Koizumi rocks
the boat with Kurils jaunt By J Sean Curtin
Just as
economic ties between Moscow and Tokyo are beginning to
pick up momentum, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi has strained relations with a high-profile
five-hour voyage around a chain of remote islands
claimed by both countries. The excursion marks the first
time a Japanese premier has come so close to the
disputed Russian-held territory, irritating Moscow,
which dispatched a warship to observe the proceedings.
Some analysts fear that if he is not careful,
Koizumi could ignite nationalist passions in both
countries. However, Japanese public reaction to the
visit last Thursday has been decidedly subdued,
suggesting that nationalist sentiment about the
Russian-controlled islands is waning. This situation
creates an opportunity for a bilateral resolution,
provided both Koizumi and Russian President Vladimir
Putin can overcome nationalist forces at home.
However, after the recent terrorist atrocities
in the town of Beslan in the southern republic of North
Ossetia, Putin may not be in the mood to give up any
territory or sovereignty. He has already taken a tough
line with European leaders, who have questioned his
tactics in Chechnya and, according to Russia newspaper
reports, Putin's expected visit to Japan next year may
now be canceled.
A Hokkaido-based academic told
Asia Times Online, "After the terrorist bloodbath we
have witnessed in Russia in recent weeks, the trip is
more likely to inflame relations than create the
conditions for a bilateral settlement."
The
remote wind-swept archipelago, just off the eastern tip
of Japan's mighty northern island of Hokkaido, is known
in Japan as the Northern Territories and is called the
Southern Kurils in Russia. It consists of three large
islands, Kunashiri, Etorofu and Shikotan, and the
smaller Habomai group of islets. All were seized by the
Soviet Union in 1945 and are in an area believed to be
rich in natural resources.
Japan has never
renounced its claim to the islands and the ownership
issue has prevented Tokyo and Moscow from concluding any
peace treaty to end World War II hostilities formally, a
situation which technically leaves them still at war.
Koizumi's maritime excursion generated media
speculation that it might spark a wave of Japanese
nationalism, but for most ordinary Japanese the dispute
appears to be of little concern. One resident who lives
near the islands observed, "Nowadays, I don't think most
people care that much about whether we get these islands
back or not."
A greater risk appears to lie in
Koizumi's actions provoking friction at a time of
Russian national crisis. His behavior could
inadvertently shift Russo-Japanese relations into an
unsatisfactory configuration in which the two neighbors
continue to develop strong economic ties but lack a good
political partnership. Under the Koizumi administration
a similarly undesirable state of affairs has already
afflicted Sino-Japanese relations, which are currently
locked in an apparently permanent state of political
tension.
On the positive side, Koizumi's
territorial foray might be a way for him to neutralize
vocal nationalist elements in his Liberal Democratic
Party, ahead of a hoped-for agreement that would finally
remove the long-standing bilateral thorn.
Economic logic dictates that it is in Japan's
long-term interest to improve ties with Russia by
settling the dispute. In fact, the country's future
energy needs may one day depend on closer ties with
Moscow. The Kremlin recently decided to build a Siberian
oil pipeline to the Pacific port of Nakhodka, along a
Tokyo-backed route, while Beijing had favored a pipeline
to Daqing in northwestern China. The Nakhodka pipeline
will enable Russia to export huge quantities of oil to
Japan, strengthening economic ties.
Geopolitical
considerations also favor stronger Russo-Japanese ties,
which could provide the two neighbors with a
counterweight to an increasingly assertive China.
In Japan, public opinion will ultimately help or
hinder an effective resolution to the decades-old
territorial problem. From this perspective, present
indications point to Tokyo preparing for a compromise
deal.
Territorial dispute has limited
appeal Nationally, the return of the remote
Northern Territories does not arouse any real sense of
excitement. While the issue certainly fevers the blood
of a small band of ultra-nationalists and some
right-wing politicians, in general ordinary people are
just not that interested.
In Hokkaido, which is
nearest to the disputed archipelago, the issue divides
the huge island-territory along geographical lines.
Support for reintegration of the Russian-held
archipelago is concentrated mainly in the east of
Hokkaido around the remote cities of Nemuro and Kushiro.
Nemuro, the city closest to the Northern Territories, is
the home to the largest group of former residents.
About 17,000 Japanese were living on the islands
at the time of the Soviet invasion in August 1945, which
forced them to flee. Today, it is estimated that about
14,000 Russians eke out a meager existence on the
wind-battered islands, most relying on fishing to
sustain them.
In Kushiro, 125 kilometers down
the coast from Nemuro, support for a return is
especially strong among the city's fishing community,
which would benefit financially if Japan owned the rich
fishing grounds around the islands.
