
are angry about something, they are not frightened about
giving the government a good kicking. That is probably
why Koizumi has been looking so worried lately and [DPJ
opposition leader Katsuya] Okuda has a permanent smile
on his face."
Every three years, half of the
upper chamber's seats are contested. Up for grabs this
time are a total of 121 seats, consisting of 73 directly
elected constituencies in 47 prefectures and 48
proportional representation seats. 320 candidates have
registered, 192 for the directly elected section and 128
in the proportional block. [Koizumi himself is not a
candidate.]
At stake are the future of the prime
minister and the establishment, the emergence, at least
in the mind of the electorate, of a nascent two-party
system. For Koizumi success is absolutely vital and for
the opposition DPJ the poll is also crucial if it is
going to have any chance of taking control of the Lower
House at the next general election.
A good
showing by the opposition DPJ would be a significant
development that would create a serious challenger to
the long-dominant LDP and probably lead to the
extinction of the two smaller opposition parties, the
Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic
Party.
While the LDP-led coalition cabinet is
under no direct danger from the result, a setback in the
upper chamber could prove fatal for the prime minister.
Two of Koizumi's LDP predecessors were forced to quit
after poor showing in the triennial polls. In 1989,
prime minister Sosuke Uno had to fall on his sword after
the Japan Socialist Party won big in the upper chamber
and in 1998, party pressure booted out prime minister
Ryutaro Hashimoto who only managed to capture 44 seats.
Koizumi must win 51 seats Koizumi has
repeatedly said, "I will do my best to win 51 seats."
However, he has declined to say exactly how he would
take responsibility if his party fails to achieve its
official target. On election night, the 51 LDP-seats
figure will be the make-or-break number to look out for.
In the current race, the LDP has 50 seats to
defend while its coalition partner, the New Komeito
[Party], is contesting 10 seats for reelection. The LDP
has not held a majority in the Upper House for 15 years
and currently only controls the chamber with the help of
New Komeito. To achieve a majority, the LDP must gain 56
seats in the election. So, Koizumi is playing a cautious
game by setting a formal election target of just 51. If
he breaks the 56-seat barrier, then he can claim a great
victory.
Party elders are in no doubt that if
Koizumi fails to deliver the stated 51 benchmark goal,
his head in on the chopping block. Mikio Aoki, the
influential leader of the LDP's upper house caucus, has
stated, "This is an election with the administration at
stake."
Meanwhile, the DPJ is buoyant as its
energetic new leader, Katsuya Okada, whizzes around the
country. While not specifying a number, Okada has
confidently told the public, "We will surpass the LDP in
the number of seats we gain." Polls show this target is
possible as the party is running neck-and-neck with the
LDP in many single-seat constituencies, with the results
too close to call. The DPJ is ahead in the proportional
bloc.
DPJ strategists hope to maintain the
impressive momentum the party gained in last November's
Lower House election, in which it beat the LDP in the
proportional representation bloc. Party officials say
the aim is to win 50 or more seats, certainly more than
the 38 it currently has up for reelection.
Economic ace Koizumi and the LDP have
made tremendous efforts to trumpet the genuine upturn in
the economy, which they claim is due to their good
fiscal management and reforms. While out campaigning,
Koizumi has tried to hammer this message across. He
recently said, "People know the economy is going well.
The stock market is rising and we can see things are
improving. We've been on the steady road to recovery for
29 consecutive months, bad debt has been written off by
banks and there is a decline in the jobless rate. These
are the concrete achievements of our reforms." However,
this rosy scenario is darkened in some areas by the
persistence of various sectoral and regional gaps in
economic performance.
While the economy appears
to be on the mend, the issue of pension reform has
eclipsed the good fiscal news. The coalition rammed
through some unpopular pension reform measures in an
attempt to shore up the rickety pension system. This
process was severely hampered when it was discovered
that many leading politicians, including the prime
minister himself, had failed to pay their premiums in
the past. Opposition parties pounced on the issue and
while not exactly offering any solutions, skillfully
exploited public anger.
