Koizumi's fate may be sealed with a kiss

By J Sean Curtin

It finally happened, with a kiss.

Prime Minister Junchiro Koizumi pulled it off. a Japanese woman, formerly captive in North Korea, was tearfully reunited with her husband, a former American GI, an alleged deserter/captive of Pyongyang, and their two daughters. This photo-political op took place on the tarmac in Jakarta, Indonesia, where the ex-serviceman couldn't be extradicted to the US and court-martialed for desertion. 

In any case, Koizumi hoped the unrelenting media coverage would stir the hearts and generate the votes of the Japanese electorate in a key election this Sunday; he just might snatch victory for what many analysts say could be the jaws of defeat.

The Japanese media have been obsessed for the past week by the emotional tale of a family reunion spanning Japan and reclusive North Korea. So intense has been the coverage that this Sunday's crucial Upper House election - make or break for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi - has been eclipsed, significantly dampening voters' interest in the tight contest. The relentlessly covered reunion might well snatch victory form the jaws of defeat.

A low election-day turnout will greatly improve the flagging fortunes of Koizumi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which does well when voter apathy is high. This apathy factor alone almost certainly explains why the premier himself initiated the current media frenzy by launching what might be termed a weapon of mass distraction - a family reunion Friday in Jakarta between a Japanese woman kidnapped years ago by North Korea and her alleged United States GI deserter/abductee husband who has remained behind in North Korea, fearing US extradition from Japan and court martial.

One week before the Upper House election, shock waves surged through the government after a series of weekend opinion polls predicted a dismal showing for the LDP. For the prime minister, the results of the election (although he personally is not contesting a seat) are a do-or-die issue. As Asia Times Online predicted, if defeat loomed, Koizumi would try to boost his party's standing by hastily reuniting the family - US husband and two North Korean-born daughters - of a former Japanese woman kidnapped by North Korea.

Wasting little time, on Monday Koizumi quickly set about altering the dynamics of the election campaign by detonating his carefully calibrated weapon of mass distraction. He deliberately brought forward the timing of a much-anticipated and high-profile family reunion between former North Korea captive Hitomi Soga and her family in Pyongyang. It was announced they would meet on Friday, two days before the Upper House poll. This and other reunions - those effected by Koizumi's recent Pyongyang visit - have dominated the news agenda for weeks and given Koizumi a popularity boost.

After an intense week-long media blitz, on Friday evening Koizumi was expected finally to reunite a tearful Hitomi Soga with her husband and daughters. The event may have a powerful impact on voter attitudes, perhaps even saving the Koizumi regime from ballot-box disaster. A serious loss could force him to resign and take responsibility.

Voter turnout crucial to outcome
The two main objectives of Koizumi's strategy are to shift public attention away from highly unpopular government policies and in Sunday's poll to lower voter turnout, which will be the critical factor deciding the final outcome.

By having the reunion dominate media in the final phase of the campaign, Koizumi has already reduced much of the heat from of a very tough race. The public is still furious with the LDP over recently implemented pension reforms, at a time of disclosures that key members of Koizumi's own cabinet, the head of the opposition and many years ago even Koizumi himself had failed to pay mandatory pension premiums. The pension reforms for ordinary Japanese mean that they pay more for reduced benefits.

Additionally, polls show that the continued Japanese troop deployment in Iraq has also become a major campaign issue. The government's best attempts to highlight the nation's improved economic situation failed to defuse public anger over both issues, so, apparently in desperation, Koizumi decided to try a spectacular diversionary human-interest tactic.

Opinion polls show that the only thing for which the government has consistently received a high rating is its handling of the abduction issue. Decades ago, North Korean agents kidnapped ordinary Japanese to help them learn idiomatic Japanese language and culture. Thus, by engineering an emotional abductee-family reunion just before the ballot boxes open, Koizumi is trying to remind voters of his positive record. To the opposition's dismay, these tactics - not related to substantive political issues - may allow the LDP to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Polls show the election is evenly balanced between the LDP and the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), making voter turnout absolutely crucial in determining the outcome. A high turnout would favor the DPJ because it normally captures the largest share of floating voters. On the other hand, a low turnout is good news for the LDP and its coalition partner, New Komeito, because they have strong local organizations to get out and maximize their votes. A low turnout especially enhances the power of the small New Komeito, which has a rock-solid core of dedicated voters.