Former
Northern Territory residents living in Nemuro, and their
supporters, openly welcomed Koizumi's visit. At the
start of his five-hour tour, a cheering group of them
waved the premier off. They held up Rising Sun flags as
he boarded a coast-guard patrol boat in Nemuro's
Hanasaki port.
One unidentified elderly man told
NHK TV News, "I am very happy the prime minister has
come here to support us."
Hiroshi Fujiwara, the
mayor of Nemuro city, was also upbeat about the visit.
He told the press, "I feel certain that both
domestically and internationally, the Northern
Territories issue has been highlighted by this visit."
While Koizumi was able to see little of the
fog-clad islands, he was himself highly visible to the
national media. Wearing a dashing white coast-guard
jacket, he nimbly strode around the wind-lashed vessel
clutching a large pair of binoculars. After five hours
at sea, he returned to Nemuro to meet former residents,
their descendants and a band of supporters.
A
resolute-sounding premier told the gathering of about
8,000 people, "Without restoration of the four islands,
we will not have a Japan-Russia peace treaty." For
balance he added, "Restoration of the Northern
Territories will not only benefit Japan, but Russia
too."
However, he was vague about details,
declining to accept fully the former residents' demand
that the islands be returned all at once. He also did
not give any timeline for resolving the dispute.
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, he
clarified his position: "I will not set a deadline or
target date [for a return] but will try to make it as
early as possible." These remarks dampened the hopes of
many former residents.
Little enthusiasm
about a return of the territories In most of
Hokkaido, enthusiasm for getting back the Northern
Territories is pretty lukewarm. In fact, in the big
cities of Sapporo, Asahikawa and Hakodate it is
extremely difficult to find anyone, apart from the odd
ultra-rightist, who is passionate about the issue.
Furthermore, in Nemuro, Kushiro and the
surrounding region, solid support for a return appears
to be confined to mainly elderly former residents, their
families and the fishing community. On the whole, most
people in the region are fairly indifferent to the
dispute.
v Mari Ito, a nurse in her mid-20s from
the town of Rausu located near one of the islands, told
Asia Times Online, "From Rausu you can see Kunashiri
Island. We are taught in school that this land belongs
to Japan and is part of our Northern Territories. Unlike
many Japanese people, it is there physically in front of
us to see with our own eyes. Even so, many young people
feel a sense of separation from it. I myself do not
really know anything about what it is really like over
there, and no Japanese people live there. If young
people from this area feel removed from the place, then
I guess on the mainland people feel even less of a
connection."
Kumiko Fujiwara, a fortysomething
housewife from Kushiro, is not especially interested in
the return of the islands. She told Asia Times Online,
"People of my generation do not feel strongly about the
Northern Territories. You know, a lot of people do not
really know anything about them as the Russians have had
them since before I was born."
Akemi Iizawa, a
young teacher from Nemoro, commented, "From Cape Nosappu
[near Nemuro] you can easily see some of the islands,
they are just a few kilometers away. But I do not think
young people living in Nemuro actually think that much
about them. We know the Japanese people who lived there
were forced to leave by the Russians, but that was a
long time ago and it feels like history to many people."
In Hokkaido's larger cities, people are much
less enthusiastic and their views broadly reflect
national opinion. Many are also skeptical about
Koizumi's motives for coming on a high-profile day-trip
to the region.
Masahiro, a teacher in Sapporo
who did not wish to give his family name, summed up the
sentiment of many ordinary Hokkaido citizens. He said,
"To be honest, I don't think people are that interested
about these islands. Nemuro seems like a pretty distant
place to me. In fact, I have never been there, and those
islands are even remoter. They always seem to have such
terrible weather and are bitterly cold in winter. I just
can't image anyone who would want to go to live out
there. I mean, Nemuro is rapidly losing its population,
people are moving away because of its isolation [from
the rest of Hokkaido]. So, where are you going to find
people to populate those islands?"
Even among
Japanese who were forced to flee their homes by the Red
Army in 1945, there is surprisingly little passion about
getting the islands back.
Hiroshi Sakamoto, a
retired Hokkaido government official, told Asia Times
Online, "I was born on Karafuto [a former Japanese
territory on southern Sakhalin], but when I was an
infant, my family had to flee as the Soviets occupied
our home town [in 1945] and seized control of the entire
island. We know we will never get that territory back.
In many respects, the same is now probably true for the
Northern Territories. Those islands rightfully should be
returned to Japan, but after 60 years you get used to
the fact that they probably will not. I think many of
the older generation feel a deep sense of regret about
this, but nevertheless accept it as a painful fact."