When it was recently
revealed that the information on which the government
calculated its reform policy was incorrect, the
acrimonious pension debate took a turn for the worse. A
noisy opposition claimed that the government
deliberately withheld vital birthrate projections
showing lower than forecast birthrates, something
Koizumi has vigorously denied.
The DPJ has
called for the abolition of the pension-reform
legislation and instead proposed the unification of
different pension programs and the creation of a new
pension-specific consumption tax.
Professor
Yamauchi, political commentator and president of
Asahikawa University, observes, "At the moment, the
Koizumi administration is pretty unpopular because of
its pension reform policy and the related scandals
involving top politicians failing to pay their pension
premiums. Keeping Japanese troops in Iraq is also
another highly controversial issue. Both are obscuring
the improving economic situation.
"Iraq is
especially risky because if a Japanese soldier is killed
during the campaign, the LDP would suffer heavy losses.
That is why our troops are living like virtual
prisoners, shut away from the sunlight, deep insider
their Samawah bunker [in southern Iraq]. They have been
restricted to their fortified barracks for weeks and
will probably not be allowed to emerge from the
protected shelters until after the election is safely
over."
The entire pensions fiasco has dented
confidence in the government. Public resentment combined
with the unpopularity of keeping troops in
post-occupation Iraq could easily tip the Upper House
election the opposition's way.
Koizumi
contemplates Pyongyang card As the election
result begins to look increasingly uncertain, Koizumi
may feel it necessary to utilize the North Korean
abduction issue as a kind of wild card. In the past this
highly emotive issue has proved to be a great
poll-booster. On his second visit to Pyongyang in May,
Koizumi managed to negotiate the release of five North
Korean-born children of four former Japanese abductees,
captured by North Korean agents. The blanket coverage of
the happy family reunions lifted Koizumi's popularity
ratings.
However, the premier's mission in May
did not fully resolve the issue and there are still
three family members of former abductee Hitomi Soga
living in Pyongyang. Soga's husband, alleged US army
deserter Charles Robert Jenkins, and their two
daughters, Belinda and Mika, refused to come to Japan.
He had been serving in South Korea.
Despite
Koizumi's best assurances, Jenkins feared being
extradited to the United States for a court-martial if
he set foot on Japanese soil because of a Japan-US
extradition treaty. However, there was a promise of a
family reunion in a third country that has no
extradition treaties with the US. Since the Upper House
election campaign started, bilateral negotiations on the
rendezvous have been noticeably accelerated.
Successfully resolving the issue would probably give
Koizumi a lift in the polls.
The Soga saga has
dominated the media in recent weeks with extensive
coverage given to Soga's curious form of poetry in which
she simplistically pours out her heartache and dreams of
family reunion. Soga has not seen her husband and
daughters since October 2002, when she returned to Japan
after two decades of captivity in North Korea. She has
expressed a strong desire for a reunion before July 23,
the 19th birthday of her youngest daughter Belinda.
A stumbling block has been Jenkins' refusal to
leave North Korea, where he has lived for nearly 40
years. However, Japanese Foreign Ministry sources have
informed Asia Times Online that North Korea has now
"persuaded" Jenkins to travel to Indonesia with his
daughters for a reunion.
Japanese Foreign
Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and her North Korean
counterpart Paek Nam Sun announced late Thursday that
the two countries have agreed to arrange a family
reunion in Indonesia. The statement dominated the
Japanese evening news.
Koizumi's first reaction
to the announcement was to say, "The sooner they meet up
the better." He enthusiastically added, "They don't have
to wait until Belinda's birthday." This seems to suggest
that the prime minister may be contemplating arranging a
reunion before the election.
If he does, it
would certainly create some very positive news and
inject fresh momentum into his campaign. The closing
days of this hard-fought race promise to be interesting
ones.
J Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow
at the Tokyo-based Japanese Institute of Global
Communications.
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