Japan edges closer to N Korea
sanctions By J Sean Curtin
Intense media coverage of the North Korean
abduction issue has generated unprecedented levels of
public anger in Japan and is threatening to derail
Tokyo's cautious approach toward Pyongyang. Momentum is
rapidly building for the withholding of food aid and the
imposition of economic sanctions on the Stalinist state.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is resolutely trying to
pursue a pragmatic approach with his unpredictable
neighbor, but calls for tougher action are becoming so
loud they are getting hard to ignore. Nuclear-nascent
North Korea has warned that it would treat any form of
sanctions as a declaration of war.
Despite the
immense diplomatic risks and potential dangers, signs
are emerging that Tokyo is being inexorably pushed
toward shifting its policy. Both countries now find
themselves caught in a dilemma, whatever course either
of them takes, bilateral relations seem destined to
deteriorate.
In the late 1970s and early 1980s,
North Korean agents abducted an undetermined number of
Japanese nationals; Tokyo currently officially
recognizes 15 victims, and most of their fates have yet
to be determined, to Tokyo's satisfaction. They are
believed to have been kidnapped in order to teach
Pyongyang agents Japanese language, idioms and customs.
The fundamental problem is that the Japanese
public does not believe Pyongyang's accounts about the
missing citizens. In fact, the more snippets of
information North Korea provides, the less Pyongyang is
believed, and the more difficult it becomes for Tokyo to
maintain a moderate line.
Early this year
Japanese lawmakers approved a bill enabling the
government to impose economic sanctions on any country
considered a threat to Japan's security, meaning North
Korea. The bill amends the Foreign Exchange and Foreign
Trade Control Law and would allow Tokyo to halt trade,
block cash remittances to North Korea and even halt
ferry service.
Many ordinary Japanese, who
usually have little interest in foreign affairs, are
passionate about the abduction issue and fervently
believe the time has come to initiate such action. It is
difficult to describe the sheer strength of public
feeling on this issue, which cuts across all ages.
Worker Takahiro Kitamura expresses a very widely
held view. He told Asia Times Online, "We have
repeatedly asked them to give us the facts, but all they
are giving us are poor-quality lies. They are adding to
the pain of the abductee families and insulting the
Japanese people. We have simply had enough of this, we
just cannot trust anything they say. Put sanctions on
them. Maybe then they will start telling the truth."
Yuko Usui, a young nurse, is typical of many
people who have been deeply moved by the plight of the
abductee families. She says, "All they want is to know
what happened to their loved ones. They have suffered so
terribly, I feel like crying with them and sometimes I
do. All they want is the truth and that is the only
thing North Korea will not give them."
Noriko
Kurihara, a young businesswoman, makes another commonly
heard observation. "They are giving us the same kind of
crazy propaganda they feed their own people and expect
us to believe it," she says. "Do they think Japanese
people are stupid? We have scientists who can easily
detect their faked evidence, so why do they keep
producing it? " She adds, "Maybe in a country like that
there is no difference between fact and fiction."
The press and leading lawmakers also articulate
this public sentiment. In a recent editorial, the
Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's most popular daily newspaper,
wrote, "North Korea's explanations are full of
contradictions, and according to the results of a recent
poll conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun, more than 80% of
voters do not believe that Pyongyang conducted a serious
investigation into the fate of the Japanese abductees
... Japan also must increase pressure on North Korea by
being ready to impose economic sanctions on the country
whenever it gives us unconvincing explanations."
To successfully resolve the abduction issue, the
habitually secretive state must provide comprehensive
and verifiable information on the fates of the missing
Japanese citizens who it admits to abducting during the
1970s and 80s.
Pyongyang says it has repatriated
the five surviving abductees and that the remainder are
dead. However, the scant information it has so far
provided to substantiate its claims has frequently
proven to be contradictory, untrustworthy or simply
fabricated.
The latest example of Pyongyang's
duplicity is the photographs it recently presented to
Tokyo of the purportedly deceased abductee Megumi
Yokota, who was kidnapped in 1977 at the age of 13. It
is now believed that one of the three photos, which it
is claimed were taken of the young woman while she
endured captivity, may be a composite, doctored to hide
a scene or a person in the original picture. This is the
latest in a whole series of highly damaging revelations
and has only entrenched the public's extremely deep
mistrust of anything North Korea says and intensified
demands for economic sanctions.
The abductees'
families, especially Shigeru and Sakie Yokota, the
parents of missing Megumi Yokota, have also been
phenomenally effective in exposing the numerous flaws in
Pyongyang's evidence, completely demolishing its already
rock-bottom credibility. The Yokotas are currently
appearing at venues up and down the country demanding
that sanctions be imposed. After the visit of a Japanese
delegation, Pyongyang sent back what it said were the
ashes of Megumi and another person for DNA analysis.
Japan appears to have reached the stage where
virtually nobody believes anything Pyongyang says.
Influential political figures such as Shinzo Abe and
Takeo Hiranuma, both leading candidates to succeed
Koizumi, are also vigorously calling for sanctions. The
major opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan,
has also adopted an aggressive stance, significantly
adding to the gathering momentum for imposing sanctions.
Senior diplomats are urging caution, warning
that at this stage sanctions or the withholding of a
scheduled 250,000 tons of humanitarian food aid would
exacerbate the situation, extinguish any hope of finding
out what happened to the missing abductees, jeopardize
the six-party talks on halting North Korea's nuclear
program and trigger a potential catastrophe in which
tens of thousands of North Koreans might starve to
death, destabilizing the region and prompting the
unpredictable regime to take dangerous actions.
A Japanese diplomat, who did not wish to be
named, told Asia Times Online, "Our experience in
dealing with this awkward regime indicates that the
imposition of even limited sanctions at this juncture
would most probably be very counterproductive and hinder
both our short-term and long-term objectives and make it
harder to conduct any productive negotiations in the
future."
While diplomatic logic dictates that
economic sanctions would not be effective or advisable,
public opinion is threatening to overturn this policy.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for Koizumi to
maintain his steady pragmatic course. In the last few
days, the situation has reached an almost critical
point, and it is becoming difficult to predict exactly
what will happen next.
At the weekend's
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit in
Chile, Koizumi raised the abduction issue, calling for
help in resolving it: "We want to continue to request
support from APEC on this matter." He also said Tokyo
would continue to urge North Korea to halt its nuclear
development program.
The prime minister appears
reluctant to abandon his carefully calculated approach.
However, unless North Korea suddenly becomes more
forthcoming or the media tones down its strident
anti-Pyongyang rhetoric, Koizumi may have little
alternative than to adopt much tougher tactics.
A week ago, sanctions seemed highly improbable,
now they seem like a real possibility. This is a
development that is worrying for the leadership in both
countries, and alarmingly, neither is fully in charge of
the forces driving the debate.
J Sean
Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based
Japanese Institute of Global Communications.
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