Sakamoto added, "I would love to visit my
birthplace [on Sakhalin], but it is just a dream.
Koizumi is playing with our feelings with his visit, but
I think most people in Hokkaido realize this. His trip
was not for Japan or for Nemuro or for the Northern
Territories. No, it was solely for publicity."
Settling the dispute will take
time Koizumi's political opponents take a
similarly negative view of his motives. Keiko Yamauchi,
a former Hokkaido politician, commented, "When I was a
lawmaker, I was deeply involved with [the] Northern
Territories issue and spent a lot of time listening to
the opinions of the people of Nemuro. I learned that
there is no easy solution to this extremely complex
problem."
She explained, "Many of the former
residents of the islands still want to go back, and by
international law the territory belongs to Japan.
However, the islands have now been in Russian possession
for nearly 60 years. During that time, Russians have
lived there and they now considerate the place their
home. Therefore, any genuine solution to this problem
will have to involve communication and exchange between
the former and present communities. The wishes of both
peoples, Japanese and Russia, must not be ignored. We
have already built up a lot of trust with various
exchanges, but there is still a long way to go."
Since 1992, visa-less exchange trips between the
citizens of the Russian-held islands and Hokkaido
residents have been taking place. Russians also
frequently visited Hokkaido for medical treatment.
Environmentalists from both countries have proposed the
establishment of a cross-border nature park.
Yamauchi was scathing of Koizumi's motivation
for viewing the islands. She said, "Koizumi certainly
will not solve this complex problem by dressing up like
James Bond for the media and dancing up and down on the
deck of a warship to please his ultra-right-wing
buddies."
Japan wants to resolve islands
dispute While acknowledging the publicity aspect
of the visit, most political analysts think Koizumi is
serious about trying to resolve the territorial dispute.
His trip is interpreted as an attempt to generate
momentum ahead of next February's talks with Putin. By
beating the nationalist drum now, Koizumi may be hoping
that he can temporarily neutralize right-wing elements
in his party while he searches for a compromise deal
that will satisfy both sides.
Solving the
problem and improving relations with Moscow is
definitely in Japan's interest if it wishes to tap into
Russia's extensive energy resources. There is also a
growing desire in both countries to counterbalance
China's ever-expanding military and economic power in
the region.
Partial return of territory an
option An eventual solution will probably involve
some kind of partial return of territory with perhaps an
element of shared sovereignty. Since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, Japan has put forward a range of proposals
incorporating these concepts. During former Russian
president Boris Yeltsin's visit to Japan in October
1993, an agreement was signed with prime minister
Morihiro Hosokawa that pledged both sides to seeking a
resolution of the dispute.
Since then Tokyo has
suggested drawing a national borderline between Russia
and the disputed territories, while granting Moscow the
right to govern the islands for a lengthy period. In
November 1997 during the Krasnoyarsk summit in Russia,
prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto put forward an idea
under which Russia would acknowledge Japan's sovereignty
over all the islands, but they would remain under
Moscow's control for about 10-20 years.
There
have also been discussions about returning the Habomai
islets and Shikotan Island to Japan in parallel with
separate talks on the issue of Kunashiri and Etorofu
sovereignty. However, Russia has expressed little
interest in any of these initiatives.
Judging
from past negotiations, Moscow is only willing to agree
to the return of the Habomai group of islets and
Shikotan Island. In fact, the return of these two has
long been agreed by the 1956 Japan-Soviet joint
declaration, which stipulates that both territories will
be returned to Japan upon the conclusion of a peace
treaty. Thus the core of the territorial issue lies with
the return of Kunashiri and Etorofu. This explains
Koizumi's reluctance to discuss the details of any
potential agreement.
Terrorism may scupper an
agreement From a Japanese perspective an
agreement seems possible, with Koizumi keen to make his
mark in history by resolving the issue. Should Moscow
and Tokyo both be able to make the necessary
concessions, then a permanent settlement could be
reached. A peace treaty would certainly boost both
countries' growing convergence of economic interests in
the region.
However, after the latest upsurge in
Chechen-related terrorism, giving up sovereignty and
territory, even remote islands, may be too much for
Putin at this juncture. As has happened in the past,
attempts to settle this long-standing dispute may yet
again flounder.
Professor Junichiro Fujiwara, a
member of a Hokkaido-based regional research institute,
said, "The timing of Koizumi's visit is tragic. After
the terrorist bloodbath we have witnessed in Russia in
recent weeks, the trip is more likely to inflame
relations than create the conditions for a bilateral
settlement."
J Sean Curtin is a
GLOCOM http://www.glocom.org/ fellow at the
Tokyo-based Japanese Institute of Global
Communications.
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