As a relatively new party, the opposition DPJ lacks the advantage of well-established local networks and depends on a high turnout to pick up the extra ballots of unaffiliated voters, which are necessary to defeat the slick party machines of its rivals.

A senior LDP official, who did not wished to be named, told Asia Times Online, "If voter turnout is somewhere in the region of 50% or below, then we expect to hold back the DPJ." In the 2001 Upper House election, turnout in the constituency seats was 56.44%; some seats are allocated proportionately. Recent opinion polls suggest the voter turnout figure may be low this time.

A family divided
At the center of the week-long media storm is Hitomi Soga, a Japanese woman abducted by Pyongyang in 1978 and released in October 2002. While a captive in the Stalinist state, she married Charles Robert Jenkins, a former US army sergeant who allegedly defected to North Korea in 1965; some say he was captured. They have two North Korean-born daughters, Mika, 21, and Belinda, 18.

While the families of other abductees have already been allowed to resettle in Japan, Soga's husband has refused to leave the reclusive nation with his offspring. He has a well-founded fear of being extradited from Japan to the United States to face charges of desertion. The administration of US President George W Bush has made clear its intent to pursue Jenkins. To break the deadlock, Indonesia, a country with no US extradition treaty, was chosen as the neutral location for the reunion.

North Korea's compliance in the matter was secured by Koizumi making positive remarks about normalizing bilateral relations as well as hurriedly arranging for a shipment of 250,000 tons of already-promised food aid and medical supplies.

Soga's saga distracts from the real issues
Since Monday, the Soga saga has completely dominated the Japanese media, virtually obliterating political coverage from the final week before the Upper House election campaign, and indeed almost everything else.

Koizumi appears to have skillfully planned the reunion schedule to maximize its impact on the daily news headlines, though the puppeteer himself will be absent from the reunion in a posh Jakarta hotel. Examining the evening news reports for the past five days amply illustrates the point. On Monday the top story was the surprise government announcement that Soga would meet her husband and daughters on Friday in Jakarta. There were endless related news items on Soga while the bitterly fought Upper House election disappeared from the TV screen.

On Tuesday, saturation coverage was given to the uninspiring press conference held by the straight-talking Soga. She spoke at length in short, plain sentences about her dream of a happy family reunion, as well as sharing her shopping plans and cooking ideas with the nation.

On Wednesday, Soga's uneventful journey from her rural home in Niigata prefecture to a sweltering Tokyo was one of the main news items during daytime broadcasts. To sustain interest in the evening, a high-profile after-dinner audience was arranged for Soga with Koizumi, never one to miss a photo-op. She dutifully thanked the premier for his efforts to reunite her family. By now the imminent election appeared little more than a distant memory, as a beaming Koizumi lapped up Soga's praise.

On Thursday, every single minute detail of Soga's mundane departure and flight to bustling Jakarta filled the airwaves to the exclusion of all other news. There were scenes of near hysteria at Tokyo's Narita Airport as the media and passengers fought one another to catch a glimpse of the portly heroine as she plodded toward the departure gate. The extent of media fixation can be gauged by the fact that the progress of Soga's three suitcases into the cargo hold of the aircraft was broadcast live on TV. A panel of TV presenters even speculated about the possible contents of the baggage.

Close encounter in a third country
On Friday, there was absolutely nothing but the agonizingly long countdown to the close encounter in a third country. The day started with live coverage of the Jakarta hotel where Soga is staying. Viewers were treated to live pictures of the hotel reception, the Japanese restaurant and convenience store situated in the hotel basement and numerous other uninteresting features of the facility. A panel of experts hotly debated whether Soga slept well in Jakarta and there was even fevered speculation on what Japanese food she would cook for her family.

Next came pictures from Pyongyang Airport of a bemused-looking Jenkins and his cheerful daughters boarding the specially charted Japanese government flight from Pyongyang to Jakarta. At about 7pm Japan time, they were to arrive in Jakarta for the much-awaited tearful climax of the day with Soga. The mid-evening arrival of the flight seemed designed to sustain the story into the weekend. This will mean that even the election results of the now almost forgotten Upper House poll will have to vie for interest with this mega-human-interest story.

The question on the minds of all politicians is over what impact the blanket coverage will have on the election. LDP deputy secretary general Akira Amari summed up his party's sentiment: "We hope it has a positive impact for us in the Upper House election."

On Sunday, the electorate will give its verdict.

J Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese Institute of Global Communications.

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